skip to main content

Permutations: How Ireland can win the Six Nations

London , United Kingdom - 21 February 2026; Ireland players walk out past the 6 Nations Trophy and Millennium Trophy before the Guinness 6 Nations Rugby Championship match between England and Ireland at the Allianz Stadium in Twickenham, England. (Photo B
Could Ireland regain the trophy?

The Guinness Six Nations championship will go down to the final round after an incredible series of results on Saturday.

Round 4 saw two huge upsets with Scotland hammering hot favourites France 50-40 to end their Grand Slam hopes, and Italy pulling off an amazing 23-18 win over England - their first time beating the Red Rose.

Les Bleus could have wrapped up the title with a game to spare but their collapse in Murrayfield means they will likely have to beat England in the final game of the competition in next weekend's Super Saturday to go back-to-back.

There's a complicated series of results that means France (16 points) could win the title even in defeat should Scotland (16 points) and Ireland (14 points) end up on the same total.

Six Nations table after round 4 2026

Scotland will believe they can move into pole position with a win in Dublin to put the extra pressure on France but here we'll go through the most obvious ways that Andy Farrell's side can sneak a third title in four years.

If Ireland beat Scotland in the opening match of the day with a bonus point they'll move top on 19 points and would stay there if France don't take at least three points from their home game against England, the 8.10pm kick-off.

Any manner of win for Les Bleus ends Ireland's chances, while a France-England draw with a try-bonus would yield the three points and their vastly superior points difference (+79 to Ireland's +16) would keep the trophy in Paris (barring an Irish win by 64 points).

dasda

If Ireland were to win without a bonus point they would move to 18 points and then require France to lose without picking up two bonus points, from four tries and a margin of defeat of seven or less.

Ireland could draw and get a try bonus, moving to 17 points in the process.

In that case, they'd need Scotland not to pick up a try bonus to move ahead of Gregor Townsend's side and then hope that France fail to score four tries and lose by more than seven.

One thing for sure is that we'll have a Triple Crown shootout to start things off. Of course, a draw between Ireland and Scotland would scupper that for both teams.

After Saturday's action, we're ruling nothing out.