Lions fever hasn't yet landed in Brisbane, even if the supporters are arriving in Queensland by the bucketload.
You don’t have to go far in Brisbane to see a Lions jersey or t-shirt or rucksack, and there were so many knocking around Dubai airport on Tuesday, it was as if they were handing them out at the door.
It will be interesting to see how much of the 52,500 Suncorp Stadium is red on Saturday, or rather, how much of it is gold.
As enthusiastic as the touring groups are, their hosts haven’t been bitten by the same bug.
All that would change if the Wallabies pull off a shock in Brisbane this Sunday, particularly with Tom Lynagh at out-half.
The son of Wallabies great Michael Lynagh, 22-year-old Tom looks set to be handed the keys to the Wallabies backline this week in the absence of Noah Lolesio, with Joe Scmidt throwing a curveball and giving him his first Wallabies start on just his fourth Test appearance.
Schmidt will confirm his squad on Thursday (4.30am Irish time), while Andy Farrell will follow at 6am (Irish time), with his side expected to have a green glow, even if it’s not as green as it had been expected to be a few days ago.
Garry Ringrose has been ruled out due to concussion, and Mack Hansen is likely to miss the first Test due to a foot injury, with both players having been expected to feature in the matchday 23 if fit.
Prior to his concussion, Ringrose had been narrowly leading a competitive race for the 13 jersey against Huw Jones. Jones’ performance in Saturday’s 48-0 win against the AUNZ Invitational was good enough that it could well have tipped the scales in his favour even if Ringrose was available, and that debate may be revisited later in the tour.
Ringrose’s absence may have a knock-on effect on Bundee Aki. The Irish centre pairing had started and looked sharp against the Brumbies a week ago in Canberra, although Farrell now looks likely to pair Jones with his Scotland team-mate Sione Tuipulotu for the opening Test in Brisbane.
The rest of the backline looks easy to predict. Jamison Gibson-Park and Finn Russell have been the standout half-back combination so far, and it looks as though Alex Mitchell and Marcus Smith will get the nod to support them from the bench.
Farrell’s decision to call his son Owen up to the squad appeared to be a death-sentence for Marcus and Fin Smith’s Test chances, and although Owen was excellent in his second half appearance in Adelaide on Saturday, it’s reported that Marcus Smith has done enough to keep his place in the matchday 23.
With Blair Kinghorn yet to recover from his knee injury, Hugo Keenan (above) is the easy choice at full-back, while James Lowe has looked like first choice on the left wing all tour.
On the right wing, Tommy Freeman has consistently impressed, and while he was facing competition from Hansen for the jersey, the latter’s foot injury should seal Freeman’s place in the 14 shirt.
The big call Farrell will have to make is in his back row, where he has big decisions to make on both flanks, where Tom Curry, Jac Morgan and Josh van der Flier can all make compelling cases for the starting openside flanker slot.
As the incumbent, Curry appears to be leading the race to start, and while either Morgan or Van der Flier wouldn’t be out of place in a starting team, the harsh reality is that both could miss out on the matchday 23 entirely, with speculation that Ben Earl’s performance last weekend has done enough to see him beat the pair, and Henry Pollock, to a place on the bench. That order may well be revisited across the series.
Jack Conan should get the nod at number 8, while blindside flanker should be a straight shootout between Tadhg Beirne (below) and Ollie Chessum.
Beirne had been expected to start alongside Maro Itoje in the second row prior to the tour, but the form of Joe McCarthy has ensured he’ll now most likely partner the tour captain at lock.
The trend so far on this tour has been for the Lions to go for a hybrid lock at openside flanker, and while Chessum has been excellent so far, Beirne’s ability at the breakdown could offer a lot to a Lions side that looked exposed at the ruck in their win against the Brumbies last week.
The silver lining for whoever misses out is that they will more than likely be involved off the bench, with Farrell expected to go for a traditional 5:3 split.
In the front row, Farrell will call on his two Irish hookers, with Dan Sheehan a shoo-in to start, and Rónan Kelleher also nailed on for a place in the squad, with Jamie George only joining the squad today following his late call up.
Ellis Genge and Andrew Porter will be the Test looseheads, with Pierre Schoeman’s place in the pecking order established by his 80-minute shift last Saturday. There is very little between Genge and Porter, although the pattern of previous selections would indicate that Genge is likely to get the starting jersey, with Porter coming on early in the second half. With the form both players are in right now, there is no wrong answer to the question of who starts.
Tadhg Furlong’s (above) return to form is likely to see him start at tighthead, maintaining his record of starting every Test for the Lions across 2017, 2021 and now 2025. Behind him, Will Stuart and Finlay Bealham will be vying for a spot among the replacements.
Bealham’s inclusion in the squad would mark an incredible story, given he missed out on the initial squad, coming in as a replacement for the injured Zander Fagerson before the tour.
Regardless, Farrell’s matchday squad is likely to see the Irish involvement in double figures, with potentially eight Ireland internationals in the starting team.
Had it not been for a couple of injuries, that number could have been even higher.
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