Ireland attack coach Mike Catt expects Italy to become a more balanced team under new head coach Gonzalo Quesada, as the sides prepare to face off in Round 2 of the Guinness Six Nations this Sunday.
The Azzurri are starting from scratch again in 2024, having parted ways with Kieran Crowley following the World Cup. The New Zealander had been in charge of the country since 2021, and oversaw some famous one-off wins against Wales and Australia.
Despite causing France, Ireland and Scotland real problems during last year's championship, and playing some thrilling, attacking rugby along the way, the Federazione Italiana Rugby (FIR) decided against renewing Crowley's contract for 2024, before they spiraled during the World Cup under their lame duck coach.
It's very early days for Italy under Quesada, and his first game followed the usual script as they lost at home to England.
But the limited body of evidence we have of the Argentinean's gameplan is that they're going to have a more restrained style of play compared to last season. Against England last weekend, they kicked the ball 24 times, a huge increase on the 14 times they did so in the same fixture in 2023.
Their exit strategy against England also followed that trend. In 2023 they often tried to run their way out of trouble, choosing to carry the ball out of their 22 rather than kicking.
In four of their five games in the 2023 campaign, Italy's carries out of the 22 outnumbered their kicks, particularly in their final two games against Wales and Scotland where 60% and 53% of their exits from the 22 were carries. Against England on Saturday, that number fell dramatically to just 29%, as 57% of their exits out of their own 22 were kicks. The highest number of kicking exits they logged in the 2023 championship was just 44% according to Opta.
"Yeah, they have become... is it a little bit more pragmatic?" Ireland attack coach Mike Catt said, ahead of this Sunday's meeting at the Aviva Stadium.
Don't confuse a more conservative gameplan with a poor attack however.
Quesada's side scored two beautiful tries in the first half through Alessandro Garbisi and Tommaso Allan as they took advantage of England's teething problems in defence, while they showed they can still play a brilliant, unstructured style as they chased a losing bonus-point in the final minute in Rome.
"I think maybe it just depends who they play against, but they've definitely got both sides of a game they can go to. So we’re well aware of that and we’ve got to combat that," Catt, who was Italy's attack coach before joining Ireland in 2019, added.
"I think they've definitely put a little bit more time into their setpiece and their starter plays. They targeted George Ford nicely and then shot down that short side. They had some really good stuff and with a little bit better execution I think they would have been away with it.
"But it’s their phase stuff, their ability to get into their phase shape and hurt teams. The nice thing is they’ll keep progressing, they’re a week older as a group with the new coach so we expect them to be better than they were against England."
While it was ultimately a sixth defeat in a row for Italy in the Six Nations championship, they looked far more connected than they did during the World Cup when they effectively threw in the towel against New Zealand and France, conceding a combined 156 points across those two games.
"You think about that group, they held up their hands and said they didn't have a great World Cup. For them to come back under a new coach and perform like they did, and still have that ambition and were brave in what they did in attack, and score some brilliant tries, some amazing tries, I think it's all credit to the players.
"You watch them defensively too, they work so hard for each other, so, so hard for each other, especially in the scramble defence and stuff like that. Defensively they're strong, they’re strong."
Catt (above), who will leave Andy Farrell's coaching ticket after the summer tour of South Africa, wouldn't be drawn on his future plans, insisting he is concentrating fully on Ireland for the next five months.
And the former England international was particularly pleased with how his side shook off their World Cup frustration in their ruthless 38-17 win away to France last Friday.
"Starting any competition with a good win like that definitely helps, the two-week build-up in Portugal and going into Marseille, we were able to transfer what we'd worked on into the game.
"People were talking about hangovers from World Cups and that sort of stuff, but it was great to see the boys bouncing back in and being able to perform to a level that was acceptable and produce some brilliant stuff.
"Still, like the start of every competition there's a tonne of stuff you've to work on but we'll take the first one."
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