I don't think rugby in the valleys has ever been at such a low point.
They've lost 14 Six Nations games in a row. They've only won two of their last 26 internationals. Their regional sides are coming under huge pressure, given the decision of the WRU to reduce them from four to three.
It's a horrible time for the proud Welsh supporters, so it'll be interesting to see how many Welsh fans are in Dublin tonight.
We've had a shock in every round – certainly Italy beating Scotland, then Scotland hammering England –but this would be the greatest shock of all if Ireland were to lose this one.
To be fair to Andy Farrell, any suggestion of complacency after the brilliant performance at Twickenham has been shaken by the fact that he makes five further changes to the starting side and two on the bench.
That means, in effect, that if he uses all the bench – if the likes of Tom Stewart, Nathan Doak (who could make his international debut), and Tom Farrell come in – then he will have used 33 players in four Six Nations games, which is incredible, really.
I think the fact that we were beaten so comprehensively by France in the opening game has forced Farrell's hand. We were critical in the past, in the year leading up to the World Cup, that he didn't look to build strength in depth, so he has certainly done that here.
There is also the possibility of Scotland beating France, and the whole championship would be wide open.
Wales have a big pack, and the scrum has been an issue for Ireland going back to the November series. Wales have a huge front row. Rhys Carre and Tomas Francis average about 21st 7lbs between them alone.
Aaron Wainwright has been one of the players of the championship in the back row.
Their problem is strength in depth; they don't have the bench impact that Ireland will have.
I'd also question their conditioning and confidence; they're the two big issues.
They were in a position to beat Scotland last time out. The only time Scotland went into the lead was in the 75th minute, through an incredible try, while the Wales team were talking to one of their coaches on the field. You've got to concentrate for the full 80 minutes.
There is a lack of experience as well. Garry Ringrose has more caps than five of the seven Wales backs. He has 72 and they have a combined 69, with Louis Rees-Zammit boasting 38 of those. That shows you just how inexperienced the back line is at the moment.
I was very impressed by a few elements of the Wales display last time out, and there is still a pride and passion in pulling on the jersey, but pride alone isn't going to win you a game.
Their form away from home has been really poor, and I would be shocked if Ireland don't win the game.
Donal Lenihan was speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland
Watch Ireland v Wales in the Six Nations on Friday from 7pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on the RTÉ News App and on rte.ie/sport. Listen to commentary on an extended Inside Sport on RTÉ Radio 1 .
