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Final rounds of Six Nations to throw up big plotlines

There is a lot to play for in next two weeks
There is a lot to play for in next two weeks

After five weeks and three rounds of games, the 2023 Six Nations has turned the corner towards the final two matches, by which point attention will turn to September and the World Cup in France.

Whether it's silverware or pride, there's something on the line for all six countries over the next 11 days, culminating with Ireland's meeting with England on Saturday 18 March at the Aviva Stadium.

Here are some of the major storylines to follow across the final week and a half of the championship.


Ireland's most recent Grand Slam came back in 2018

Can Ireland lay down a Grand Slam mark?

One win from the remaining two games could well be enough for Andy Farrell's side to win the Six Nations, landing a first title for the side since the departure of Joe Schmidt in 2019.

However, after a 12-month period in which Ireland have beaten every major rugby nation in the world, and started the championship with three bonus-point wins from three, this Irish side have set a standard where anything less than a Grand Slam would feel like an anticlimax.

There's a natural inclination to keep one eye on the World Cup later this year, which is largely a result of the Irish rugby public getting their hopes up too early in the past, but the wave of momentum that comes off the back of a Grand Slam is far different to that of a regular title win.

In 2015 Ireland got their hands on the title after a dramatic Super Saturday in which they thrashed Scotland and watched England fall just short of a points target against France, but while Schmidt's side did carry a championship win into that year's World Cup, it didn't carry the same weight after the Grand Slam bid was derailed in Round 4 in Wales.

The importance of a Grand Slam doesn't need much context considering Ireland have only ever won three of them, while 20 years ago even a Triple Crown was viewed as a major success for an Irish team.

Grand Slams in a World Cup year don't come around often either. In the professional era, only Wales in 2019 and England in 2003 have managed a clean sweep in the championship prior to the World Cup and on each occasion they were able to bring their spring form into the Autumn.


Scotland started their Six Nations with a 29-23 win against England

Are Scotland the real deal?

With Gregor Townsend's side in Ireland's World Cup pool, this question has relevance far beyond Sunday's Round 4 meeting at Murrayfield.

The Scots have been the Six Nations' underachievers for far too long, repeatedly talked up by neutrals as the team to watch, only for that prediction to have fallen short within two or three games.

It probably hasn't helped them that for three years in a row now, they've started the campaign against England, and when they toppled Eddie Jones' side in both 2021 and 2022, they struggled to find that emotional pitch a week later.

There was a notable shift in attitude from the players in the moments after their Calcutta Cup win last month though. The celebrations were big, as they always are when Scotland beat England, but the first words out of almost every player's mouth after the 29-23 win were that they were nowhere near their best.

Against France it looked like they were going to be blown apart after a red card and conceding three tries in the first quarter of an hour. But the manner of how they fought back to within touching distance of the reigning champions in the final 10 minutes is a testament to how they've matured in the last 12 months.

It might sound patronising, but a strong performance and a losing bonus-point against Ireland on Sunday, coupled with a good finish to the tournament against Italy six days later would mark a largely positive championship for Townsend and co.

And if they do that, they'll fancy their chances of upsetting one of Ireland or South Africa at the World Cup later this year.


Can Italy inflict another defeat on Wales?

A wooden spoon for Wales?

With England hosting France in 'Le Crunch' on Saturday, and big title ramifications between Scotland and Ireland on Sunday, the early Saturday kick-off between Italy and Wales still has quite a bit on the line.

Almost a year ago to the day, the first few pieces started to fall for Wales when Ange Capuozzo weaved his way through the Principality Stadium to set up Edoardo Padovani's match-winning try in Cardiff (above), and as the sides prepare to meet in Rome this week, Welsh rugby - from the national team to WRU governance - is a crumbling mess.

With Warren Gatland's side set to travel to Paris in the final round, a first winless Six Nations since 2003 is a realistic possibility, and almost a certainty if they lose this weekend.

A wooden spoon would bring more than just embarrassment. Now, more than ever, the WRU need prizemoney, and a bottom of the table finish in the championship would be catastrophic, while they could also slip to an all-time low in the world rankings.

On the flip side, the flashes of brilliance Italy have shown in spite of their defeats to France, England and Ireland means that for the first time in as long as we can remember, Kieran Crowley's side are arguably favourites heading into a Six Nations game. For each of the last three games they've performed admirably against superior opposition, but now it will be fascinating to see how they react to expectation.


Owen Farrell (left) has started ahead of Marcus Smith (right) at out-half in recent games

Borthwick's out-half dilemma

Coming in as head coach in a World Cup year, Steve Borthwick was always going to be caught in a balancing act between the short and long-term.

In Marcus Smith, he has one of rugby's most exciting game-breakers, but also a player that doesn't quite fit into the system he wants to play.

Pairing Smith with Owen Farrell as England's 10-12 combination didn't work against Scotland, but restoring Farrell to the 10 shirt for the wins against Italy and Wales seems to have stabilised the campaign, heading into the two toughest games against France and Ireland.

The real dilemma for Borthwick is only starting though, with George Ford available again after overcoming his long-term Achilles injury. The Sale out-half helped lead Borthwick's Leicester to a Premiership title last season, but while he was included in the wider squad, he hasn't been retained by the England coach in his 27-man group to prepare over the next few days.

Smith looked razor sharp in Harlequins' win against Exeter last weekend, and that might have been what tipped the scales between he and Ford.


France have underwhelmed, despite two wins out of three

Where are France at?

It's been an underwhelming Six Nations from the defending champions so far, and the next two games will go a long way to defining how they will be viewed ahead of the World Cup.

Fabien Galthie's side have produced flashes of brilliance to remind us why they were the hottest team in the game 12 months ago; Damian Penaud's try against Ireland was one for the ages, and some of their broken field attack in that game at the Aviva Stadium had Ireland tackling shadows. In their first 20 minutes against Scotland they looked like a side with a point to prove, and blitzed Gregor Townsend's side for three tries, but after losing the next 50-minute block 21-6, they needed a late Gael Fickou try to make sure of the win.

While they're not the only team to be dealing with injuries in the tournament, they look to be missing Jonathan Danty and Cameron Woki in particular, and with Danty expected to return for Saturday's Le Crunch against England at Twickenham, it will be interesting to see the impact he has on their ability to win collisions in midfield.

England are still a work-in-progress, but Twickenham has been a notoriously tough place for France to visit down the years, with their last win there coming in a pre-World Cup friendly in 2007 and their last Six Nations win away to England way back in 2005.

Should they end that long wait for a win in London on Saturday, their campaign will be moving in the right direction again, particularly with the chance to end on a real high against a troubled Welsh side in Round 5.

But if their poor Twickenham record were to continue, it has the potential to create a lingering doubt around France, which will carry all the way to the World Cup.

Watch live coverage of Scotland v Ireland (Sunday 3pm) on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow our live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app, or listen to live commentary on RTÉ Radio 1.