For the second year in a row, Ulster's season will end early. But it can still end on a high.
Considering that with four rounds to go in the URC they were well on track for a possible home-quarter-final, their run of three defeats and a draw to close out the league has taken some air out of their balloon after what had been a season of real promise.
With one game left to play in the 2025/26 season, that promise can still be fulfilled, and a very long wait could be ended.
It would be interesting to go back in time to September and offer Richie Murphy the season Ulster have had; narrowly missing out on the URC play-offs with a late tail-off in form, but a Challenge Cup final against Montpellier, where a win would secure their Champions Cup spot for next season, and also end their 20-year trophy drought. He may well have teken it.
In fairness, the only way was up after last season, where they finished 14th in the URC in Murphy’s first full season in charge. With his own backroom team behind him, this was the year where the former Ireland U20 head coach could really be judged.
He put his reputation on the line in how he put his coaching ticket together, getting his Ireland U20 band back together again, with Mark Sexton, Jimmy Duffy and Willie Falloon back on board, and while forwards coach Duffy will be departing at the end of this season for personal reasons, they have been a team with a real identity this season.
He also made a bold call to hand the keys of the backline to his 21-year-old son Jack at out-half, and his composure under pressure this season could still catch the eye of Ireland head coach Andy Farrell before the summer.
For large chunks of this season, Ulster have been the media darlings of the Irish provinces, but for large chunks of the season they have played the most entertaining rugby.
Farrell clearly agreed, and Ulster put their stamp back on the Ireland team in the Guinness Six Nations. Stuart McCloskey was nominated for player of the championship, and his form has been recognised further this week by winning the Rugby Players Ireland Men’s Player of the Year.
Additionally, Rob Baloucoune reestablished himself as Test star, Tom O’Toole was a saviour in the loosehead injury crisis, Nick Timoney consistently impacted off the bench, Nathan Doak made his debut and Bryn Ward earned a call-up over the course of the championship, while Tom Stewart and Jacob Stockdale were also back in the mix.
They had a fast start to the URC, with four wins from their first five games, the pick of which was a 34-26 win away to the Sharks.
Their attack under Sexton also thrived, scoring a try bonus-point in nine of their first 11 games of the season across the URC and Challenge Cup, and contributed heavily to Baloucoune (below) and Stockdale getting back into the Irish squad.
It’s no coincidence that their form has started to flag since the Six Nations as they felt the pinch of players needing to be rested, while their squad depth was further tested with a brutal run of injuries.
Some of those injuries have come and gone; Baloucoune has returned ahead of schedule from his broken wrist picked up on Six Nations duty, while Timoney, O’Toole, Jude Postlethwaite, James Hume and Australia international Angus Bell all missed time since mid-April.
All five of those players are fit and available for this evening’s final against Montpellier, but Murphy will have to do without four of the province’s most important players for the most important game of the year.
McCloskey and Jacob Stockdale have both been ruled out with the injuries they suffered in the semi-final win against Exeter, while Rob Herring picked up a knock against Glasgow Warriors last week. Captain Iain Henderson has also been ruled out due to suspension after his 20-minute red card against the Stormers a fortnight ago.
While there can be no complaints over Henderson’s suspension, it’s a cruel blow for four of Ulster’s longest-serving players to miss out on the opportunity of playing for the province’s first title since 2006, having endured some of the province’s lowest days across the last decade and a half.
Ulster were a whisker away from picking up the win they required against both the Stormers and Glasgow in recent weeks, with Murphy (above) taking a particular gamble for last week’s defeat to the Warriors, where he held back several frontline players on the bench, with one eye on this fixture.
If they get the job done this evening, the gamble will have worked. As valuable as Champions Cup qualification and a play-off spot in the URC is, the prospect bringing silverware back to Belfast is worth pushing the chips in.
Since Mark McCall led the province to the 2006 Celtic League, there is a long and high-profile list of head coaches and directors of rugby who have tried and failed to get a trophy back to Ravenhill. Murphy will be in elite company if he can do it.
The added layer to tonight’s game is that an Ulster win may well steal Connacht’s place in the Champions Cup for next season, after they finished eighth in the URC ahead of Ulster. Should that happen, Stuart Lancaster’s side would have to win the URC outright to relegate the Lions down to next season’s Challenge Cup.
Their opponents Montpellier showed against Connacht where their strengths lie, as they dominated up front when the sides met in their quarter-final in April, although they were given a scare by the Dragons in the semis.
Joan Caudullo’s side appear to be timing their run well as they aim to compete on multiple fronts, winning seven game in a row in all competitions, and they are second in the Top14 with two rounds of the regular season left to go.
Winners of this competition in 2021, and the Bouclier de Brennus in 2022, Montpellier have shown how a Challenge Cup title can be a propellor to something even bigger.
Their squad is littered with experienced internationals, among them former England number 8 Billy Vunipola, Australian pair Jordan Uelese (hooker) and Tom Banks (full-back), Scottish scrum-half Ali Price, and rangy Wales lock Adam Beard on the bench.
Their supply to the French national side is small, but back row Lenni Nouchi featured in four of France’s five games if the 2026 Six Nations, as they retained their title.
Ulster’s need is greater than Montpellier’s want. That could be enough to tip the scales.
Verdict: Ulster
Ulster: Mike Lowry; Robert Baloucoune, James Hume, Jude Postlethwaite, Zac Ward; Jack Murphy, Nathan Doak; Angus Bell, Tom Stewart, Tom O'Toole; Harry Sheridan, Cormac Izuchukwu; Dave McCann, Nick Timoney (capt), Juarno Augustus.
Replacements: James McCormick, Eric O'Sullivan, Scott Wilson, Charlie Irvine, Bryn Ward, Conor McKee, Jake Flannery, Ethan McIlroy.
Montpellier: Tom Banks; Gabriel N'Gandebe, Arthur Vincent, Auguste Cadot, Donovan Taofifenua; Domingo Miotti, Ali Price; Enzo Forletta, Jordan Uelese, Mohamed Haouas; Florian Verhaeghe, Tyler Duguid; Lenni Nouchi, Alex Becognee, Billy Vunipola (capt).
Replacements: Lyam Akrab, Baptiste Erdocio, Wilfrid Hounkpatin, Adam Beard, Marco Tauleigne, Leo Coly, Thomas Darmon, Jon Echegaray.
Referee: Matthew Carley (Eng)
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