If you look at the last two knockout games, Leinster have scored 114 points and conceded none.
Northampton are not playing as well as last year. They were Premiership title winners last year and they're currently seventh.
They've a brilliant backline. I think three of them might make the Lions in Alex Mitchell at scrum-half, Fin Smith at fly-half – he'll be up against Sam Prendergast and that's going to be interesting – and wing Tommy Freeman, who scored a try for England in all five of the Six Nations games and is really a threat out wide.
It's up front where I think Leinster are so much stronger. From last year's game, Northampton no longer have Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam or Sam Matavesi, who have all left.
Leinster have been on fire and the rumour is that Jordie Barrett and Andrew Porter may well start the game from the bench.
When you look at the impact Barrett had in the last game out against Glasgow, when Leinster scored eight tries and he was a shoo-in for player of the match after about half an hour despite not getting any, and you can afford to leave riches like that on the bench if that happens, it shows the strength Leinster have in depth.
They are a stronger combination than last year, whereas Northampton aren't quite as strong, so I expect Leinster to win – not as comprehensively as in the previous games, but certainly by 10-15 points at least.
Leinster controlled the ticket sales for the semi-final last year and attracted over 80,000 to Croke Park.
EPCR took over the running this year and apparently sales have been poor. Prices are very high, so that's disappointing, and there could be a crowd at Aviva of less than 30,000.
Donal Lenihan was speaking on RTÉ Radio's Morning Ireland
Watch the Champions Cup semi-final, Leinster v Northampton Saints, on Saturday from 4.45pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1.
