Jeopardy has suddenly crept into Ireland's autumn schedule after Saturday's disappointing defeat to New Zealand in Chicago.
The Rugby World Cup 2027 draw takes place after the November international window and although Ireland, currently in third, are well placed to secure a top-six berth, which would put them in the top band for the tournament, they now have little margin for error in their remaining games against Japan, Australia and South Africa.
The rankings mechanism awards points for wins based on venue, strength of opposition and margin of victory.
Andy Farrell’s side would have leapfrogged New Zealand had they won in Chicago, while world number one South Africa didn’t get any rating increase despite a big victory over the Brave Blossoms, who are ranked 13th.
Australia, who lost to England and play Italy next weekend, would have moved into the top six with a victory at Twickenham but remain in seventh.
Farrell pointed out after the game how important accruing the ranking points are in this window with even a drop of one or two places affecting the pathway through the knockout stages of the 2027 tournament in Australia, which has expanded to 24 teams.
"This autumn is pretty important. We have to [improve], these next couple of games are absolutely huge for us, points for the world rankings are concerned etc," said Farrell ahead of Saturday’s match with Japan (12.40pm).
It’s not just a solitary defeat to the All Blacks, who have now won three in a row, it was more so the manner of the loss in which Ireland lacked a cutting edge that is a cause for concern.
The scrum and lineouts were an issue throughout, they registered two linebreaks, scored one try and racked up just 13 points against an opposition that made multiple errors in the opening 60 minutes.
Despite a strong start, Ireland faded badly in the fourth quarter and there only looked one winner after New Zealand took the lead for the first time with 18 minutes to play.
"It was a very poor Test match and it looked like two teams who were playing their first or second match of the season," former Ireland and Leinster hooker Bernard Jackman told RTÉ Sport.
"I know Ireland haven’t had much time together, but we actually started the game pretty OK.
"We looked like a team that had good cohesion and good control.
"The All Blacks were average, and we just didn’t execute and get enough points.
"We allowed them back into the game and they grew in confidence, and they had way more firepower than us when the game broke up, a lot more pace and power.
"We looked one-paced, one-dimensional, and they were the better side in the end.
"They were pulling away, we were out on our feet. Maybe that’s where the lack of game time came in rather than at the start.
"I spoke to Andy Farrell on Friday.
"He’s been around teams for a long time, and he thought Ireland were ready, genuinely did, thought the preparation was good, being over in Chicago and were ready to do something special.
"They’ll be very disappointed they didn’t fire."
Watch Ireland v Japan in the Quilter Nations Series on Saturday from 12pm on RTÉ2 and the RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on the RTÉ News App and on rte.ie/sport. Listen to live commentary on RTÉ Radio 1 Extra
