Nothing lasts forever, and on Monday's Against the Head, the point was made that Scotland will eventually shake off their Irish hoodoo "one of these days".
Sitting at a bulging departure gate at Dublin Airport at 5.30am on Saturday morning, almost everyone catching a flight to Edinburgh from Ireland will be hoping today won't be one of them – one or two thistle-crested shirts aside.
As has become the regular narrative in this fixture, a well-fancied Irish side head to Murrayfield this afternoon to take on a Scottish team that are looking to back up some previous good work.
A Guinness Six Nations run for Scotland has become what a World Cup quarter-final win is for Ireland, but rather than once every four years, theirs is an annual tradition of hope and pain, and always in that order.
It’s 26 years since Scotland won the last of their 14 championships. In that time, they’ve seen Ireland, Wales and France collect six each, while England have added seven.
Even a Triple Crown – that thing that barely registers with Irish fans anymore – has proved elusive. Having lost to England when they did win the old Five Nations in 1999, you’d have to go back to the Grand Slam of 1990 for the last time they put together wins against England, Ireland and Wales in a single year.
For a good chunk of that 26-year gap since their last championship success, hope was in short supply, but since Gregor Townsend’s (above) arrival as head coach in the summer of 2017, plus Glasgow's URC title success last season, coupled with Blair Kinghorn thriving at Toulouse, means there is a core element of this team that know how to win silverware.
The problem for Townsend is that while his Scotland team are far better than they were in 2017, so too are Ireland and France.
There is a healthy amount of niggle between the sides, and not the manufactured kind.
While it has its roots in the long-standing beef between Munster and Glasgow, it’s made its way into the Test arena across the last half-decade in particular, hitting a peak in a fiery World Cup pool game in 2023, where Ireland emphatically won 36-14 to send Scotland home.
Joe Schmidt and Ireland were mocked by the Scots for blaming a late bus for their slow start in the 2017 defeat at Murrayfield – the last time Scotland beat Ireland – but there was similar schadenfreude in the opening game of 2020 when Stuart Hogg spilled the ball with nobody around him as he attempted to score a try.
While Ireland have dominated the last eight years of this fixture, winning 10 in a row, Scotland have had enough chances to break that run.
That blunder from Hogg in 2020 (above) was the lowlight, but the full-back also blew a golden chance in the 2022 meeting at the Aviva when he went for glory himself rather than playing Sam Johnson in for an easy try. That score could have brought Scotland back within two, but Ireland eventually cruised to a 26-5 win.
Ireland’s last visit to Murrayfield in 2023 would make you wonder if the hosts were actually cursed. With Dan Sheehan and Rónan Kelleher both injured, Ireland played the bulk of the second half with Cian Healy packing down at hooker in the scrum and Josh van der Flier throwing into lineouts, and still ran out comfortable winners before completing their Grand Slam a week later.
Perhaps unfairly, Scotland have a reputation for talking themselves up before their annual fall. When they get asked the inevitable 'can you win it?’ question every year, what are they expected to say?
This year of all years, their supporters probably came into the competition with pessimism rather than optimism. Having won a record nine games in 2024 – albeit with a handful against Tier 2 opposition – their January confidence was quickly ended when captain Sione Tuipulotu and second row Scott Cummings were both ruled out of the tournament due to injury, joining wing Kyle Steyn and flanker Andy Onyeama-Christie on the long-term injury list.
Their 31-19 win at home to Italy last week was far from perfect, particularly the middle third of the game where they threw away a 19-6 lead to get pegged back to 19-19, but they showed impressive composure to dig their way out of a hole with two tries in the final quarter.
In Tuipulotu’s absence, Stafford McDowall got the start against Italy, but Tom Jordan has replaced him at inside centre this afternoon, partnering Huw Jones, who has given Ireland major headaches in the last two years with a try in each game.
Jordan’s starting place offers a hint at how Scotland might look to attack Ireland. With the New Zealand native being a regular at out-half for Glasgow Warriors, his inclusion outside Finn Russell offers Scotland the option of two playmakers in the backline, which could give Russell more time and space on the ball to bring his lethal back three of Darcy Graham, Duhan van der Merwe and Blair Kinghorn into the game.
As exciting as the Scottish backline is, in recent years this game has been won and lost in the trenches, and this week’s Scotland selection reflects that, with regular first choice loosehead prop Pierre Schoeman held back on the bench, among a 6:2 split.
That reserve power will be needed, considering what Ireland’s bench brought to the table in last week’s win at the Aviva. Given the impact of Dan Sheehan (above), Jack Conan and Jack Crowley, Simon Easterby must have been tempted to put one or all of the trio into his starting side, but has instead kept them in reserve for when the game is in the balance.
The interim Ireland coach has made three changes to his side, who are chasing an unprecedented third men's Six Nations title in a row.
O’Mahony and Robbie Henshaw are in for Ryan Baird and Garry Ringrose, who both drop to the bench, while there was also a late change on Saturday, with a hamstring injury for Mack Hansen seeing Calvin Nash drafted onto the right wing.
O’Mahony’s inclusion nods towards Ireland going after the Scottish lineout, which they have done to good effect in recent years, with O’Mahony and James Ryan attacking their throw in both meetings during 2023. With Cummings absent, it could be an area to target.
The breakdown battle will also be fascinating. Scotland co-captain Rory Darge was a menace at the ruck against Italy, but they were also vulnerable in protecting their own ball, contributing to two of the penalties which kept Italy in touch.
If Ireland can limit Darge’s influence, and get O’Mahony, Tadhg Beirne, Josh van der Flier and co an their disruptive best, it could be they key to an eleventh win in a row in this fixture.
Verdict: Ireland
Ireland: Hugo Keenan; Calvin Nash, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Rónan Kelleher, Finlay Bealham; James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne; Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Dan Sheehan, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, Ryan Baird, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Garry Ringrose.
Scotland: Scotland: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Tom Jordan, Duhan van der Merwe; Finn Russell (co-capt), Ben White; Rory Sutherland, Dave Cherry, Zander Fagerson; Jonny Gray, Grant Gilchrist; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge (co-capt), Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Pierre Schoeman, Will Hurd, Sam Skinner, Gregor Brown, Jamie Ritchie, Jamie Dobie, Stafford McDowall.
Referee: James Doleman (NZR)
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