By Tadhg Peavoy
While Italy should have beaten England, they were completely outplayed by both France and Ireland, and more than any other team in this year’s tournament, they look a side struggling to gain their footing.
The Azzurri’s pack and defence were solid for the duration against England, and for periods against Les Bleus and Ireland. But in reality they make too many individual errors and handed the opposition too much advantage from nine to 15, and in open play.
Wales, by contrast, are a side that are playing a New Zealand-type brand of rugby. They hold on to the ball, retain in phases, and exert a defence that strangles the opposition of the ball.
They look like a side hurtling towards a Grand Slam and Jacques Brunel’s Italy will need to give the performance of the championship to cause an upset at the Millennium Stadium.
Italy have had the ability to cope with Wales’s creative style in the past, with the Azzurri winning in Stadio Flaminio in 2003 and 2007. They also secured a draw in the Millennium Stadium in 2006. In the last four encounters, however, Wales have looked by quite some distance the better team.
Following Italy’s hammering in Dublin, Brunel has reshuffled his deck and opted for a fresh approach. Kristopher Burton’s inclusion for Tobias Botes at outhalf will lend Italy more security both in defence and with a kicking game. He seems the right choice at ten.
Fabio Semenzato comes in at scrum-half, as Brunel seeks to get quicker delivery from the breakdown, while Gonzalo Canale will start at second centre.
The most notable inclusion is Mirco Bergamasco on the left wing. His recovery from injury, and inclusion in the first XV, is a huge boost both mentally and creatively.
In the pack, the return of Andrea Lo Cicero and Cornelius van Zyl lends ballast and experience. But Robert Barbieri is very unlucky to lose out at openside flanker to Simone Favaro.
Wales will be without their talisman, leader, inspirer and best player on Saturday. Openside flanker Sam Warburton is out with a knee injury, and the Wales management hope he will return for their final game of the tournament against France.
Justin Tipuric comes in for Warburton, alongside the impressive Dan Lydiate and the powerful Toby Faletau in the back row.
In addition, Matthew Rees returns to the Wales team in place of Ken Owens at hooker. The fit again Rees is a big player for Wales and if he can show form, he will be tacked on to start for the Principality against France.
The Wales backline is unchanged, with first centre Jamie Roberts overcoming a knee injury to start the tie.
Italy will match Wales up front in Cardiff - Sergio Parisse will ensure that. But the questions over whether Italy can live with the pace, dynamism and confidence of the Wales back division persist.
The Italians must stifle the Welsh of possession and make tackles that prevent offloading and drive the opposition back on the attack.
Italy must also hold on to the ball far more and have the patience to go through phases, waiting for the gaps, rather than forcing them to appear. These are large asks, however, and it is hard to see all of them coming to task this weekend.
Prediction: Wales 30-10 Italy
Wales v Italy, RBS 6 Nations, Saturday 10 March, Millennium Stadium, kick-off 2.30pm:
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny 14 Alex Cuthbert 13 Jonathan Davies 12 Jamie Roberts 11 George North 10 Rhys Priestland 9 Mike Phillips 1 Gethin Jenkins (captain) 2 Matthew Rees 3 Adam Jones 4 Alun-Wyn Jones 5 Ian Evans 6 Dan Lydiate 7 Justin Tipuric 8 Toby Faletau.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens 17 Paul James 18 Luke Charteris 19 Ryan Jones 20 Rhys Webb 21 James Hook 22 Scott Williams.
Italy: 15 Andrea Masi 14 Luke McLean 13 Gonzalo Canale 12 Alberto Sgarbi 11 Mirco Bergamasco 10 Kris Burton 9 Fabio Semenzato 1 Andrea Lo Cicero 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini 3 Lorenzo Cittadini 4 Quintin Geldenhuys 5 Cornelius Van Zyl 6 Alessandro Zanni 7 Simone Favaro 8 Sergio Parisse.
Replacements: 16 Tommaso D'Apice 17 Fabio Staibano 18 Marco Bortolami 19 Robert Barbieri 20 Tobias Botes 21 Tommaso Benvenuti 22 Giulio Toniolatti.
