Two expected wins and two expected defeats. Saturday in Edinburgh is set to define Ireland's Guinness Women’s Six Nations campaign.
Even with Ireland almost guaranteed to finish third in the table, there is no sense of this being a dead rubber. If anything, the table is an irrelevance for Ireland this week, who are looking to win three away games in the championship for the first time since 2017.
The big challenge facing them this week will be whether or not they can do it without Aoife Wafer.
Player of the match in last week’s 40-14 win against Wales, the number eight has been one of the standout individuals in the championship – not just this Irish team – but a knee injury keeps her out for the trip to Edinburgh.
With four tries in four games, Wafer is the joint-top scorer in this year’s Six Nations, while her 70 carries are 22 more than any other player, and she ranks in the top five for broken tackles, running metres and breakdown steals.
A force multiplier, it will be fascinating to see how Ireland cope without her, particularly with their other big back row prospect, Erin King, out injured long-term.
There is a silver lining, even if it’s relatively thin. Back row is a position that Ireland do have plenty of options in, and Scott Bemand has responded by moving Brittany Hogan back to her old home of number 8, while Dorothy Wall returns to the back row.
Wall has only featured as a lock for Ireland under Bemand, but having won around half of her 36 caps as a flanker, the 24-year-old is well versed at blindside.
While Bemand and his squad will naturally be keen to finish the campaign on a high note, their relatively safe position in third has given him scope to make some tweaks to his side, with half an eye towards the World Cup this summer.
Aoife Corey has been rewarded for her good form in both the Celtic Challenge and Energia All-Ireland League with a start this afternoon in Edinburgh.
Having not even made the initial 35-player squad at the start of the championship, Corey (below) is put into the 15 shirt, replacing Stacey Flood in the back-field, while 22-year-old Vicky Elmes-Kinlan gets her first start of the championship on the right wing.
There is also a debut on the bench, and one with a familiar surname. Jane Clohessy, daughter of former Munster and Ireland prop Peter, is set to win her first cap off the bench. The back-row forward had been named in the Ireland squad for last year’s WXV in Canada, but after missing that championship with injury, will now get her chance to match her father by earning an international cap.
A win for Ireland on Saturday would so see them hit their best points total on the table since 2017, where they won four games and finished second.
And two years on from scoring a meagre three tries and 25 points, the Irish attack has evolved to the point where this could be their highest scoring campaign ever.
With 114 points and 18 tries across these four games, Bemand’s side would beat their highest ever points haul, which they set in their 2015 title-winning season (139 points and 20 tries), if they hit 26 points this afternoon at The Hive.
Historically Ireland have dominated this fixture, winning 13 of their last 17 meetings, but a fascinating rivalry has emerged in recent years.
Scotland have been at the centre of two of the darkest days in Irish women’s rugby history – on the pitch at least. In 2021 they lit the flame when they beat Ireland in their World Cup qualification play-off in Parma, and they were 36-10 winners when these sides met in Edinburgh two years ago (below), handing Ireland a first Six Nations wooden spoon since 2004.
Between those wins, Ireland have had two dramatic victories over the Scots in Belfast. In 2022, Enya Breen’s late try and conversion saw Ireland snatch a 15-14 win with the final play of the game, while last year Ireland were 15-12 winners, a result which secured their World Cup and WXV 1 qualification.
It’s been a mixed campaign for Bryan Easson’s side, who finished second in WXV 2 behind Australia in the autumn.
After starting with a gritty win against Wales, they showed some positive flashes in a 38-15 defeat to France in Round 2 but then fell to a disappointing 25-17 defeat to Italy.
Last week, they had their doors blown off by England’s second-string team in the opening 40 minutes in Leicester, 42-0 down by half-time, before a spirited second half saw the game end 59-7.
Easson has made three changes to his side from that game, with prop Leah Bartlett, scrum-half Leia Brebner-Holden and captain Rachel Malcolm all coming back into the side.
An experienced first XV, Scotland have eight players with 50 or more Test caps each, but behind that they are relying on youth.
On their bench, Molly Poolman, Becky Boyd, Gemma Bell, Rhea Clarke, Evie Willis and Lucia Scott have a combined 16 caps between them.
If Ireland can get through the first hour with a lead, their greater depth should be enough to lead them to their best championship finish since 2017.
Verdict: Ireland by 15
Scotland: Chloe Rollie; Rhona Lloyd, Emma Orr, Lisa Thomson, Francesca McGhie; Helen Nelson, Leia Brebner-Holden; Leah Bartlett, Lana Skeldon, Ellian Clarke; Jade Konkel, Sarah Bonar; Rachel Malcolm, Rachel McLachlan, Evie Gallagher
Replacements: Elis Martin, Anne Young, Molly Poolman, Becky Boyd, Gemma Bell, Rhea Clarke, Evie Willis, Lucia Scott
Ireland: Aoife Corey; Vicky Elmes Kinlan, Aoife Dalton, Enya Breen, Amee-Leigh Costigan; Dannah O'Brien, Molly Scuffil-McCabe; Niamh O'Dowd, Neve Jones, Linda Djougang; Ruth Campbell, Fiona Tuite; Dorothy Wall, Edel McMahon (capt), Brittany Hogan.
Replacements: Cliodhna Moloney, Sadhbh McGrath, Christy Haney, Jane Clohessy, Claire Boles, Emily Lane, Eve Higgins, Stacey Flood
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