Having shown signs that they are closing the gap to the top two in the Guinness Women's Six Nations, these next two games will test whether or not Scott Bemand’s side are putting distance between themselves and the other three.
Last week’s first half against England was a glimpse at what the future may hold for this team.
Young, but no longer inexperienced, they stood up to the Red Roses juggernaut in a way that very few sides have done in recent seasons. That first half arm-wrestle makes the second half blowout all the more frustrating.
But rather than be happy with how they irritated England and deservedly took the lead with Amee-Leigh Costigan’s try, the message this week from the head coach was that they have picked apart that opening 40 minutes, and asked themselves why they weren't further ahead. Why were England 7-5 in front at the break, when Ireland could have been 15 or 17 to the good?
There’s been an attitude shift in the squad in this Six Nations, likely down to their win against New Zealand in the WXV in September.
Twelve months ago their stated goal was World Cup qualification, although it was spoken of as a hope rather than an expectation. This year, the talk has been far more bullish.
Three wins, and the top three finish that would come with it, is now what they are demanding of themselves. As such, a win against Wales this afternoon is the bar they absolutely have to clear.
Through three games, Ireland are playing this championship pretty much at level par. Against France and England they showed they can stand up to the big teams but are still a distance away from getting the job done on a consistent basis, while against Italy they delivered their best Six Nations win for several years.
With the Women’s Six Nations only having one down-week (something the men’s championship desperately needs), this final run of three games in three weeks is an ideal test run for what a World Cup pool stage will look like this summer.
Two wins from three in the pool will get Ireland through to the quarter-finals this summer, and likewise, two wins from this block of three will see them sign off on this championship in good health.
It’s difficult to get a read on Wales given they too have played England and France in their opening three games, and those games tend to cloud some of the statistics.
Two years ago they hammered Ireland at the Cardiff Arms Park and had a brilliant third-place Six Nations, but their elevation to WXV 1 was too much too soon, and they finished bottom of the table with one win from five games in 2024, including a 36-5 defeat against Ireland in Cork (below).
They are without the influential tighthead Sisilia Tuipulotu, who destroyed Ireland two years ago in Cardiff, but the core of the team remains from both their 2023 win against Ireland, and their heavy 2024 defeat.
While they are yet to win this season under their new head coach Sean Lynn, they do appear to be better than the 2024 version of themselves, and the return from injury of number 8 Alex Callender has boosted their pack considerably.
Lynn arrived from Gloucester-Hartpury just before this championship, signing off his final season with a Premiership title.
Four of this week’s Welsh starting XV played under Lynn at Gloucester-Hartpury, with 11 of the team coming from either the Premiership champions, Bristol Bears or Harlequins.
A large part of the Welsh game is dictated off their experienced scrum-half Keira Bevan, who has more kicks in play than any other nine in the championship. In total, Wales have kicked 33 times from scrum-half, 21 of those box kicks.
By contrast, Ireland are yet to box-kick once according to Opta stats, with their kicking strategy being long-and-on, using Dannah O’Brien and Stacey Flood to keep the ball infield, and win turnovers with their kick-chase. However, with Molly Scuffil-McCabe (below) brought in at nine, it could be a nod towards a more varied kicking strategy in Newport.
Ireland’s breakdown efficiency will be severely tested this afternoon in the absence of the injured Erin King. The flanker, who will now miss the World Cup with a knee injury, had been tireless around the pitch in the opening three games, leading the championship for both attacking and defensive ruck arrivals. Only England have had a faster average breakdown speed than Ireland, while only England have slowed down ball better.
Her absence will also be greatly felt at the lineout, where Ireland had been using the Sevens convert as their main option at the front, and she ranked second behind England’s Zoe Aldcroft for lineout takes coming into this week, with 19 across three games. The Irish throws will have to be spread out more evenly without her.
King is a unique kind of talent, and while Edel McMahon is unlikely to be a like-for-like replacement, the captain will bring a greater physicality.
While the Exeter and Connacht flanker (below) has been limited to just under 100 minutes so far, she leads the championship for dominant tackles per 80 minutes, averaging just over four.
That power game may be where Ireland have the edge this afternoon. No Welsh player is inside the top 25 individuals for broken tackles, while on the other side of the ball they don’t have a player in the top 20 for dominant tackles.
If Ireland can clean up their setpiece which came under pressure last week, and funnel the ball to the likes of Aoife Wafer and Brittany Hogan, it could be their recipe for success.
Verdict: Ireland by 10
Wales: Jasmine Joyce; Lisa Neumann, Hannah Jones (captain), Courtney Keight, Carys Cox; Kayleigh Powell, Keira Bevan; Gwenllian Pyrs, Kelsey Jones, Jenni Scoble; Abbie Fleming, Georgia Evans; Kate Williams, Bethan Lewis, Alex Callender
Replacements: Carys Phillips. Maisie Davies, Donna Rose, Natalia John, Alaw Pyrs, Sian Jones, Lleucu George, Catherine Richards
Ireland: Stacey Flood; Anna McGann, Aoife Dalton, Enya Breen, Amee-Leigh-Costigan; Dannah O'Brien, Molly Scuffil-McCabe; Siobhán McCarthy, Neve Jones, Linda Djougang; Ruth Campbell, Dorothy Wall, Brittany Hogan, Edel McMahon, Aoife Wafer
Replacements: Clíodhna Moloney, Sadhbh McGrath, Christy Haney, Fiona Tuite, Claire Boles, Emily Lane, Eve Higgins, Vicky Elmes Kinlan
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