So far, so good for Ireland in their quest for another Guinness Six Nations Grand Slam.
Three from three after comfortable wins against Wales and Italy, together with a dominant victory over France in what was one of the highest quality international matches I've watched live.
The top two ranked teams in the world produced a game of rugby to counter much of the negativity around the sport and provided a timely reminder of the beauty and intensity of Test match rugby.
Before the Six Nations kicked off, like almost everyone else, I saw France as our biggest threat to winning the Grand Slam, followed closely by a potential championship decider against England at the Aviva Stadium on St Patrick’s weekend.
England's bid was completely derailed yesterday evening, but what about Scotland?
Not too many people predicted a Scotland victory at Twickenham and I thought their performance against France, where they could easily have won the game, was another warning shot to anyone underestimating the challenge Ireland face.
I’m not suggesting that Scotland will beat Ireland, but I do think they currently pose much more of a threat than England to another Irish Grand Slam triumph.
History and statistics point to an Irish win this weekend – seven consecutive victories over Scotland, 12 out of 14 Irish wins over the last decade during which time Scotland have only finished higher than fourth once, that in 2018, and Gregor Townsend is still to experience victory as a coach over Ireland.
Your Scotland team to take on Ireland this Sunday 🏴
— Scottish Rugby (@Scotlandteam) March 10, 2023
More ➡️ https://t.co/m44hUJW9jb pic.twitter.com/kKiBdXB8h1
What’s different this year?
Scotland have been very consistent in their team selection and the same backline has started all four games to date, but for me, the selection of Huw Jones for Chris Harris at outside centre highlights a different playing philosophy.
Harris, a player I know well from Gloucester, has become one of the best defensive 13s in world rugby and was one of the first names on Gregor Townsend’s team sheet.
Not this year. With Finn Russell’s recall after being dropped for the November series, players like Jones, Duhan van der Merwe and Stuart Hogg have all benefitted from Russell’s natural attacking flair and they will provide a real test of Ireland’s defensive system.
Talking of Hogg, what an incredible achievement to reach 100 caps.
I’ve always admired his ability as a player, his x-factor has been his point of difference for the clubs he represented, and he’d love to add a championship medal to everything else he has achieved throughout his career.
Very few players need additional motivation to play international rugby, but I’m sure the Scottish squad would love to give Hogg a 100th cap to remember and write their own little piece of history with a first Scottish Triple Crown in 33 years!
However, as outlined above, recent history hasn’t been kind to Scotland and they’re facing an Ireland team that expects to win, and win well.
There aren’t any obvious weaknesses to exploit and despite making six changes for the game, Andy Farrell’s squad looks stronger than ever.
One of the real bonuses of this Six Nations has been the confirmation that Ireland can produce the same levels of performance without some of their world class, well established (I was going to say old!) players, but there is still a certain comfort seeing Tadhg Furlong, Johnny Sexton, Garry Ringrose and Conor Murray back on the team sheet.
After his recent performances, Stuart McCloskey, who Farrell suggested had a slight niggle but might have played if pushed, will be disappointed to miss out on selection for the starting XV, let alone the matchday 23, but again the two British & Irish Lions, Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw, replacing him highlight the depth and quality of squad that Farrell has at his disposal.
The one thing no one can legislate for today is the weather.
Having experienced wet and windy afternoons in Murrayfield, where the swirling wind can make kicking and passing very difficult, both teams may have to refine and manage their game plans throughout the match.
This is where the experience of Murray and Sexton is invaluable and they are better equipped to manage the game, control field position and create scoring opportunities than the Ben White-Finn Russell combination.
I hope that the forecast is wrong and we get an opportunity to watch two in-form teams play their fast paced, high intensity game – if we do, Ireland will win.
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