What's a realistic target for Ireland in this Guinness Six Nations?
Captain Johnny Sexton was asked on Wednesday if they’d been so bold as to approach their coach with a mission statement, as they did with Joe Schmidt prior to the ultimately successful Grand Slam in 2018.
"We’re no different to any other team, all teams have sat down when they met up, got together and set some targets, goals. We did it," he said.
"We’re not going to go shouting from the roof top."
A clean sweep, with last season’s top two, France and England at home? Hard to imagine.
A championship? You can bet your bottom dollar that’s what’s in the minds of Sexton and co.
"You are not coming in here, saying, 'God, I hope we finish third or second’," he added.
Ireland's last away championship win over Wales came in 2013 and although the vanquished that day went on to claim the title, if Ireland lose this afternoon, they’ll be in a battle for a runners-up spot.
Scotland's win over England yesterday, impressive as it was, doesn’t spell the end of Eddie Jones' men for this year.
In fact, with France at home they still fancy being in with a shout by the time they come to Dublin on the final day.
Since 2018 England have had Ireland figured out and in four consecutive defeats the men in green were not within touching distance at the end, never mind what the scoreline read.
France are the form horse in this race, building nicely for a home World Cup in 2023, and but for a shock loss to Scotland last season, would have been Grand Slam champions.
Wales v Ireland: All you need to know
Les Bleus didn’t mess around yesterday either, running seven tries past an Italy side on a miserable 28-match losing streak in this competition.
At this stage, let's just say, the Italians must be mighty glad that Rome is a spectacular city to visit every other year.
Andy Farrell’s side will feel they are capable of winning the three away games, against Wales, Italy and Scotland (and who knows what shape they’ll be in in round 4), given recent results and where they consider themselves to be as a team.
They are the kind of tough wins that are taken as a given when talk of championship success arises.
It’s then down to upsetting one of France or England in Dublin.
But getting off to a good start this afternoon against a Welsh side, who are struggling to forge a new identity under Warren Gatland’s successor Wayne Pivac, is the key.
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Ireland have been notoriously slow starters in Six Nations. Taking a big win over Italy in 2015 out, you have to go back to 2014 against Scotland to find a first-round win by more than seven points.
Even the 2018 success over what was then a ramshackle French outfit came down to a miracle play and bit of magic by Sexton at the death.
The last championship meeting at the Principality between the sides ended with Wales claiming the 2019 Grand Slam in what was one of the worst Irish performances of the Joe Schmidt era.
However, since then Wales have struggled badly against the Irish.
In fact, they have now lost the last four in a row, starting with two World Cup warm-ups, and including a comfortable 24-14 Irish win in last season's Six Nations and a 32-9 victory in the Autumn Nations Cup in mid-November, both of those games being played in Dublin.
Pivac, who took over from Gatland following their World Cup campaign, in which they got to the semi-final, has only won three games from his 10 in charge, those victories coming against Italy (2) and Georgia.
The Kiwi impressively led the Scarlets to a Pro12 victory in 2017, accounting for both Leinster and Munster in Dublin on the way but has struggled to follow Gatland’s fine record with the national team.
"He's had a tough time," former Wales wing Shane Williams told RTÉ's Game On.
"He was building for the future, building for the World Cup, blooding a lot of players.
"The public were like, people aren't having enough time to solidify their place. They're having one cap, then they're being thrown out."
Sexton's love for Six Nations still strong
There’ll be no talk of World Cups in the Ireland camp. Sexton is still the man in situ at out-half and he’ll be 38 come France 2023.
The path to that elusive semi-final spot looks more difficult than ever, with either France or New Zealand likely to stand in Ireland’s way.
Farrell knows now his tenure will be judged on Six Nations success so all eggs go in the one basket.
On paper, this game is Ireland’s to lose. They are just in a better place at the moment. The boost that Wales got two years ago from their brilliant fans singing their hearts out will be missing.
If home support has an effect, and God knows they all say it does, then the opposite must apply too.
Winning a crucial penalty, getting a steal on your own line, driving a man back in a tackle, all set to be greeted by a few whoops and hollers from team-mates and some fake PA din, in a cavernous stadium, which will have its roof open.
Ireland struggled throughout 2020 in their lineout and the addition of Paul O’Connell cannot but help in that department.
"I certainly hope I’ll have an impact on the lineout but a big part of lineout is experience," said the legendary former Ireland lock.
Wales, who welcome back captain Alun Wyn Jones following injury, had the best lineout of all the teams in last year’s renewal with an 89% success rate so O’Connell has his work cut out today. Achieving parity and not blowing the big ones is the goal.
Jacob Stockdale and Caelan Doris would likely have started if fit and that means Hugo Keenan is named at full-back with Josh van der Flier coming into the back-row.
James Lowe hasn’t played since the England game in November but is favoured ahead of Jordan Larmour.
There's a recall for 33-year-old back row Dan Lydiate for Wales, while Josh Adams misses out after breaking Covid-19 safety guidelines.
The winger was top scorer at the 2019 World Cup but has been suspended for two games by Wales.
Lions star Liam Williams is also serving a suspension for dangerous play in the Pro14.
George North, meanwhile, starts in the centre and Gloucester winger Louis Rees-Zammit starts his first championship Test.
In total Wales start with a record 874 caps in their team, compared to 703 for the Irish.
There has been plenty of pundits willing to talk down Wales’ chances this afternoon and Ireland will be in trouble if even the slightest hint of that hubris has seeped into the camp.
Farrell says he won’t allow it. On the media commentary, he says: "I suppose that's the way of the world, isn’t it? We are realistic and understand that’s what happens.
"As far as the two camps, we know the truth. We know it’s going to be a war of attrition.
"We know that we haven't won there since 2013, which says a lot and we’re expecting Wales to be 100% at their best."
Ireland have lost their last three away games in the Six Nations and have never lost four in a row on the road.
But avoiding that unwanted record won’t be the driving force.
If they don’t want to go through the motions for the next seven weeks, either talking up mathematical chances, or in the event of a second defeat next week, spouting about how each Test match is important in its own right, or the 'great to stop England winning it in Dublin’ line, which admittedly is good fun, then getting the job done today is a must.
That will drive them to victory.
Verdict: Ireland
Wales: Leigh Halfpenny, Louis Rees-Zammit, George North, Johnny Williams, Hallam Amos, Dan Biggar, Tomos Williams; Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis, Adam Beard, Alun Wyn Jones (capt), Dan Lydiate, Justin Tipuric, Taulupe Faletau.
Replacements: Elliot Dee, Rhodri Jones, Leon Brown, Will Rowlands, Josh Navidi, Gareth Davies, Callum Sheedy, Nick Tompkins.
Ireland: Hugo Keenan, Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe, Johnny Sexton (capt), Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rob Herring, Andrew Porter, Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan, Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier, CJ Stander.
Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Tadhg Furlong, Iain Henderson, Will Connors, Jamison Gibson-Park, Billy Burns, Jordan Larmour.
Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
