by Brendan Cole
Rampant Wales versus risible England? To really get some perspective on this match, you have to think back to last year's match between these sides. Think of half-time. England, with Jonny Wilkinson steering, were 16-6 up and cruising. Wales had made an impression with the ferocity of their rucking and intensity, it looked like it would be in vain: English precision trumping Celtic passion.
Then? Lee Byrne got a good try before a superb Mike Phillips charge-down on Ian Balshaw for a second got the Warren Gatland revolution well and truly underway. They haven't looked back since. Meanwhile, Brian Ashton's tenure as England coach sustained a blow from which it could never recover. English rugby has been fumbling around in the dark ever since.
Would the Welsh players and coach have formed the bond that now exists between them if England had completed the rout they had threatened to inflict in the opening half? Hard to say.
In any case, the tables are fully turned now and the talk is of Welsh routs and English rugby in crisis. A surefire win for Wales? Maybe, but as with every week in the RBS 6 Nations, the hype and reputations have to be put on the line before the garlands are handed out. There is still some hope for England.
First of all, there has been a subtle shift in Wales's back play. James Hook played the full 80 minutes in last year's game, and also starred in 2007's victory, but is now a clear second fiddle to Stephen Jones while Gavin Henson, another hero of two famous victories over England (2005 and 2008), is another absentee, with injury keeping him out of the squad entirely.
Jones' tackling, kicking, decision making and game sense have, of course, been crucial to the Welsh but without Henson alongside his main weakness – long passing – is more exposed. His technique simply will not allow the quick, flat 20 yarders Henson and Hook throw as a matter of course.
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That was in evidence last week when, even though the 10-12-13 trio of Jones-Jamie Roberts-Tom Shanklin performed well enough in parts, there was a narrowness to the play with full-back Lee Byrne's superb ability to spot a gap and hit it limited. Byrne, like the centres, hits the line hard but he has the priceless ability to run between men and does it wider and faster. Getting him going in those wide channels requires an accurate passer of the ball who can also time it.
England will surely have noticed that both Roberts and Shanklin are naturally inclined to angle runs inwards rather look to the wide spaces. They are armour piercing players but if that challenge can be met with strong tackling, Wales may find themselves in the rare situation of being on the back foot and, possibly, corralled.
Hook is on the bench, and capable of playing at out-half or first centre, so Wales have the option of trying to light it up in the fourth quarter or earlier. But with the balance of power in rugby shifting towards attack, leaving out Hook, their most potent passer of the ball available, may yet prove costly. Ironic, given Gatland's accusation that England have 'regressed'.
In the Welsh pack, the return of captain Ryan Jones at blindside is a plus but his fitness, and the question over how his calf will hold up on the heavy Cardiff pitch, must be a concern. Number eight Andy Powell carried a lot of ball against the Scots but was not the one man wrecking ball we saw in November while at openside, key man Martyn Williams didn't seem to enjoy what was a disjointed and frustrating game. Again, that diminished passing game is a concern for him as he thrives on momentum and width. The English back-row of Joe Worsley, Nick Easter and James Haskell is obviously a touch 'blindsidey' and has 'negative rugby' written all over over it, but that may be enough. They will tackle hard and not wilt early on as some of the Scots appeared to do.
The back row picks obviously hints that upsetting Wales, rather than playing into their hands by trying to play open rugby, is the gameplan. It may work; who can blame them?
As with last year, the clash of the tight-fives will be critical. Alun Wyn Jones was the best tight-forward on the field that day, driving Wales on even as the points flew over his head via Wilkinson's boot, and he and Ian Gough have a drive and power that England's lankier, more loping duo of Steve Borthwick and Nick Kennedy will struggle to match.
There is a chance that England will opt to put the ball into touch instead of playing along at the ping pong game, and that could shift the balance slightly. That said, England would need to kick very well to get the ball both long and off the field with the long punting Byrne at the other end.
If lock is 'advantage Wales', the front-row is a tighter contest. England have bloody-mindedness where Wales have a little more dynamism in Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones but a big game from Andrew Sheridan in particular could tilt the balance his side's way.
Any creativity England can call on is centred on Riki Flutey at 12. He can launch Mike Tindall, who, like Shanklin opposite him, can make a surprising amount yards, but is also capable of releasing his full-back and wings. If they get a run, Delon Armitage and Paul Sackey are a handful and Mark Cueto can usually be relied on to do the right thing. They have no Shane Williams, now ruled out of the match and replaced by Mark Jones, or Byrne, while Leigh Halfpenny is a useful player on the far side but again, the supply of ball through the centres rather than the personnel at the end may prove key. If England can get themselves moving, Wales will not enjoy being put on the back foot. Andy Goode is functional but Harry Ellis and Mike Phillips both have a threat about them. Again, whichever side can get on the front foot in the tackle and breakdown will see the best of its scrum-half.
Wales are favourites and a real top performance would almost certainly see them win but England are set up to disrupt them and may well do so. This is becoming a tighter match by the minute and with England possibly having a mental edge, they may just be able to take advantage of that.
Wales v England in the RBS 6 Nations Championship at the Millennium Stadium, Saturday, February 14, 5.30pm.
Wales XV: Lee Byrne; Leigh Halfpenny, Tom Shanklin, Jamie Roberts, Mark Jones*; Stephen Jones, Mike Phillips; Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rees, Adam Jones, Ian Gough, Alun-Wyn Jones, Ryan Jones (captain), Martyn Williams, Andy Powell.
Replacements: Huw Bennett, John Yapp, Luke Charteris, Dafydd Jones, Dwayne Peel, James Hook, Andrew Bishop.
* Replaces Shane Williams due to injury.
England XV: Delon Armitage; Paul Sackey, Mike Tindall, Riki Flutey, Mark Cueto; Andy Goode, Harry Ellis; Andrew Sheridan, Lee Mears, Phil Vickery, Steve Borthwick (captain), Nick Kennedy, James Haskell, Joe Worsley, Nick Easter.
Replacements: Dylan Hartley, Julian White, Tom Croft, Luke Narraway, Paul Hodgson, Toby Flood, Mathew Tait.
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Touch judges: Alan Lewis (Ireland), Peter Fitzgibbon (Ireland)
TMO: Simon McDowell (Ireland
