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Numbers add up for France as Ireland brace for impact

Ireland beat France 32-19 the last times the sides met in Dublin
Ireland beat France 32-19 the last times the sides met in Dublin

Ireland will have to brace themselves for the most fired-up France side imaginable when the sides clash in the fourth round of the Guinness Six Nations on Saturday (2.15pm, live on RTÉ).

This France team is on a mission.

Ireland are three from three so far, while France fell to a late England sucker-punch, this game will likely decide the outcome of the championship.

If Ireland win, then a Grand Slam coronation awaits in Rome.

However, if the visitors prevail, they will welcome Scotland to Stade de France in round five aiming to seal just their second title since 2010.

Ireland were superb in the 38-17 win in Marseille last season but Les Bleus were still coming to terms with their World Cup exit and were without their main man, Antoine Dupont, who had switched to Sevens ahead of the Olympics.

Tadhg Beirne scored Ireland's second try against France last season

Simon Easterby's side need to find their most complete performance since that victory in France last February.

While certain aspects of the wins over England and Scotland were most pleasing, and getting out of trouble in Wales also showed a team capable of thinking their way around the course, they will know France will punish any similar lulls like that occurred in those matches.

"In terms of the standards [Ireland have] set, they’ve probably played better games in the previous 12 months than the last 12 months," former number 8 Jamie Heaslip told RTÉ Sport.

"They’ll have to be on-point for everything. This is an incredibly dangerous French side."

France, second in the table, three points behind Ireland but with a much healthier scoring difference, top the averages charts in points scored per match (47), tries (7), carry metres (891), points per entry to 22 (3.8) and offloads (16.3).

Ahead of what’s expected to be a really tight game, France’s lineout is the best in the competition at 97.4% retention, while Ireland's is the worst at 87.5%.

Meanwhile, the Irish scrum success (85%) is also sixth of six, with France in second on 93.8%.

James Lowe has the most line breaks (8) in the tournament but Ireland are not ranked number one in any of the metrics on the Six Nations website after round three, except joint top in 'red cards’ received, and the player with most missed tackles - Sam Prendergast with a worrying tally of 15.

Fabien Galthie’s side, who claimed a Grand Slam in 2022, have finished second four times over the last five seasons and will know that return is well below their capability.

Fabien Galthie is under pressure to deliver more silverware

"Realistically, a team of this talent should be more than this, this is a huge test for Ireland," said former Ireland hooker Bernard Jackman.

France have scored 21 tries in their three games and start the weekend +63 ahead of Ireland in points difference. Louis Bielle-Biarrey is the top try-scorer with five, while the wing has also provided four assists.

"They are coming here in a rich vein of form," added Jackman.

"They blew 25, 26 points easily against England and their attacking game is transformed.

"The variety, skillset, the pace, the power, the vision, footballing ability they have is amazing, they find space.

"It's the biggest challenge Simon Easterby has had as a defence coach, this French team at the weekend.

"They are arriving here full of confidence, understanding that they have no choice but to win. If they lose to Ireland, their championship dream is over."

Antoine Dupont has been almost unplayable

While the numbers stack up in France's favour, they also have something that can't be counted on their side - the 'Alien' powers of the world's best player.

Dupont is on fire, scoring two tries and assisting six of France’s total, and tops the offload chart with nine.

Key to an Irish success, which would be their third in a row over Les Bleus, is stopping the Toulouse scrum-half - much easier said than done.

"I don't think I've ever seen a player who can dominate games the way he can, it's phenomenal," said Jackman.

"Normally a 9 like that, you can say, 'get in his face and pressurise him’ but he has the full box of tricks.

"He has a very strong fend, he has leg-drive, even against big forwards he can kick off both feet, it's very difficult to stop him."

The bookmakers still have Ireland as one-point favourites; we're set for another classic.

Watch Ireland v France in the Six Nations on Saturday from 1.15pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app. Listen to live commentary with Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1.

Watch Ireland v France in the Under-20 Six Nations on Friday from 7.35pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player.

Watch England v Italy in the Under-20 Six Nations on Friday from 7.35pm on RTÉ Player.

Watch England v Italy in the Six Nations on Sunday from 2.30pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player.