It's not far off 10 years to the day since the 'Miracle of Brighton’. What are the chances we get another game for the ages this afternoon?
Japan’s win against South Africa at the Brighton and Hove Albion Stadium in 2015 remains one of the greatest shocks in the history of the game, Karne Hesketh’s try with the final play of the game sealing a 34-32 victory for the Brave Blossoms, and cementing his place as a pub quiz question for decades to come.
With England hosting Australia in Brighton last night, Ireland didn't get a chance to go through their traditional captain’s run at the Premier League ground yesterday, but Scott Bemand and his players did take a chance to visit the stadium on Friday evening for a stroll around and a recce ahead of their Pool C decider.
Amee Leigh-Costigan may have stood in that left corner where Hesketh rode the challenge of JP Pieterson to score that final try, and visualised herself doing similar to Portia Woodman-Wickliffe. Brittany Hogan may have been reminded of Michael Leitch logging carry after carry. I’ll end this analogy before comparing Scott Bemand to Eddie Jones.
Ireland may have beaten New Zealand when the sides last met, but the 35/1 odds on offer for them to do it at a World Cup give a sense of the task that lies ahead.
Ultimately, with a quarter-final already secured, a win this weekend is a bonus rather than the necessity. Given the chance of topping Pool C, it’s not a ‘free shot’, but it’s as close to a free shot as Ireland could get in a World Cup.
Coaches will always publicly talk about the importance of the performance rather than the result, and while they should usually be taken with a pinch of salt, today’s meeting with the All Blacks very much fits that bill.
Going into a quarter-final against France or South Africa in Exeter next week would obviously be made sweeter if they could bounce across to Devon on the back of a win, but if Ireland lose and give the All Blacks a game to remember, it’s unlikely to dent their confidence heading into the knockouts.
With that in mind, Bemand has chosen to go strong with his team selection rather than put his best players on ice and risk a heavy defeat and the momentum dent that would come with it.
It’s not a full-strength Ireland team though. There’s a fine line between bravery and foolishness, and taking a gamble on players carrying injuries would have blown through that line.
Chief among those is Aoife Wafer (above). Before last year's meeting in Vancouver, the "red scrumcap" had been flagged as Ireland’s danger woman by the New Zealand camp. If they
didn’t know her name before, they certainly did by the end. The back row was the best player on the pitch that night, scoring two tries, making 20 carries for 47 metres and logging nine tackles.
Wafer is yet to play at this World Cup as she battles back from a knee injury, and while her absence will be keenly felt, it’s the right move to allow her an extra week to build towards the quarter-final.
Ireland were already without Dorothy Wall and Erin King, both of whom were outstanding in 2024 and the 2025 Six Nations, and in total only eight of last year’s starting team against the Black Ferns do so again this weekend.
Fiona Tuite, Ireland’s main lineout caller and target in the opening wins against Japan and Spain, has been left out due to a minor knock, with responsibility for the lineout likely to fall onto co-captain Sam Monaghan, who does feature despite picking up a hip issue of her own last week.
Last year’s result in Vancouver clearly poked the bear, and New Zealand’s line-up contains just six survivors from their 2024 defeat, and it’s their smattering of Sevens stars which make them a daunting prospect this weekend.
Scrum-half Risi Pouri-Lane, centre Stacey Waaka, wing Portia Woodman-Wickliffe and flanker Jorja Miller (above) were all part of New Zealand’s Olympic gold medal-winning side in Paris last year, and didn't feature in the WXV.
Miller only made her Black Ferns debut in May of this year, but the 21-year-old has already established herself as one arguably the best young talent in the world, scoring four tries in two games at this World Cup.
In their opening wins against Japan and Spain, Ireland have defended quite narrow, and while their earlier opponents have only been able to occasionally drag them out to the edges of the pitch, New Zealand should be far better equipped to do so.
Their average ruck speed of 2.6 seconds is second only to Canada in the opening two pool games, although Ireland have slowed down opposition ball better than any other side in the tournament, with an average of 3.94 seconds at each ruck.
Expect Ireland to aggressively go after the breakdown, particularly off kick-chase and in the wider channels, where their Sevens players have experience in getting in over the ball quickly in exposed areas. Britany Hogan leads the team for defensive breakdown arrivals, while Edel McMahon’s (above) return at openside will also be key in that area.
One of the more concerning elements of last Sunday’s performance against Spain was how easily the Spanish side converted their opportunities, and New Zealand have been lethal when presented with chances in their opening games, scoring an average of 4.1 points per entry to the 22. Numbers like that would be music to the ears of Woodman-Wickliffe, now on 50 Test tries in just 30 caps.
One of the quirky facts about this game is that Ireland are the only side in World Rugby who have a winning record against New Zealand in the women's game, leading their head to head 2-1, while Ireland can also claim to be the last side to beat the Black Ferns in the tournament when they effectively knocked them out at the pool stage in 2014.
As the men’s game shows, New Zealanders don't take well to a defeat, and all sensible signs point towards a Black Ferns win today.
However this Irish side have shown in the past 12 months that they can be steely and belligerent against top level opposition, not only against today’s opponents, but versus England and France in the Six Nations.
Winning next week is more important than winning this week, but that doesn’t mean the performance can be written off.
If Ireland get that part right, it should stand to them later in the tournament.
Verdict: New Zealand
Ireland: Stacey Flood; Béibhinn Parsons, Aoife Dalton, Eve Higgins, Amee-Leigh Murphy Crowe; Dannah O'Brien, Aoibheann Reilly; Ellena Perry, Neve Jones, Linda Djougang; Ruth Campbell, Sam Monaghan (co-capt); Grace Moore, Edel McMahon (co-capt), Brittany Hogan.
Replacements: Clíodhna Moloney-MacDonald, Niamh O'Dowd, Sadhbh McGrath, Eimear Corr-Fallon, Claire Boles, Emily Lane, Nancy McGillivray, Anna McGann.
New Zealand: Renee Holmes; Braxton Sorensen-McGee, Stacey Waaka, Sylvia Brunt, Portia Woodman-Wickliffe; Ruahei Demant (co-capt), Risi Pouri-Lane; Chryss Viliko, Georgia Ponsonby, Tanya Kalounivale; Maia Roos, Alana Bremner; Layla Sae, Jorja Miller, Liana Mikaele-Tu’u.
Replacements: Vici-Rose Green, Kate Henwood, Amy Rule, Laura Bayfield, Kennedy Tukuafu (co-capt), Maia Joseph, Theresa Setefano, Ayesha Leti-I’iga.
