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Decision time for Andy Farrell as Calvin Nash and Joe McCarthy impress ahead of Six Nations opener

Andy Farrell is due to name his Ireland team today
Andy Farrell is due to name his Ireland team today

Andy Farrell will name his first starting line-up of the year later today, but the Ireland head coach is unlikely to spring many surprises.

The message from their Algarve training camp has been loud and clear: continuity is key.

It's an understandable mindset when two key changes have already been enforced upon them, with Johnny Sexton's retirement and injuries to both Mack Hansen and Jimmy O'Brien ensuring they we will at least see changes to the 10 and 14 shirt from the Rugby World Cup quarter-final starting side.

Jack Crowley, Ciarán Frawley and Harry Byrne are the trio contesting for Sexton's out-half spot, with Crowley looking most likely to be given the keys to the Irish backline in this Friday's opener at the Orange Velodrome (8pm).

The Munster out-half was second in command to Sexton at the World Cup, and while he's amassed nine caps for Ireland across the last 15 months, his introduction to the team has been gradual, with six of his appearances coming off the bench.

If he is given the start, as expected, his 10th cap will have the feeling of a second debut, and the start of a new era in Irish rugby.

Putting experienced structures around him will be key whether he sinks or swims, and, as such, Farrell isn't likely to tinker much with those around him.

Jack Crowley is expected to start at out-half

Jamison Gibson-Park is expected to hold off competition from Conor Murray and Craig Casey to start inside Crowley at scrum-half, while Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose will also likely retain their partnership from the World Cup in midfield.

James Lowe has played just two games since the World Cup exit, but his Champions Cup appearances for Leinster in recent weeks have put to bed any fears that he is lacking match practice, and he is expected to keep his place on the left wing, giving the side a strong left-footed kicking option.

At full-back, Hugo Keenan's place in the team is beyond question, and he'll be braced to deal with a kick-heavy French team.

The one other spot in the backline up for grabs is the right wing, where Hansen and O'Brien would have been the first and second-choice options but for injury.

Calvin Nash, Jordan Larmour and Jacob Stockdale are the wing options in the wider squad, but with Stockdale having played the vast majority of his rugby on the left wing and full-back, it looks like a shootout between Nash and Larmour for the starting post.

The pair were team-mates for the 2017 U20 Six Nations, with Larmour on the right wing and Nash on the left, but their careers took different paths.

Larmour exploded onto the scene in late 2017 to become a regular for Leinster and Ireland, and has won 30 caps to date.

Nash, on the other hand, found himself caught in a deep queue for game-time in the Munster backfield, and it wasn't until the 2022/23 season that he established himself as a first choice starter for the province.

Nash made his Ireland debut against Italy in August

Nash has been making up for lost time in the last 18 months however, and Munster's attacking game under Graham Rowntree and Mike Prendergast plays to his strengths.

The 26-year-old shows an impressive appetite for coming infield to look for work, with that style of play quite similar to how Farrell's Ireland have used Hansen in the past.

In the pack, the front row trio of Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong looks well settled, while Cian Healy, Rónan Kelleher and Finlay Bealham appear to be the established replacements.

Finding a long-term compliment for Porter at loosehead will be vital in the campaign, with Jeremy Loughman showing what he's capable of in Munster's impressive win against Toulon this month.

The big decision for Farrell in the pack will be how he shapes his second and back row.

Joe McCarthy's impressive recent form and his natural power and size makes this game an ideal opportunity to test his strengths. Accommodating him will require Farrell to move some furniture around.

The simple option would be to swap McCarthy (above) straight in for one of Tadhg Beirne or James Ryan who have been the established starting locks, with a back row of Josh van der Flier, captain Peter O'Mahony, and Caelan Doris at number 8.

The alternative would be to replicate the selection Farrell made in the opening Rugby World Cup game against Romania, where McCarthy replaced Van der Flier in the lineup, with Beirne dropping into the back row at blindside flanker, and O'Mahony shifting across to the openside.

There are also some key decisions to be made on the bench.

If Crowley is starting, one of Frawley or Byrne would be on the bench, and Frawley's versatility could see him pip his Leinster team-mate.

With Frawley potentially covering out-half and centre, and Ringrose or Keenan able to move across to the wing, that in turn could allow Farrell to take a gamble on power and go for a 6:2 split, where the likes of Iain Henderson, Ryan Baird, Jack Conan and Nick Timoney are all competing for a places in the matchday 23.

Possible Ireland team: Hugo Keenan; Calvin Nash, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Joe McCarthy, James Ryan; Tadhg Beirne, Peter O'Mahony (capt), Caelan Doris.

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