Ireland v Serbia, Aviva Stadium, Dublin, 7.45pm
ONLINE
Live blog on RTÉ.ie and the RTÉ News Now App from 7pm.
TV
Live coverage on RTÉ2 from from 7pm. Also available on rte.ie/player (RoI only).
RADIO
Live commentary available on Game On on RTÉ 2fm from 7pm.
WEATHER
Overnight rain will clear and it looks set to be a dry and warm day in Dublin. Highest temperatures of 16c to 18c, cooling by kick-off time, winds light to moderate. A good night for football.
THE GAME
It’s not exactly do or die, but it’s not far off.
Coming on the back of Ireland’s limp draw with Georgia on Saturday, Tuesday’s clash with Serbia at the Aviva Stadium suddenly takes on even more significance.
Ireland go into the game trailing the visitors by two points at the top of Group D with Wales’ victory over Austria leaving them lurking with intent and sitting just two points behind Ireland with three games left to play.
Defeat for Ireland would all but end their hopes of finishing in top spot and claiming the one automatic qualification place on offer for next year’s World Cup, leaving the race for second place very much up in the air and dependant on Welsh results.
A draw would keep Irish qualification hopes chugging along, but would allow Wales to leapfrog Ireland into second place on goal difference if they, as expected, claim victory away to Moldova at the same time Ireland face Serbia.
Taking just a point against Serbia would leave Ireland in a position where they could still potentially top the group, but that would see them hoping for results to go against Serbia in their final two games with Austria and Georgia.
So it’s a win that Ireland realistically need but the question remains whether or not Martin O’Neill will set his side up to go out and really chase the game.
In the aftermath of the draw with Georgia, Jon Walters was eager to remind everyone that Ireland’s fate is very much in their own hands and that should they win their final three games against Serbia, Moldova and Wales then they’re assured of a place in Russia.
That’s easier said than done of course and the first hurdle may well prove to be the trickiest.
SERBIA ARRIVE IN HIGH SPIRITS
Serbia will arrive in Dublin full of confidence. They strolled to a 3-0 win over Moldova on Saturday and appear to be hitting their stride just at the right time.
It’s the final push for the visitors now and they know that if they win against Ireland and Wales fail to beat Moldova, they will be guaranteed of a top two spot and almost certainly assured of a play-off place at a minimum.
Serbia are a decent side with more than a sprinkling of household names and have options in nearly every position on the field. Irish supporters will be familiar with the likes of Branislav Ivanovic, Aleksandar Kolarov, Nemanja Matic, Aleksandar Mitrovic and will be aware of their talent.
Manager Slavoljub Muslin is a manager who likes to set his teams up to attack, favouring a 3-4-3 formation. It’s served him well throughout the qualification process with his side yet to lose a game and outscoring all other teams in the group, averaging more than two goals a game.
Muslin has a settled first choice 11 and doesn’t like to change his line-up needlessly so the Irish defence look likely to have to cope with a front-three threat of Dusan Tadic, Aleksandar Mitrovic and Filip Kostic. Newcastle striker Mitrovic will lead the line the Tadic and Kostic pushing on just behind him, and he already has six goals to his name this campaign.
However, while Serbia favour an attacking and aggressive game, that does leave gaps at the back. Muslin’s team have conceded more goals than both Wales and Ireland and there are concerns over their ability to deal with set-pieces.
Both of Ireland’s in goals in last last September’s 2-2 draw in Belgrade came from free-kicks and O’Neill is certain to target Serbia’s vulnerability at dead-balls along with their problems with dealing with crosses into the box.
WHICH APPROACH WILL IRELAND TAKE?
Serbia’s defensive frailties at set-pieces will influence the line-up that O’Neill chooses and the way he sends them out to play but it remains to be seen to what extent.
The Ireland manager has come in for plenty of criticism given his approach to Ireland’s 1-1 draw in Georgia at the weekend and the inability of his team to keep the ball for any length of time.
O’Neill was more than tetchy when questioned about his tactical approach in the aftermath of that game and there suddenly seems to be building pressure on the manager to move past the long-ball game and adopt a more nuanced approach, but this may not be the game in which he does so.
Supporters and pundits alike have been crying out for the inclusion of Wes Hoolahan but as they were against Georgia, they will likely be disappointed and shouldn’t be too surprised if O’Neill picks the same midfield and forward line as he did on Saturday.
Last September O’Neill selected a midfield of James McClean, Jeff Hendrick, Glenn Whelan, Robbie Brady and Jon Walters behind a lone Shane Long for the 2-2 draw in Serbia and only for the injury to Hendrick forcing him to bring in Harry Arter, went with the exact same six against Georgia.
This appears to be O’Neill’s favoured formation and selection in a game which he views as ‘must-not lose’ and the game in the Aviva falls into that category. Ireland could recover from a draw but to come back from a defeat would be much trickier and given what we’ve seen up until now it’s hard to envisage the Ireland boss sending out a team to attack and take the game to Serbia.
Hendrick has again been ruled out through injury so Arter looks set to start again and while a thigh strain for Jon Walters may force the manager’s hand in terms of team selection, don’t expect to see anything different in terms of approach.
.@corkTOD reports from Abbotstown on Martin O'Neill's press conference ahead of tomorrow's Group D qualifier at home to Serbia #COYBIG pic.twitter.com/mE7JbHO4Gt
— RTÉ Soccer (@RTEsoccer) September 4, 2017
O’Neill has already enjoyed a measure of success against Serbia in targeting them through dead-ball situations and playing with one man up front and you can expect him to employ the same tactics here. Playing a deep defensive line, clearing the ball for Long to challenge for at the earliest occasion and trying to bypass midfield entirely.
It’s ugly, simple and not great to watch but such an approach can, at times, succeed. However if Ireland are to make it work against Serbia, support for Long is going to be crucial and the wide-men like McClean need to start further up the pitch otherwise, as happened against Georgia, the ball will constantly be coming back at the Irish defence.
VERDICT: IRELAND 1-1 SERBIA
It would be nice to be proven wrong, to see Hoolahan named among the starting 11 and for O’Neill to approach the game positively and really have a go at the visitors, but so far in this campaign it’s been safety first in the big games.
Ireland should have the confidence to take on a team like Serbia at home. This is a side, let’s not forget, that haven’t qualified for a major tournament since 2010 and are under pressure t deliver themselves.
The vulnerabilities of that Serbian defence are there to be exploited and however Ireland set-up tactically, they will get chances from free-kicks and corners but whether that’s enough remains to be seen.
Serbia’s front trio will cause problems and if Ireland allow themselves to be as overrun in midfield as they were against Georgia, it could be a long night at the Aviva.
