One of the big plus points for Ireland in this Quilter Nations Series has been the manner in which Ryan Baird has nailed down the starting blindside flanker spot.
Considering how highly he was rated in the early stages of his career, it's taken the versatile forward a while to nail down his place in the starting Irish team, although he looks a more rounded player because of that wait.
This evening, Baird will win his 33rd Ireland cap, which will be his sixth start in a row. In his previous 27 Test appearances, he started just seven times.
That long wait to nail down a starting jersey is testament to the experience and depth that was ahead of him in the second and back row, but with Peter O’Mahony now retired, he has slotted into the number 6 jersey and has taken on another role left behind by the former captain, as Ireland’s defensive lineout weapon.
Against the All Blacks in Chicago, Baird stole two New Zealand throws, and he was even more influential against the Wallabies last weekend, making three steals in the air, one of which came inside Ireland’s own 22.
He came very close to having four on the night, getting his hands on one of Matt Faesslar’s throws which Australia just about recovered.
His lineout defence, particularly deep in Irish territory, is a brilliant weapon to have, but on the flip side of that coin, it’s not an area of the game Andy Farrell will want to rely on so much to get them out of trouble.
Australia were woeful at lineout time last week, winning just 13 of their 19 throws for a 68% return.
Of the six throws they lost, four were inside the Irish 22 in prime attacking position, while another was just outside the 22.
As impressive as the hosts were last Saturday, a better team - specifically South Africa - won't be so profligate.
The first port of call to stopping teams scoring in the 22 is by stopping them getting into the 22, and the most valuable currency towards the price of admission is penalties.
On paper, Ireland’s discipline has been quite reasonable compared to 2024 when they averaged a yellow card per game in the calendar year, which had been a remarkable jump on their squeaky clean record of one yellow card for every nine games in the two and a half years leading up to the World Cup.
In this November window, their penalty count has been around level par; 11 conceded against the All Blacks, eight versus Japan and nine in last week’s meeting with Australia.
That penalty count against Australia is deceptive, however, with two of the Wallabies’ tries coming when they were also playing with penalty advantage which they ultimately didn't need to use.
Ireland still concede their penalties in clusters.
Four of last week’s nine penalties given up came in a seven-minute spell just before the change of ends, and that number also doesn't reflect the two infringements that weren’t called back due to Fraser McReight’s try on the stroke of half-time.
Similarly, against Japan, there were three penalties and a yellow card in a six-minute spell just before half time, allowing the visitors reduce Ireland’s 17-0 lead to 17-10.
Farrell and his players previous spoke of avoiding "desperation" in defence during 2024 Six Nations, when their penalty and card count was running wild, allowing teams chip away on the scoreboard with three-pointers, and the head coach agrees that the underlying numbers around when and where Ireland are conceding penalties are still being addressed.
"Not good enough at times," Farrell said this week, when asked about the flurry of penalties they have given up in each of those games just before half time.
"The flow of certain aspects, and recognition of where we're at within the game; 19-7 [ahead against Australia], two minutes before half-time isn't an ideal situation to give two penalties away on the trot and then concede a try on the back of that.
"It's recognition of all that and the penalty counts, when you look at the end of the game [at the penalty count], you'd say they had been average enough or just OK.
"But it's the continuity of ill-discipline at certain times that needs to be addressed and it's something we've talked about."
Last Saturday, the Wallabies had seven entries to the Ireland 22, and all but one of those came from a penalty or penalty advantage with Australia only working their way into the Irish 22 organically once.
Of that seven, three of those visits were over as soon as they began, with Baird stealing one and two overthrown lineouts were intercepted by Caelan Doris.
Of the four other entries, Ireland could only shut down the Wallabies defensively once, although a penalty against Tadhg Beirne would allow them back in seconds later.
That leaves the three remaining 22 entries, and the only stages of the game where the visitors managed multiple phases of attack in a dangerous area, and each time Ireland would concede either a penalty or a penalty advantage, leading to a try.
When Ireland and South Africa last met, Handre Pollard kicked all 24 of the Springboks’ points as Ireland just about scraped by, which was part of a remarkable three-game run that year in which Ireland conceded just two tries and yet, somehow, 66 points, with 54 of those points coming from penalty kicks.
Pollard doesn't feature for South Africa this week, with Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu starting in the 10 shirt for the Springboks, and while he doesn't boast Pollard's reliability off the tee, he's considerably more dangerous in open play.
If Ireland continue to cough up penalties, or even penalty advantage in their own 22, it could be a long day.
Listen to the RTÉ Rugby podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Watch Ireland v South Africa in the Quilter Nations Series from 4.30pm on RTÉ2 and the RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on the RTÉ News App and on rte.ie/sport. Listen to live commentary on RTÉ Radio 1
