The time will soon come to stop doing permutations posts.
One wonders whether German sports websites ever gaze across at us in envy with all our sweet permutations content.
Those sad unfortunates are stuck writing about win after monotonous win. No drama and no chance to exercise whatever mathematical chops they possess.
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Wales's 1-0 win in Georgia formally put an end to the already very faint possibility that a draw would have sufficed on Monday.
Ireland know they need to win in Cardiff, a scenario which many have welcomed, believing it will contribute to making Monday evening less hard on the nerves (though knowing Ireland, they will likely score early and then treat to us an excruciating 80 or so minutes of backs-to-the-wall agony).
But what they don't know is whether a win will even be enough.
We compiled an exhaustive list of permutations last week when every team still had two games left to play. Now we return to the matter for the final time.
After the ninth round of games, only three groups outside of our own remain of interest to us. First let's dispense with the groups where second place is assured of a playoff spot.
The groups we can forget about
Before a ball was kicked this week, Portugal were already assured of a playoff spot at worst and may yet overhaul 100 percenters Switzerland at the top of the Group B table if they beat them in Lisbon on Tuesday. Italy got the draw they needed at home to Macedonia and nothing more. They limp into the playoff.
On Tuesday, we stressed that a narrow Sweden win over Luxembourg was the best we could hope for if we had any chance of overhauling Group A's runner-up on goal difference. The Swedes won 8-0 on Saturday night.
Denmark beat Montenegro in Podgorica on Thursday (we wanted the opposite result) and now sit on 13 points in the runners-up table with a goal difference which Ireland realistically can't top.
The most damaging result of all came last night. Belgium's 4-3 win away to Bosnia caused a few social media accounts to get overexcited, forgetting that Greece could slip into second spot by winning in Nicosia. A draw or home win would have cleared the way for us to win in Cardiff and take our spot in the playoff and obviated any need for this post.
Those shrewd Eurovision fanatics nodded their heads wearily, knowing that Cyprus were probably unlikely to step on Greek toes, particularly when nothing much was at stake for them.
The Greeks won 2-1 and move on to 13 points in the runners-up table. They are unable to add to this tally against Gibraltar in the final game but their goal difference, once games against Gibraltar are removed, is +4.
Ireland are rooted on +1 with less goals scored. However, a 3-0 win (highly unlikely, admittedly) would leave us in an identical position to Greece in the second place table with the same number of goals scored and conceded.
In that unlikely scenario, the playoff spot would, believe or not, go to the team who lead on fair play points. A cursory glance at this reveals that Ireland would likely progress as the Greeks have shipped three red cards in this campaign.
Thus, technically, progression is already in our own hands. But we have to win 3-0 away in Wales.
Highly unlikely
Ireland could have done with Northern Ireland shipping a heavier defeat against Germany. The 3-1 loss to the reigning world champions means they are at +5 in goal difference on the runners-up table.
On top of that, they also lead Ireland in the goals scored stakes meaning a five goal swing is required this week if we're going to sneak into the playoff at the expense of our northern neighbours.
Northern Ireland travel to Oslo to play Norway, a nation whose footballing stock has dropped precipitously since the heady days of reaching 2nd in the world over two decades ago.
The crucial games
In reality, there are only two games which Irish fans need to zero in on this week, aside from the match in Wales.
On Tuesday, I said that the permutations in Group I would make a chess grandmaster's head explode and dismissed it as a relative long shot.
Two points separated the top four teams and I wrote we had to hope Turkey somehow beat Iceland and then tripped up away to Finland.
However, in my haste, I overlooked the possibility that Croatia, who were then positioned on top of the Group I table, might stumble at home to lowly Finland.
Incredibly a 90th minute goal from potential Gary Mackay Hall of Fame entrant Pyry Soiri gave the Finns a shock draw in Rijeka, meaning a draw between Ukraine and Croatia in the final round will open up a path for us to reach the playoff.
An awkward complication here is that there might be no incentive for either Ukraine or Croatia to draw the game. Both are level on 17 points and a win for either will likely see them reach the playoffs. Should Ireland and Scotland both win then a draw will be no use to either.
The game kicks off at the same time as the Wales-Ireland, meaning we won't know prior to kick off whether a win will be enough.
Irish fans can happily forget about Kiev if Scotland fall short in Slovenia on Sunday evening. The Scots have a fine tradition of aiding Irish chances when we're sat at home, whether by winning games they weren't expected to win or losing games they weren't expected to lose. Two campaigns is enough to constitute a tradition, in our view.
Martin Skrtel's late own goal in Hampden was disastrous for the Slovakians, meaning they fell out of second place and, for our purposes, are now unable to rise above 12 points in the runners-up table. Their last game is against bottom placed Malta this evening.
Scotland, having lost 3-0 to both England and Slovakia earlier in the campaign, have been torpedoed into the reckoning.
The Scots, with a miserable away record, travel to Slovenia knowing a win will qualify them for the playoffs. Anything less will allow either Ireland or Wales steal ahead of Group F's runner-up.
The Slovenians only lost to a very late Harry Kane goal on Thursday but there could be well justified fears about their motivation. Unless Slovakia somehow fail to beat minnows Malta then they will not be reaching second place in the table regardless.
Kick-off in Ljubljana is at 5.00pm Irish time this evening.
Last chance saloon: the direct route
There is another obvious way in which Ireland could miss out on a playoff place.
If the doughty Georgians pull off a shock of Buster Douglas proportions in Serbia, then a win in Cardiff will allow Ireland to leapfrog the lot and progress to Russia as group winners.
It might be easier to imagine were the game in Tbilisi but even then it'd be a stretch. Serbia won 3-1 in Georgia in March, having trailed at half-time.
A draw in the Serbia-Georgia game and Ireland would need to win 5-0 in Cardiff. Such a result would probably result in a UEFA investigation and can be safely discounted.
Of course, if Ireland lose or draw in Cardiff, then they will also be freed of the necessity of playing in a playoff, regardless of what occurs elsewhere.
Shopping list of results we need
Group F
Slovenia v Scotland (home win or draw)
Group I
Ukraine v Croatia (draw)
Group C
Norway v Northern Ireland (four goal home win)
Group D
Serbia v Georgia (away win)
