Australia's 38-22 win against the Springboks in Ellis Park must be one of the most unpredicted outcomes in quite some time.
Sport can be fascinating.
Two teams will go head-to-head and predictions are made based on the form guides and the evidence that went before.
You could be in both camps listening to the preparations and you might still come out on the wrong side of the prediction.
Yet, most people aren’t privy to the preparation behind the scenes and we still try to make sense of ties based on the physical attributes of players, and where we believe their mental state is at.
In reality, player and group mentality is where shock results happen.
The mental game can’t paper over cracks in the longer term, the tangibles such as physical attributes and tactical strategy of the team will guide the results across a longer period of time.
However, on any given day, the mental state of a team can lead to shocks, upsets and outlier results.
What’s even more difficult to understand is how games can swing so heavily when the momentum has already been established.
South Africa were the world number one team, at home in Ellis Park, a ground that Australia had failed to win at in 62 years.
The Springboks raced into an easy 22-0 lead within 18 minutes.
It was a long way back for Joe Schmidt’s side, but somehow, they slowly turned momentum and glided their way to a historic evening for Australian rugby.
It’s one thing to race out of the blocks and catch the favourites cold.
But to turn the heavy momentum with 38 unanswered points is truly astounding.
The back-to-back world champions scored with their first possession.
They beat Australia in the aerial and kicking battle for 20 minutes and they physically manhandled their opponents.
However, Australia stayed in the fight and continued to compete.
They stole South African lineouts, an area where the Springboks are usually superior, and they competed for the ball at the breakdown, mainly through Fraser McReight.
The shift happened quite slowly, from stemming the South African flow, to rebuilding their own game.
Yes, there were tactical and strategical moments, but you’d have to ask questions of what happened to the mindset on both sides.
South Africa threw the ball around far more than we’re used to.
Maybe they’re building something two years out from the next World Cup, and maybe we’ll look back at how they pulled it all together in time to compete for their third World Cup win on the trot.
Or maybe, they became complacent because they started so quickly.
It’s hard to tell.
Sometimes even the players competing can’t explain it, but the momentum shift happens and it can be difficult to stop.
If anyone had watched the Lions series, you’d see that this Australian group get stronger during games, not weaker.
Despite being at altitude, the Aussies grew more and more into the game as time went on, and the air was being sucked out of the home team.
South Africa played a style of rugby that their club teams can identify with, and maybe some of Tony Brown’s other attacking teams in the past can identify with, but not South Africa.
They regularly threw a deep pass to Manie Libbok, who threw another 10-metre deep pass to whichever centre was available.
They then tried to play off the second pair of hands. This is unlike the effective and efficient South Africa that we know.
I paused the game at one stage to see if I was seeing things correctly.
South African ball-players and carriers were receiving the ball 20 metres behind where the tackle line was formed from the ruck.
South Africa have some of the most dangerous wingers in world rugby.
I can understand why they would form a strategy to attack teams in the wider channels, particularly with the way defences are set up in a narrow and aggressive nature these days.
Nonetheless, it goes against their very effective identity of being confrontational at the tackle line.
Their centres usually create an awful lot of physical destruction in the middle of the field, before they unleash the rest of their attacking threats afterwards.
Andre Esterhuizen and Jesse Kriel (above) are frightening in the midfield channel, yet Esterhuizen was being used in a distribution role.
You’d normally see an Owen Farrell or Matt Giteau in a distribution role in midfield, but not the South African centres.
At 22-0, South Africa didn’t need to prove anything, and they normally don’t.
They punish teams continuously until they’ve broken their spirit. This didn’t feel the same.
And unfortunately for Rassie Erasmus and his coaches, it wasn’t all in their control.
Australia played a huge part in the momentum shift, it wasn’t solely a case of South Africa squandering a few moments and giving their opposition a reason to hope.
Although the South African penalty count aided the comeback.
The Wallabies scrapped, but they also believed in their product.
They continued to play rugby, exiting with run options from their own 22 against the best side in the world.
Their backline brought them back into the game, and it was their backline through Max Jorgensen and Tom Wright that put the final nail in the South African coffin.
The South African wide-wide attacking strategy came back to haunt them when Libbok threw an intercept pass into the arms of Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii.
With things getting more tense, Australia grew as South Africa lost all control.
It was a historic win for the visitors, topping off huge transition for Australia in a matter of months.
From being written off in a Lions series, being doubted with regards their suitability for inclusion in the Lions roster, and now beating the world champions in South Africa.
Australian rugby is in a much-improved place.
Their mindset gave them belief, and with belief they can now transform their whole identity.
Putting it up to the Lions was one thing, it was always difficult to gauge where both teams were. But now we can see what Australia were quietly developing.
They have a much tougher mindset, however, that will now be tested, particularly in their rematch with South Africa this weekend.
It doesn’t feel like a one-off victory. Not when you consider how they improved through the three Lions Tests.
Mindset will aid big upsets and one-off performances, but systems, structures and ability will bring longer term success.
Joe Schmidt is the right man to develop these systems and structures.
He’s got a track record in Irish rugby.
He’s now at the beginning of the same success with Australia.
The disappointing thing is that he’s set to step away from Australian Rugby at the end of this season’s Rugby Championship.
Les Kiss is due to replace Schmidt, but if you were in Rugby Australia now, you’d be trying to find ways to keep Schmidt involved at all costs.
A historic victory like that will belong to the players.
Still, Schmidt is the mastermind behind the win and there’s real belief growing in Australian rugby as a result.
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