To start with a sobering statistic, it's 30 years since any team other than New Zealand have beaten South Africa at Loftus Versfeld.
The Springboks don’t have one specific home ground. A rugby-mad country of that size has to bring the show on the road to keep the masses happy, from Johannesburg to Cape Town, and Durban to Bloemfontein.
In Pretoria, their record is formidable where they’ve won 13 of their last 14 Tests, that sole defeat coming against the All Blacks in 2018, where two tries in the final four minutes saw New Zealand stage a miraculous comeback to win 32-30.
In short, if you want to beat the Boks at Loftus, it will take something special.
While Ireland and South Africa have developed quite the rivalry in the last two years, Andy Farrell was quick to point out that this hasn’t always been a frequent fixture in the rugby calendar.
While it’s their third meeting in consecutive years, there was a five-year gap to their previous clash, while this is Ireland’s first visit to South Africa since 2016, and just their tenth time facing the Springboks away from home.
These opportunities don’t come around often, as this week’s matchday squad illustrates, with 11 of the starting side and 17 of the matchday 23 set to play their first Test in South Africa.
Bundee Aki and Tadhg Beirne’s only Test experience here came behind closed doors on the 2021 Lions tour, while Robbie Henshaw, Tadhg Furlong, Finlay Bealham and Conor Murray are the only survivors in this week’s squad that featured in the 2016 series.
There are a number of reasons why this fixture has exploded into life in the last two years, the obvious one being how both teams have elevated themselves to the top of the world rankings, South Africa’s two World Cup titles ultimately trumping Ireland’s wins over the Boks in 2022 and 2023.
Also key has been the crossover of personnel involved. Many of the Irish players have played with or been coached by Rassie Erasmus and Jerry Flannery, as well as RG Snyman and Damian de Allende, while Jacques Nienaber’s arrival at Leinster this year, in addition to his time spent at Munster, has also given the Irish players an insight into the mindset of this current South African group.
"They've a great insight into what we've done, and likewise we know some of their people very intimately as well, and have spent a lot of time with them rugby-wise," Ireland captain Peter O’Mahony (above) said.
"I suppose it would be hard to argue that it doesn't add to wanting to win, and the whole Test match, it adds to it."
There are some new faces getting their first experience of the rivalry on both sides.
From an Irish perspective, Jamie Osborne’s selection at full-back was the major news of the week.
The 22-year-old's debut has been overdue given how regularly he’s been in wider squads across the last two seasons, but nobody outside of the Irish camp expected it to come in the 15 shirt.
With just two of his 48 Leinster appearances coming in the backfield, it represents a major gamble by Farrell. It’s arguably the boldest selection call the Ireland coach has taken in his four-and-a-half years in charge.
While it’s a significant risk, it’s also an exciting one. In Osborne’s short career to date, it’s clear to see he has a high ceiling to his game, and not just because he’s 6ft 4in.
The Naas RFC product (above) has been trusted on big occasions for Leinster, including a Champions Cup final, while he physically looks up to the demands of Test rugby. With a piledriver of a left foot, he could also play an important role at altitude as Ireland look to exit their own 22.
His inclusion in the starting side overshadowed the selection of Craig Casey at scrum-half.
With Jamison Gibson-Park injured, it looked to be a straight shoot-out between Casey and his Munster team-mate Conor Murray for the number nine jersey, and it was the former who got the nod, with Murray among the replacements.
With Casey a naturally high-tempo player, the 25-year-old fits the Gibson-Park mould, and if he can help Ireland into a promising position, then they can look to the experience of Murray off the bench to manage the game.
From a long-term perspective, now is the time to see if Casey is ready to take the next step.
The Shannon clubman has been around the Ireland squad for more than three years now, and while he’s earned 14 caps along the way, he hasn’t previously been able to get a chance to start against world class opposition.
The world champions, meanwhile, are leaning on experience, and there’s zero suggestion that this series is one for experimentation.
While there is a place on the bench for Stormers prospect Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulum(above), their starting team is as expected, with 15-cap wing Kurt-Lee Arendse the least experienced member of the line-up.
Their trump card could be at out-half, where Handre Pollard starts to earn his 70th cap. One of the main takeaways from recent Irish wins in the fixture was how South Africa were left to rue poor goalkicking, with Faf de Klerk and Manie Libbok combining to leave 11 points behind them off the tee in the World Cup meeting last year, while in 2022 it was Cheslin Kolbe and Damian Willemse who missed seven points worth of kicks.
With Pollard being one of the premier place-kickers in world rugby, Ireland know they can’t allow South Africa chip away at the scoreboard with three-pointers, particularly at altitude, where Pollard’s range will only increase.
Limiting the penalty count will be key, and one element of that will be locking out the scrum, which came under significant pressure in the World Cup in September. That night, the Boks also did a number on the Irish lineout, with Franco Mostert the chief disruptor.
Paul O’Connell, Peter O’Mahony and Tadhg Beirne have all stressed that the Irish setpiece has had the repairs it needed, but it remained unconvincing in the Six Nations.
On Friday, O’Mahony suggested that it would take this Irish side’s best ever performance to take a 1-0 series lead to Durban next week, and that doesn’t seem an exaggeration.
This Irish side have shown in the past that they can pull out something special with their backs against the wall, as they did away to New Zealand two years ago, or on the opening day of the Six Nations this year away to France.
Something similar will be needed today.
Verdict: South Africa
South Africa: Willie le Roux; Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse; Handre Pollard, Faf de Klerk; Ox Nche, Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe; Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert; Siya Kolisi (capt), Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kwagga Smith.
Replacements: Malcolm Marx, Gerhard Steenekamp, Vincent Koch, Salmaan Moerat, RG Snyman, Marco van Staden, Grant Williams, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu
Ireland: Jamie Osborne; Calvin Nash, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Jack Crowley, Craig Casey; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Peter O'Mahony (capt), Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, James Ryan, Ryan Baird, Conor Murray, Ciarán Frawley, Garry Ringrose.
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