Three weeks is a long time in rugby. Just ask any Ulster supporter.
When the province cruised past La Rochelle on 10 April to book their place in the EPCR Challenge Cup semi-finals, everything was looking sweet for Richie Murphy's side.
As well as that Challenge Cup semi, the province were third in the BKT United Rugby Championship, and favourites to cement their top four credentials at home to Leinster, who were resting the majority of their frontliners for the trip to Belfast.
That 29-21 defeat, which was followed by a heavy loss away to Munster, means the province are now looking over their shoulders in a bid to stay in the URC’s Champions Cup places with two games to go, home to the league’s top two Stormers and Glasgow Warriors.
At least the injury crisis isn't as bad as first feared. The double-whammy of that loss at home to Leinster came in the form of six injuries, with Angus Bell, Tom O’Toole, Scott Wilson, Bryn Ward, James Hume, and Jude Postlethwaite all picking up knocks, in addition to the already sidelined Nick Timoney.
Bell, Wilson and Hume remain out this week for the visit of Exeter Chiefs in the last four of the Challenge Cup, but the province have at least been able to name a squad not far off their first choice, with O’Toole and Postlethwaite starting and Ward among the replacements, as they go in search of a first European final since 2012.
While Connacht have been Challenge Cup regulars, the rest of the Irish provinces have barely been on nodding terms with this competition across the last 20-plus years.
Leinster are the only Irish side to win it, doing so in 2013 (above), while this is first year that any of Leinster, Munster or Ulster have been involved in the competition from the pool stages – with their fleeting appearances over the years via the Champions Cup trap-door.
It wasn’t in the plans for Ulster to be playing Challenge Cup rugby, but after a dismal 2024/25 season where they finished third from bottom in the URC, it was the reality of where the province had fallen.
They had only previously played Challenge Cup rugby twice; parachuting in from the Champions Cup pools in 2021 and 2024, reaching a semi-final and quarter-final respectively, but after breezing their way through the pool stages and landing a home semi-final, they now have the opportunity to go the distance, which would be a significant milestone for Ulster Rugby.
As this year’s Champions Cup can attest to, a Challenge Cup title can be a stepping stone to something better. Bath and Toulon, semi-finalists in the top-tier tournament this year, have lifted the Challenge Cup in recent years.
Even reaching the decider would offer Murphy and his squad a valuable experience of playing a major final.
It’s six years since they last reached a final, and that 2020 Pro14 decider against Leinster was played behind closed doors at Aviva Stadium during the early months of Covid-19. A destination final in Bilbao, and all the pressure that comes with it, would be a brand-new experience for a good chunk of this Ulster squad.
"First European semi-final in 20 years at home, it's a massive occasion in itself," Murphy (above) said this week.
"Our players are really hungry to try and win something. It's really important we prepare properly, have the excitement of the good cup run we have and see this out.
"When we get back to URC next week the page will change again."
Like Ulster, opponents Exeter have enjoyed an impressive rebound this season.
Rob Baxter’s side, Champions Cup winners in 2020, appeared to be on a downward spiral this time last year as they finished ninth in the Premiership, and that season also included a hammering away to Ulster in the Champions Cup pool stage.
Their future is now looking bright, with a Premiership semi-final spot still on the cards; heading into the final four games, they are fourth in the table, one point ahead of Bristol.
They needed a late penalty to get the better of Benetton in their quarter-final in Italy, but they beat Munster pulling up in the Round of 16, with Immanuel Feyi-Waboso starring in the 31-21 win.
If the statistics are to be believed, this could be a fast and expansive game, particularly with decent weather conditions and an artificial pitch put into the mix.
Four of the tournament’s top five for metres gained come from either of these two sides, with Ulster’s Zac Ward leading the competition for linebreaks and defenders beaten, with Feyi-Waboso (below) of Exeter not far behind.
Both sides come into this week off the back of consecutive defeats since their quarter-finals wins, both they are also much-changed from their league defeats a week ago.
While Ben Hammersley is the only Exeter back to come in following last week’s defeat to Gloucester, Baxter has changed seven of his eight forwards, among them Wallabies Scott Sio and Tom Hooper, as well as Wales internationals Dafydd Jenkins and flanker Christ Tshiunza.
The Premiership side will have to make do without injured club captain Jack Yeandle, as well as their suspended back row Ethan Roots.
As expected, Murphy has been even more drastic with his changes, with 14 in total, and Mike Lowry the only starter from last week who retains his place.
"They're in a position where this week is a fresh week and it could be a run of three, five or eight games," Murphy added.
"We know exactly where we are from in an injury point of view and we're looking a bit more positive in that regard."
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