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Possession - it's only the law if you make it a rule

Martin O'Neill will look to mastermind another play-off success
Martin O'Neill will look to mastermind another play-off success

Buzzers at the ready.

Of the eight countries in the World Cup play-offs, which team completed the lowest number of passes in their 10 group games?

The answer is the Republic of Ireland, with 2,134, less than half of Switzerland's tally of 4,842 (they're top of the class), and 416 passes fewer than the second lowest tally of 2,550, which belongs to Northern Ireland.

More damningly, as Denmark boss Age Hareide helpfully pointed out last week, "Ireland has just over 500 successful passes on the last third - we have about 1,100 passes on that part of the (pitch)".

There's no revelation here. Ireland and the North are two sides that know how to live without the ball and who've had a good deal of success playing a brand of soccer that may not be easy on the eye, but has proven to be a headache for slicker, more technically accomplished outfits.

Both O'Neills have built careers on their ability to organise and motivate teams exceptionally well. 

Martin, at Wycombe Wanderers, Leicester City and Celtic, rammed teams with grit and intensity.

Michael broke the glass ceiling with Shamrock Rovers when leading them into the 2011 Europa League group stages before taking a hammer to the mould again last summer when bringing Northern Ireland to the Euros as group winners.

Ireland only enjoyed more possession than their opponents in three of their group games - against Austria at home (1-1), Serbia at home (0-1) and Moldova away (1-3) 

Their sides stand on the brink of historic achievements over the next few days too. It's 27 years since the Republic of Ireland made back-to-back major tournaments, while the North have never achieved that feat, last summer's memorable jaunt to France being their maiden appearance at a European Championships.

So they know what they're doing. They know how to grind it out, restrict and choke opponents and shape teams to believe that even when they're on the ropes, with a strong chin and a wound-up right hook you're always in the fight.

But is there always a fear the plan will get found out? Or will the end continue to justify the means?

"A low possession statistic is really relevant and really indicative of a failing of a manager if the plan is to go out and keep possession," says RTÉ soccer analyst Richie Sadlier.

"So if you're the Barcelona manager, if you're the Ajax manager back in the day, if you're Louis van Gaal and you're managing Man United, and your approach is to keep the ball and you fail to keep the ball and you consistently give it away and your pass completion rate is low, that indicates a problem, a failure of management and a failure of the players.

"However, under Martin O'Neill, he clearly doesn't have this as a priority. I don't think they spend much time in training working on that.

"I think a lot of time and effort is done on being resilient without the ball, being as positionally disciplined as possible, defending for their lives and sticking to the task no matter how much pressure they find themselves under. Those are the qualities that have gotten this Ireland squad to where they've gotten to."

Northern Ireland were desperately unlucky on Thursday. Referee Ovidiu Hategan awarded the Swiss a penalty for a handball no other soul in Windsor Park could see after Xherdan Shaqiri's volley cannoned off Corry Evans' shoulder.

It was a bad decision and it leaves them with huge mountain to climb, but if that was a horrible twist, the pattern of the game went to script.

The Swiss rattled in 23 goals and enjoyed 61% possession rate in their 10 group games. They bossed the ball in Belfast and created the better chances.

The problem the North now face is that they'll travel to Basel on Sunday needing a goal, and when the green wall has to open up, a fluid Swiss outfit can pour through the holes.

It's a dilemma Ireland will also fear. They only enjoyed more possession than their opponents in three of their group games - against Austria at home (1-1), Serbia at home (0-1) and Moldova away (1-3). 

Denmark completed 4,499 passes in a campaign that yielded 20 goals

Given that the Serbs and Austrians both took the lead in Dublin, it should be noted that they subsequently dropped and challenged Ireland to break them down, while Moldova finished bottom of the pile without a win to their name (though they enjoyed plenty of ball in their 2-0 loss in Dublin, where possession was 50-50).

Denmark completed 4,499 passes in a campaign that yielded 20 goals and saw them enjoy an average possession of 58%. Our modest haul of 12 goals is the lowest of the play-off teams. 

If the hosts break the deadlock early on their own patch, we do not look like we've the bullets to plunder a precious away bonus. So expect the visitors to be on lockdown at the Parken Stadium. This is a self-aware animal; every Irishman on the field will go above and beyond to complete a Danish shutout.   

"If you go 1-0 up in Cardiff against Wales, then it doesn't matter how much you keep the ball," says Sadlier.

"Your focus is on defending an keeping a clean sheet because if you do that you win the game. That's what we did. The statistics around possession are kind of irrelevant under Martin O'Neill because he doesn't play a possession-based game. 

"We're light in terms of personnel up front. We're a low, low scoring team. Martin O'Neill will probably turn around and go, 'well you only need one goal if you keep a clean sheet'.

"We're defensively solid, and we did enough to finish runners-up in the group and we deserve to be in the play-offs playing the way we do with a limited enough group.

"We don't have an outstanding, lethal goalscorer at international level so you could say on one hand to be in the play-offs is a big achievement; it's what we set off to do at the start."

Ireland fans north and south have been dieting on a direct style of the game for a while now. Mick McCarthy’s teams could get it down and play but certainly under Trapattoni and now Martin O’Neill the mandate is to play the percentages, even against lower-ranked sides.

But if it feels like both the North and the Republic of Ireland are of a sporting make-up that makes them more comfortable building the canvas than painting it, then exceptions should be considered.

"Some people will say it's a cultural thing. I refuse to believe Ireland players aren't capable of doing it though," Sadlier adds.

"Look at Dundalk play. The majority of the players are Irish, the manager is Irish, they're born, developed and raised in Ireland in an Irish culture.

Of the eight teams in the play-offs, Ireland completed the lowest number of passes  in the group games - 2,134

"They do nothing but play football, possession-based football at a very high level, particularly in the Europa League last year.

"I'd be sceptical of people who say we need to completely revamp the style, we need to completely change the way we play because I think the fundamentals in Martin's team have always been the cornerstone of previous Ireland squads' success.

"The work rate, the attitude, the spirit and the resilience; the difficulty the opposition has in scoring against us. These are things... you can't succeed without them. What we certainly can do is, when you have the ball at your feet, we can find each other better and more often.

"I find that the most frustrating aspect of watching the Ireland squad; the ball is given away cheaply so often.

"That aspect of the style can be improved. I'm not talking about revamping the style or ripping up what Martin has done but certainly that can be improved and people who say it cannot be improved have a woefully low expectation of this Ireland squad."

Live coverage of Denmark v Ireland on RTÉ 2 (7.25pm), live radio commentary on RTÉ Radio 1's Saturday Sport and live blog on RTÉ.ie from 6pm.

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