Nothing less than a winning bonus-point will do for Ireland when they face Italy in Rome later today (kick-off 2.25pm, live on RTÉ Radio 1 and RTÉ2).
Championship ambitions rest on leaving Stadio Olimpico with five points in the bag ahead of a two-week break before the French come to town.
Only twice before in Six Nations history has a team finished top of the pile after an opening-round loss, France in 2006 and Wales in 2013.
Routinely described as a potential banana-skin fixture, there’s little danger of Ireland being caught on the hop here.
Joe Schmidt tried hard to hide his absolute frustration at last week’s defeat in Murrayfield and that extra energy will have been directed at his charges during the week; they’ll know that failure is not an option this afternoon.
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Ireland’s regular wins over Scotland had led to an expectation, amongst the fans at least, of a hard-fought but ultimately successful visit, and it could be argued that feeling fed into the team in Edinburgh.
Previous to last Saturday, Ireland had faced Scotland in the final fixture of the last two Six Nations.
With nothing to play for, the Scots duly obliged with a good scrap for an hour before falling to defeats, which would have yielded bonus points for Ireland had that system been in place.
The year before was also comfortable for Ireland, 28-6. Something similar was expected again.
So one of the concerns for a coach who has such a reputation for attention to detail was the failure to account for how pumped up for the game Scotland would be.
Here's the Ireland team for @SixNationsRugby v @Federugby #TeamOfUs #ShoulderToShoulder pic.twitter.com/Em9HTpNydA
— Irish Rugby (@IrishRugby) February 9, 2017
The hosts were without an opening-round win for 11 years; had a home game at the start of the championship, a boisterous crowd. It all fed into the feeling that, in the hunger stakes, Scotland were ahead.
All they needed was a good start and Schmidt possibly missed a trick in not varying up the initial plays. The Scottish forwards, high on adrenaline, all wanted and needed an early tackle to get them into the game.
Ireland, through the direct running from first phase from the forwards, duly obliged.
“All you need is a couple of lunatics on the Scottish side who were prepared to put their body on the line,” was former Ireland international David Corkery’s summation on the RTÉ Rugby podcast.
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It was a bomb that could have been defused with some variance in the first 10 or 15 minutes, not giving them targets to hit, but the stage was set and by the time Ireland found their feet all Scotland needed was a solitary score in the second half to secure the win.
The Dark Blues’ improvement in quality over the last two years, added to that evident extra desire, meant they were always in with a puncher’s chance.
That doesn’t apply to Italy.
Although Ireland are weaker without Johnny Sexton, who sits out with a calf strain, the loss is not as dramatic as it would have been a year or so ago
He had his critics last week but Paddy Jackson is a different animal now than 12 months ago.
The Ulster out-half made four clean breaks last week, more than any other player in week one, and scored an excellent try. No one would argue he's a better player than Sexton but he'll do a job against Italy.
After much hype ahead of last week’s game, Conor Murray had a subdued 80 minutes and the chances of that happening two weeks in a row are slim.
Donnacha Ryan’s inclusion in the second row, at the expense of the injured Iain Henderson, should settle the lineout but in any event the Azzurri don’t have the disruptive powers that Vern Cotter’s men do.
One can also imagine that CJ Stander will be looking to make a bigger impact, even thought the stats show his 24 carries last week was the third highest in 6N history.
In the front row, Cian Healy makes a rare start and he’ll want to regain the number one loosehead spot over provincial team-mate Jack McGrath, who drops to the bench.
Unfortunately, captain Rory Best, sidelined for training yesterday with a stomach bug, has failed to recover in in time. The loss of 101 caps of front row experience is nothing to be sniffed, espcially given that Niall Scannell is uncapped. Replacement James Tracy has one cap.
Sergio Parisse, who has recovered from a neck injury against Wales, will win his 123rd cap, and remains Italy’s only world-class player.
#Italrugby, quattro cambi per ospitare @irishrugby sabato a Roma nel secondo turno del #6 Nazioni#ITAvIRE pic.twitter.com/WlkB23FPBT
— Italrugby (@Federugby) February 9, 2017
The captain helped Conor O’Shea’s side keep Wales at bay for just over half the match but then indiscipline let them down and prop Andrea Lovotti was binned after his fifth infringement, a common trait when things aren’t going the right way.
Schmidt talked up the O’Shea factor – the Italy coach played 35 times for Ireland between 1993 and 2000 – but he’s a long-term planner and his aim will be to get a performance from his side, first and foremost.
O’Shea, speaking to Shane Horgan in an RTÉ Sport interview you can watch below, insisted that last week’s loss “wasn’t the same old Italy” but since beating Ireland in 2013, they have lost all their 6N home games, by an average margin of 26 points.
Italy may be on the start of an upward curve but there is a world of difference between knowing what is coming and being able to do something about it.
Italy are not there yet.
WHAT THEY SAID
Conor O’Shea: “I know when we play our best and everyone else plays their best, we lose. That’s a fact. I can’t get away from that.”
Joe Schmidt: “We trained with Harlequins in the World Cup. I think Conor got a good look at how we train and what we try to do. He potentially can use that to his advantage now.”
Watch Ireland v Italy live on RTÉ2 from 1.30pm Saturday, listen live on Radio 1's Saturday Sport and follow our live blog on RTE.ie/the News Now app
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