With Ireland opening their 2026 Guinness Six Nations campaign away to France in just under four weeks' time, there's an appropriate theme to these next two weekends of Investec Champions Cup and Challenge Cup rugby.
Having played both of their English Premiership opponents back-to-back in December, Leinster and Munster both face consecutive games against French opposition in this second half of their Champions Cup pool stages.
It’s similar for Connacht – away to Montpellier and home to Montauban – in their two remaining Challenge Cup pool games, and while Ulster have South African opposition in the Cheetahs this weekend, they will welcome Stade Francais to Belfast next week.
The provinces may have swerved Toulouse and Bordeaux-Begles, but they will have come up against half of the French Top14 by the end of next week, enough to give Andy Farrell a temperature check on how his players are tracking for Paris on 5 February.
Frustratingly with the modern iteration of the Champions Cup, there’s a lack of a make-or-break feel to this weekend, even with the end of the pool in sight.
At the very least, Munster’s Pool 2 is the most delicately poised. With a couple of games played, and a couple more to go, everything is up for grabs.
The opening two weekends were shared equally among the six teams with a win and a defeat each, with Bath leading the way on six points, and everyone else tightly bunched on five.
Two wins from two in these final games would likely be enough for Munster to secure a home tie in the Round of 16, something they have failed to achieve in each of the last three seasons.
The province were dealt a difficult hand with the layout of their fixtures, with their two toughest games against Bath and Toulon coming away from home, and they’ve been yet to fully recover from that opening round humiliation at The Rec where they gave up three tries in 18 minutes enroute to a 40-14 hammering.
Munster will be hopeful Bath do a similar job to Castres this Saturday, which might see the French side softened up for their trip to Thomond Park next week in what could be a must-win game for qualification to the knockouts.
Bath beating Castres would be handy, but Clayton McMillan’s side must first concentrate on their own shop, as they head to the south of France to take on three-time winners Toulon on Sunday.
Stade Felix Mayol holds nice memories for quite a few of these Munster players.
Two years ago, the province were injury-ravaged and in desperate form when they went away to Toulon and pulled off a remarkable 29-18 win (below), although it was a game they failed to capitalise on a week later against Northampton Saints, costing them a home tie in the round of 16.
Munster’s recent record in France is equal parts impressive and deeply frustrating.
The impressive element is four wins from their last seven Champions Cup games in France, with Clermont Auvergne, Castres, Toulon and La Rochelle all put to the sword in the last five seasons.
The frustrating element is that while they have won the same number of games in France as Leinster have since 2020, they haven’t been beyond the quarter-final of the competition in that time, largely down to a home record that has seen them win just eight of their last 13 home games across the same period.
That fact matches the thoughts of McMillan when he joined the province in the summer, with the New Zealander citing how Munster, in recent seasons, have had a habit of playing to peaks and troughs week on week, out-performing expectations when their backs are against the wall, only to let that momentum slip away when there’s expectation on them to deliver.
The New Zealander's stated aim when he arrived was to work on raising Munster’s floor rather than their ceiling, and while there has been some small evidence of that their performance floor has lifted, their October win away to Leinster is the only time we’ve seen them come anywhere close to the ceiling.
The evidence is that they are more reliant than ever on their frontline internationals Tadhg Beirne, Jack Crowley and Craig Casey, without whom they looked rudderless away to Ulster a week ago.
Fortunately, that trio should be back on deck this week as McMillan vowed to cut down on the squad rotation, and all three will need to be at their very best against a Toulon side, who themselves have a habit of playing to both sides of the extreme.
"They've all had a fair crack, anyone who has been fit..."@bernardjackman and @steeno10 expect Munster's Clayton McMillan to be ruthless with his selections in the coming weeks. 🔴
— RTÉ Sport (@RTEsport) January 7, 2026
📺🎧RTÉ Rugby pod: https://t.co/bvMkYZL3Hg pic.twitter.com/v6cNbFYsiX
Pierre Mignoni’s side were easily beaten by Edinburgh in their pool opener, before following it up with a hugely impressive bonus-point win against Bath, while they were thumped 66-0 by La Rochelle last weekend, although their Espoir-heavy line-up against Ronan O’Gara’s side indicates they were saving themselves for this visit of Munster.
For a better representation of Toulon, see their gunslinging 45-34 win against Bath last month.
Up front they have Les Bleus regulars Jean-Baptiste Gros and Charles Ollivon, as well as experienced English signings like Kyle Sinckler, Zach Mercer and Lewis Ludlam, as well as South Africa-born England international Dave Ribbans.
Baptiste Serin and Ben White provide equal threats, regardless of who plays out-half, while there’s explosive pace and power in the backline in the likes of Gabin Villiere and Nacho Brex, plus the exciting and unknown quantity of 21-year-old full-back Mathis Ferte, who has six tries so far this season in the Top14.
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