In Brendan Fanning's new book, Touching Distance, Japan head coach Eddie Jones provides an interesting prediction.
The Australian was giving his thoughts on the Joe Schmidt era of Irish rugby – which coincided with some of Jones’ seven years coaching England (2015-22).
"Whatever you’re good at is what gets you the job, and you invariably get sacked for that same thing," Jones told Fanning, paraphrasing former Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti.
"Joe brought detail, he brought precision, he brought a hard-work ethic, with players working above and beyond what they would normally do. And like everything, it runs its race.
"Now, Andy [Farrell] comes in and he’s a bit freer, and he’ll end up getting sacked for that mate. I’m telling you."
Given the credit he has in the bank after five years in the job, things would have to fall off a pretty steep cliff for Farrell to be under job pressure from the IRFU any time soon, but those quotes from Jones have come into focus this week, as Ireland prepare to host Japan at Aviva Stadium this afternoon (12.40pm, live on RTE2 and RTÉ Player).
Jones rowed back, or at least gave context to those remarks, this week, when he predicted Farrell would get Ireland through a current "sticky period" and be contenders for the World Cup in two years' time.
There was a time when Jones (above) was the last coach on earth you’d want to encounter after a disappointing defeat and a long-haul flight, but with the 65-year-old's second spell in charge of Japan not running as smoothly as his first, this afternoon’s meeting of the sides is an opportunity for Ireland to get the dirty diesel out of their system ahead of games with the Wallabies and Springboks.
Jones controversially quit his job at Australia to return to Japan after the 2023 Rugby World Cup but, in 19 games since, the Brave Blossoms have picked up just eight wins, beating only Wales of Tier 1 nations.
They arrive in Dublin on the back of a three-game losing run, which started in the final of the Pacific Nations Cup, where they were beaten by Fiji for the second year in a row in the decider.
Japan gave Australia a good rattle two weeks ago in Tokyo before losing 19-15, but they were pummelled 61-7 by South Africa last weekend at Wembley.
It seems like a long time ago that they were pulling off a famous World Cup shock against Ireland in 2019, let alone beating the Springboks in Brighton in 2015 – the game that provided the springboard for Jones to become England head coach later that year.
It has been four years since the last Ireland-Japan meeting. That game was also a springboard for Farrell’s Ireland, as they clicked into life on Johnny Sexton’s 100th appearance, playing the high-tempo attacking game that would define them for the next three years.
But for just over a year now, Ireland have been struggling to hit those heights. A Six Nations hammering at the hands of France in March ended their hopes of three titles in a row, and that match was the meat in the sandwich of two defeats to New Zealand in which Farrell’s side have struggled to play with the attacking potency of a few years ago.
The huge Irish playing and coaching contingent on the British and Irish Lions tour in the summer may well pay off down the line, but at the moment it’s looking like Ireland are paying the price for their heavy involvement.
‘Undercooked’ was the word of the week heading into last week’s defeat in Chicago, and so it proved. Leading 13-7 with just under 20 minutes to play, Ireland’s defence had the structural integrity of a deep dish pizza as they gave up three quick tries, to eventually lose 26-13.
The lineout inconsistencies continued as they lost five of their 16 throws, four of those coming in the first half when they enjoyed the best of the opportunities. They made just two linebreaks compared to New Zealand’s six, while they gave up 15 turnovers and missed 24 tackles.
Almost every element of their game last week was second-best, but it was the manner of that final quarter that appears to have angered Farrell (below) the most.
The Ireland head coach tends to go into protective mode after a defeat, aiming to take some heat off the players and shine a light on the positives, but there was none of that in the wake of last week's loss. In recent memory, the first Test defeat to the Springboks in 2024 was the only other time he has been so publicly cutting of his Irish team after a defeat.
He has freshened things up in his starting side for this afternoon’s game. With huge Tests against Australia and South Africa to come, Jamison Gibson-Park, James Lowe, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong and Josh van der Flier have all been rested entirely, with Jack Conan on the bench, and Stuart McCloskey and Garry Ringrose ruled out due to injury.
The big selection sees Munster’s Tom Farrell named to start in the 13 shirt, making his Test debut at the age of 32.
The centre’s career looked to be heading another way when he was released by Connacht at the end of 2023/24, but he has been a revelation since joining Munster just over a year ago, and will now become the oldest back to debut for Ireland since James Downey in 2013.
He partners Robbie Henshaw in the centre, while scrum-half Craig Casey and left wing Jacob Stockdale are also brought into the backline.
Up front, Rónan Kelleher and Thomas Clarkson join Andrew Porter in a Lions front row, with Nick Timoney given a rare opportunity at openside flanker, and Caelan Doris completing his injury return to captain the side at number 8.
Japan coach Jones has made three changes to his XV following last weekend’s heavy loss to the Springboks, with scrum-half Naoto Saito, lock Epineri Uluiviti and number eight Faulua Makisi coming into the team, while Shinobu Fujiwara, Jack Cornelsen and Michael Leitch drop to the bench.
Leitch (37) is the only player in this week's matchday squad who featured in Japan’s 2019 World Cup win against Ireland.
A similar shock doesn’t appear to be on the cards this time.
Verdict: Ireland by 30+
Ireland: Jamie Osborne; Tommy O'Brien, Tom Farrell, Robbie Henshaw, Jacob Stockdale; Jack Crowley, Craig Casey; Andrew Porter, Rónan Kelleher, Thomas Clarkson; James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne; Ryan Baird, Nick Timoney, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Gus McCarthy, Paddy McCarthy, Finlay Bealham, Cian Prendergast, Jack Conan, Caolin Blade, Sam Prendergast, Jimmy O'Brien.
Japan: Yoshitaka Yazaki; Kippei Ishida, Dylan Riley, Charlie Lawrence, Tomoki Osada; Seungsin Lee, Naoto Saito; Kenta Kobayashi, Kenji Sato, Shuhei Takeuchi; Epineri Uluiviti, Warner Dearns; Ben Gunter, Kanji Shimokawa, Faulua Makisi.
Replacements: Shodai Hirao, Ryosuke Iwaihara, Keijiro Tamefusa, Jack Cornelsen, Michael Leitch, Shinobu Fujiwara, Shinya Komura, Yuya Hirose.
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