Ireland face Wales at the Aviva Stadium this weekend, looking to build on their historic win over England last time out.
Wales are the tournament weak link. The public perception is that this is the time to rotate Ireland's squad and develop more players. Home advantage adds to that narrative and it’s certainly easier to change a player or two when playing at home, in familiar circumstances.
However, Wales showed last week against Scotland that they’re going to beat someone at some stage and nobody wants to be on the receiving end of that shock result.
I don’t expect Andy Farrell to make sweeping changes. It hasn’t been his form throughout his tenure with Ireland and I don’t expect him to start now. Some changes had been enforced through injury. A few others were made by Farrell to shake up the squad after what was seen as an unacceptable loss to France.
It’s different now. They’re riding the crest of a positive wave and there are some aspects of that performance that Farrell will need to double down on.
After the out-half debate, Jack Crowley stuck his name firmly on the number 10 shirt in the victory at Twickenham. Changing the starting position now would seem counterproductive, and Farrell should double down on what worked in London.
What might change is Crowley’s half-back partner. The coaches have been vocal about spreading game time to build a stronger squad with more experienced depth. Craig Casey was given a chance against Italy, but Jamison Gibson-Park was favoured after making an impact from the bench. Form would suggest that Gibson-Park will start. However, starting Casey with his provincial half-back partner would give him a chance to build on a performance that would have frustrated him against Italy.
Stuart McCloskey has been the heartbeat of Ireland’s positivity. He deserves to keep his spot. The question mark remains around Farrell’s plans with Bundee Aki. If he doesn’t include Aki for the Wales game, then I don’t see him including him throughout this campaign, and Farrell is a fan of Aki.
If he wants to use Aki against Scotland then I think he will give him some involvement against Wales. Considering the injury to James Lowe, a place in the 23 has opened up, which could pave the way for Farrell to start Tommy O’Brien on the wing, while Aki could take up that outside back position on the bench.
Robert Baloucoune, Jamie Osborne and O’Brien should keep their places. They have six, 13 and eight caps respectively. These are players that Farrell will want to give even more time in the jersey so I don’t see him giving away a home cap against Wales. Baloucoune has been the pick of the bunch. Considering his previous troubles with injury, a run of games on the wing for Ireland could see him hit new heights and become a consistent dangerman for Farrell.
Loosehead has been an area of concern for Farrell throughout this campaign. Jeremy Loughman has stepped up admirably, while experimentation continues with Tom O’ Toole working his way across from the tighthead position. Developing both players further is possibly the only solution for Farrell.
Given the quality of Ireland’s hookers, it’s a position that Farrell may opt to select in reverse order. Considering Tom Stewart was sent back to play with Ulster, you’d think that Farrell will stick with Rónan Kelleher and Dan Sheehan. Given Stewart’s previous form with his club, it would be great to see him back in the mix with Ireland.
Ireland’s back five in the pack is where there is likely to be another one or two changes. It’s unclear whether Farrell had dropped Tadhg Beirne or rested him in the Italy game. There may have been tactical rotation to save some fresher minutes for their trip to Twickenham. If that’s the case, then Farrell might opt to do the same with different players for the Wales game.
Joe McCarthy was back to his best against England and Farrell might want to reward that, Cormac Izuchukwu might have come back into the back row if it weren’t for his unfortunate injury after returning to Ulster for the round of URC action.
Jack Conan missed out on his involvement in Twickenham and might therefore take a bigger role in the Wales game to make up for lost time. Nick Timoney deserves another shot at an Ireland start after his impact on the French game in Paris, although Josh van der Flier kept his best form for England.
You can rationalise as many different changes as you want. Farrell will have his own reasons for changes to his winning team.
Some guys will need more minutes because they have missed some of the Six Nations action, some players need to continue their development, while others need further reward for improving their performances. However Farrell dices up those decisions and opportunities is only known internally.
Hosting Wales is an opportunity for Ireland to experiment with a handful of changes. However, you don’t want to create doubt over the result of the most winnable game in the tournament.
Ireland were facing hard questions after a defeat in Paris and a stuttering performance against Italy in Dublin. This group now needs to build on a really positive win in Twickenham and consistency in selection is needed to continue to adapt the attacking game plan.
Expect a handful of changes, but nothing too drastic, as Farrell will double down on instilling more belief in this group.
