The Republic of Ireland will be looking to secure their place in next summer’s EURO 2016 in France as they entertain Bosnia & Herzegovina in their play-off second leg tonight at the Aviva Stadium, kick-off 7:45pm (live on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player).
Martin O’Neill’s side have already missed one chance to qualify as this 14-month campaign reaches its conclusion, as they were unable to get a result in Poland last month, which would have seen them go through automatically from Group D.
And while Ireland were just one goal short in Warsaw in their 2-1 defeat – a 2-2 draw would have been enough on the night – O’Neill’s side were undoubtedly second best and could have no complaints having to take the play-off route.
"Ireland need to forget that a scoreless draw will take them through to the France finals"
This time, however, Ireland are slight favourites to progress following their 1-1 draw on Friday night, where they secured a very important away goal, thanks to an excellent Robbie Brady strike under the fog of Zenica.
But let’s not kid ourselves.
If this was any other World Cup or European qualification campaign, Ireland would already have been knocked out, as you always needed a top-two finish to either qualify or make it to the play-offs.
Ireland would have bowed out last month in Warsaw, and on reflection, there really would not have been too many complaints with such a scenario.
Going back to the start of the campaign, it was always seen as a three-horse race between Ireland, Poland and Scotland for second place behind World Cup winners Germany.
Ireland’s head-to-head against the Scots and Poles makes for very disappointing reading as they only managed to take two points from a possible 12 in those four games.
Remarkably, it was Ireland’s superior record against the Group D winners, Germany, which has seen the Boys in Green reach this play-off ahead of Scotland, who also scuppered their own campaign as they lost in Georgia.
But that’s just the Ireland way.
Perhaps if it was only the top two who qualified, we would have seen a much more gung-ho approach to the game in Poland. Who knows?
Third place though was always going to be good enough to guarantee a play-off due to the increased number of teams at next year’s tournament; so reaching this stage was always going to be a bonus after the away defeat to Scotland last November.
The positive nature of Friday’s result has, once again, overshadowed the poor performance that took place in Zenica, especially in the first half as Ireland failed to threaten and allowed the hosts to look much better that they actually are.
Ireland’s left side of Stephen Ward and Robbie Brady were totally exploited in that opening period, while others like Wes Hoolahan, Jeff Hendrick and Daryl Murphy were virtually anonymous with no incisive play taking place inside the attacking third of the pitch. In fact, O’Neill’s side were very lucky to keep it scoreless at half time.
But it was not just the aforementioned players who failed to perform in that opening period, as O’Neill must take a portion of the blame for his formation, which left big gaps between the Irish players and allowed Bosnia to open up his side at will.
James McCarthy and Glenn Whelan sat back in front of the back four but found themselves marking nothing but space, as the home side went with two big men up front with dangerman Miralem Pjanic playing much deeper, pulling the strings from the half-way line.
The hosts hit Ireland down the flanks with the lively Edin Visca doing most of the damage, while Senad Lulic kept pulling Seamus Coleman inside, leaving huge space for Ervin Zukanovic to bomb down the left, rarely tracked by Hendrick.
Ireland got away with it and the manager, to his credit, slowly started to turn things around as a more direct James McClean was sent in to add some clout to the left side, while the real stroke of genius, or perhaps good fortune, was moving Brady inside in place of the ineffective Hoolahan.
And Darren Randolph really started to launch his kick-outs into the low-hanging Bosnian fog, which caused mayhem amongst the defenders and forced a mistimed clearance, which allowed Brady to race through to open the scoring. Was this an instruction from the bench perhaps?
"There is no doubt that Walters will start, so whether he takes on the right side or leads the line remains to be seen"
But the manager was slow to make a change at left-back and the hosts could have taken the lead twice within a minute early in the second half if not for the dedication and determination of centre-half Ciaran Clark and man of the match Richard Keogh.
O’Neill’s counterpart Mehmed Bazdarevic, on the other hand, made some strange decisions as his side went in search of the opening goal. The Bosnia coach withdrew their main threat, Visca, and just added a third striker, which proved pointless, considering the man who was causing all the problems on the right was no longer there to deliver the required crosses.
So now ahead of tonight’s encounter, both coaches have to make the decisions that will decide who takes their place in France next summer, with a number of conundrums facing both managers.
The Bosnia boss only took over the job mid-way through this campaign and admitted that he might have to shuffle things around in the return leg.
And it would appear that Bazdarevic is still undecided on his best starting eleven and will be tempted to bring Everton’s Muhamed Besic or Haris Medunjanin from Deportivo into his side.
But Bazdarevic will surely start once again with two up top and therefore will be unlikely to add any more attack-minded players into his midfield.
O’Neill, on the other hand, has players returning who will strengthen his side, as Jonathan Walters will almost certainly start, with Shane Long and John O’Shea both fit to feature.
The Ireland boss has a huge decision to make in his defence as he must choose whether to bring his captain back into the equation, after O’Shea missed the first leg through suspension.
The Sunderland man was the only player to feature in all ten group games and should, in theory, slot back in alongside Keogh, but the two centre-halves were the real bright lights from Friday night’s game, while the question of O’Shea’s fitness will also cause concern.
There is every possibility that the Ireland manger names a more-changed side than Bazdarevic as he has to address the left-back position, as well as one or two others ahead of kick-off.
Should O’Shea start, there is every chance Clark will be pushed wide to replace Ward, who struggled on Friday, while there is also a strong possibility that Marc Wilson will fill that left-back berth, whether or not Aston Villa’s Clark starts in the middle.
You would also imagine that Brady’s days at left back are over, as the manager certainly appreciates what he is capable of in the opponent’s half, and the Norwich man could find himself with room to roam behind the centre forward following Friday’s performance.
There is no doubt that Walters will start, so whether he takes on the right side or leads the line remains to be seen.
The Stoke City powerhouse has already shown that he can incorporate both roles into his performance, putting the central defenders under pressure when Ireland attack, while tracking back when defending, which shows why O’Neill deems him irreplaceable.
Friday’s game proved that there is very little between the two sides, however, Bosnia & Herzegovina are certainly a lot more that a two-man, Dzeko-Pjanic, team.
Their left side of Lullic and Zukanovic will always cause problems, while Visca will again attack at pace down the right side.
Striker Vedad Ibisevic proved a real handful on Friday night, while Dzeko and Pjanic will both believe that they will get a better rub of the green tonight and be confident of scoring.
And while Bosnia themselves will freely admit that they cannot match Ireland’s team spirit, the packed Lansdowne Road venue is going to give Ireland a real chance of finishing the job tonight.
Bosnia’s home support was excellent on Friday night but failed to really ignite their side, however, the Ireland side will always respond to the simple but very, very effective Come On You Boys in Green chant and once Ireland start with intent, the crowd can really play their part.
Ireland need to forget that a scoreless draw will take them through to the France finals and start with real attacking intent tonight.
The manager has already hinted that he will take that approach and it might convince him to put Brady in behind Long and let McClean bomb forward on the left with Walters coming in from the right to support the striker and put real pressure on a suspect central defensive partnership.
Ireland need to put in the commitment of the Germany game, combined with the approach that they took in the second half of the home game against Poland, and with a passionate crowd behind them, they have every opportunity of maintaining their unbeaten home record to book their place in next year’s European Championships.
Verdict: Ireland
