Ireland are back in action in the Six Nations this weekend, travelling to Rome to take on the dangerously attacking Italians.
Italy are playing a really attractive attacking brand of rugby. They look cohesive with their forward pods and the backs are zipping around in behind to cause trouble, Ange Capuozzo in particular.
Their French scare is proof enough that we won't be seeing wholesale squad rotation and development from Andy Farrell, whose side are still fully focused on finishing this competition with a Grand Slam. They will have to get past the Italian set piece if they are going to take the next step on this journey.
Farrell isn’t one for wholesale changes anyway. He usually gives a player a fair crack within the starting team, with few changes disrupting his assessment of their performance when given a chance.
As a result, I expect him to continue with Conor Murray to partner Ross Byrne. It would be easy to give Craig Casey a start and justify it through the developmental lens, however, Casey has been afforded more minutes than expected as a result of Gibson-Park's injury so the pressure is off there; he will feature but I don’t expect it to be in a starting role. If you’re giving Ross Byrne a fair chance at establishing himself as Johnny Sexton’s back-up, then less changes are crucial to continue the squad dynamic.
Joey Carbery has returned to Irish camp with Sexton’s rehab ongoing. I would expect Farrell to stick to his guns and play Jack Crowley from the bench.
Ronan Kelleher and Bundee Aki are two changes that Farrell can make to share some game time without disrupting the strength of his starting team. Both have occupied starting positions in the past. Farrell has clearly stated that it doesn’t matter who wears the starting jersey, there is faith in everyone, however, you still don’t want loads of changes at once. Both of these changes will allow for competitive positions without giving anyone a free shot.
Dan Sheehan has returned to camp, which may delay Tom Stewart’s debut. Kelleher’s scrummaging ability will be crucial against the Italians and he is due a shot at re-establishing himself after a layoff from international rugby through injury.
The question in the middle of the pitch is which centre Farrell will swap out for Aki. Garry Ringrose has been on his feet a long time now and would be my choice for the rotation. Yet Ringrose has been so key for Ireland that his absence could prove costly along the way. His leadership, his defensive ability and his work rate on both sides of the ball are crucial to Ireland’s performances over the last 12 months.
Stuart McCloskey could do with as many minutes as possible across this campaign so he has as many caps going into the World Cup as possible, besides the fact that he has truly earned a starting spot in the centre of the pitch. There will be change in the centre but we’ll have to see which combination Farrell goes with.
There will be forced change in the second row considering Tadhg Beirne’s injury. Henderson would be expected to return to the starting team, another player who has featured heavily as a starter, meaning it is another change that shouldn’t disrupt what Ireland are creating. Iain Henderson would also guarantee that there are leaders spread throughout the team despite some potential changes.
However, with Beirne out injured, Ryan Baird could be a more similar and athletic replacement. Beirne isn’t your typical international second row, his skillful play and breakdown expertise ensure his selection within this well-oiled pack. Maybe Baird won’t be afforded the same leeway in the second row, but if Ireland were looking for a direct athletic replacement, Ryan Baird would be a great place to start.
This would also free up a back row rotation which will probably be Jack Conan. He hasn’t hit his previous Lions touring form and the performances of Peter O’Mahony and Caelan Doris have made sure not to open the door for the Leinster backrow.
Doris is so important to Ireland that this may be a great weekend to swap him out and protect his fitness and freshness for the rest of the tournament while managing his minutes.
The back three may see one change as well but it is difficult to tell from outside the camp who is the favoured change. Jimmy O'Brien may make his way onto the bench due to his versatility. Himself or Stockdale are the left-footed replacements for James Lowe and Jordan Larmour could well be the replacement for Mack Hansen. However, this is the area of the pitch that I feel will change least with more competitive changes coming elsewhere in the squad.
Whenever there are changes within the team, you have to look at the combinations and balance of units as much as the individuals swapping in. For example, Ringrose could be retained for his leadership qualities and with Sexton out, Ryan or O’Mahony would be favourites to captain the side. This may also force Farrell’s hand in making sure he has enough leaders on the pitch to complement some of the rotations elsewhere.
"You can guarantee that Farrell won't be blotching his Six Nations copybook because of an over eagerness to change the squad"
This is two-fold. The first is to make sure that nothing unravels under pressure in Rome and the second is to ensure that the likes of Ross Byrne and Ronan Kelleher have the security of senior figures around them when trying to stake their claim at a starting spot.
Only those inside the camp will know who are the most important players in terms of World Cup preparations. There’ll be many deserving players losing out on yet another cap. Some through injury, but some because of the squad depth that Farrell has and the fact that his past form would go against multiple changes for a tough showdown in Rome.
Players like Gavin Coombes, Jordan Larmour, Cian Prendergast and Co. might have to wait for another tournament to get their names back in the Test team, despite deserving a chance.
You can guarantee that Farrell won’t be blotching his Six Nations copybook because of an over eagerness to change the squad.
Ireland will be heavy favourites going into this game but Italy have the ability to cause trouble. A tough challenge awaits.
Watch live coverage of Italy v Ireland (Saturday 2.15pm) on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, follow our live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the RTÉ News app, or listen to live commentary on RTÉ Radio 1.
Watch live coverage of France v Scotland (Sunday, 3pm) on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player.
