Pete Wilkins reckons Connacht are in "must-win" territory for their Investec Champions Cup clash with Lyon on Saturday.
Following heavy losses to Bordeaux Begles (41-5) and Saracens (55-36), the Westerners find themselves with just one point from 10 and bottom of Pool 1.
They arrested a five-game losing streak by beating Munster on New Year's Day but that victory came at a cost with Ireland wing Mack Hansen ruled out for three to four months with a dislocated shoulder and centre Cathal Forde (also shoulder) not expected back until mid-February.
Connacht host Pat Lam’s Bristol on Friday week, and are hoping to take fourth place and qualification for the round of 16.
Lyon, 13th in the Top14, are currently second in the pool after a narrow loss to the Bears and a win over the Bulls.
"Going into these Champions Cup games, mathematically, it's probably not must-win against Lyon but realistically I think it is in terms of how you expect other games in the pool will go over both weeks," said Wilkins.
"We’re certainly targeting fourth place [in Europe] and there is a home game to finish the group although Bristol are a terrifically strong team. But to finish the pool stages with a home game at least gives us an opportunity.
"Lyon have had their struggles and Toulouse played particularly well against them on Sunday [in a 45-0 win].
"They’ve had their issues and slipped to 13th place in the Top 14. There’s an opportunity there for us, of course, but as we all know, French teams at home are a different proposition.
"The way the fixtures play out for them, they have Perpignan at home when the Top 14 returns after the Champions Cup, which is a huge game for them in the context of their season. An away trip to Saracens a week before that.
"So I expect them to come for us fully-loaded because of that, they'll be at home and want to do well in front of their home fans and get some confidence, then perhaps de-load against Saracens in order to go again in the league and have a real crack against Perpignan.
"So I’m expecting Perpignan to be full-strength, I'm expecting them to be hungrier than ever, and more determined than ever and I think it will be a mighty challenge."
On the victory over Graham Rowntree's side at the Sportsground, Wilkins said: "It was a really important victory, I don't know if we needed a turning point in terms of how the whole season has gone but certainly it was important to break that run of defeats.
"It gives everyone a huge amount of belief and with that comes a huge amount of energy so we'll definitely need that over the next two weeks with the Champions Cup challenge and it sets up the second half of the season nicely."
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