As Munster look to book their place in the knockout stages of the Investec Champions Cup, in a sense they are already there.
The province head into their final Pool 2 game against Castres Olympique with everything on the line, and every outcome possible.
Depending on this evening's clash with their old rivals, and the later meeting of Gloucester and Toulon, Munster could still secure home advantage for the Round of 16 in April, but on the other end of the spectrum they could finish bottom of the pool, and even miss the trap-door consolation of the Challenge Cup.
The permutations are lengthy and complex, and even Bath’s win against Edinburgh on Friday night has only marginally simplified things, leaving the door ajar for Munster to sneak into the top two of the pool, providing Gloucester edge past Toulon later on Saturday.
The only certainty is that defeat will see them knocked out. Even if they win, their fate ultimately won't be decided until later on Saturday night.
And with that in mind, the Munster head coach (below) isn’t paying much heed to the permutations.
"I think there's a real danger in chasing points. They've got to be earned," he said, when asked if his side will be well briefed on the possible outcomes of Pool 2.
"So, we'll be approaching the match where it's win the game first and we'll put a good plan in place and there's been good buy-in from the players.
"And if we execute that, then we give ourselves a really good chance. And if we execute it particularly well, then it opens up the opportunity maybe for us to chase a bonus-point.
"But that's secondary to what we know we need to do and it's winning the game first.
"If we don't win, we have no chance. So that's the first thing."
Had it not been for a late, controversial penalty in last week’s 27-25 defeat to Toulon, the province would be in prime position to secure a home Round of 16 game in the knockouts, something they haven’t had since the 2020/21 season.
On the flip side, their last-ditch defensive efforts to save a losing bonus-point at Stade Felix Mayol last week may prove to be crucial when the pool stage is complete later tonight.
"It gives you something that against some pretty elite teams away from home, you can compete with them. It gives you an indication of where you think you can get to.
"So, that's our challenge, to keep rising and getting better and learning from the experiences so that we know a few games and put ourselves right in the mix.
"We've talked at length this week around what's at stake; players, the coaching group, everyone in the building has been to this dance before.
"We put ourselves under some pressure to get a performance and what excites us, what gives us confidence, is that there has been a bit of a 'Munster’ trait to be able to rise to these occasions and deliver a result," the Munster coach added.
While they were deeply frustrated at the late penalty decision against Tom Farrell which ultimately won the game for Toulon last week, the province can only blame themselves for their earlier ill-discipline.
The French side scored 14 of their points while captain Tadhg Beirne was in the sin-bin either side of half time, while centre Alex Nankivell also picked up a yellow card which put his team under needless pressure.
"That’s probably the one area that let us down, or inhibited our ability to win that game, our discipline," McMillan said of their yellow cards.
"There’s a fine edge between being competitive, particularly around the tackle-area, the breakdown, and vying to win the ball back, and then getting that slightly wrong.
"I’m sometimes loathe to call it ‘discipline’. I think it’s inaccuracies and decision making. So those are the things we try and work on as skills, just like any other part of the game.
"We didn’t quite get that right on the weekend and in big games - all games really - if you’re operating with less than 15 people on the park it makes life hard on yourself.
"We’re not a good enough team at the moment to be operating with 14 for 20 minutes of the game."
While Munster have won 13 of their previous 19 games against Castres, and all eight of their Thomond Park clashes, the French side can still qualify with a win, and have named a strong squad for the trip to Limerick, with former All Black Jack Goodhue (above) among seven of this week’s starting team who featured in their 16-14 win in this fixture last season.
"I think a lot of people throughout world rugby had one opinion about the French, to expect the unexpected.
"They could have sent anything from the B team to their strongest team, and I think we've probably seen something closer to the latter.
"That's what the Champions Cup deserves. It deserves to see the best players playing against the best players in matches that have a lot riding on it. So, we're happy that they're sending that side of it over.
"It just sharpens our sword, I guess, around making sure that we are at our best because we need to be," the New Zealander added.
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