Ireland convincingly beat Scotland on Saturday night to set up the double sided tale of revenge in a grudge match against the All Blacks this weekend.
Ireland were knocked out of the 2019 World Cup by New Zealand, losing 46-14 in a hugely underperforming tournament for Joe Schmidt in Japan. New Zealand later lost to England in the semi-final, but were far better than Ireland in the tournament four years ago.
New Zealand have only lost at the quarter-final stage in the World Cup once before, ironically it was 16 years ago in France against the hosts, when a dubiously forward pass stunned the favourites and New Zealand were out.
Despite never making it past a quarter-final at the tournament, Ireland are going into this game as favourites, seeking revenge for that World Cup loss to the same opposition. Since that tournament, Ireland have beaten New Zealand in Dublin in 2021, as well as winning the three test series in New Zealand in 2022, after losing the first game.
Outside of the World Cup itself, Ireland have a mental stranglehold against this era of All Blacks. However, Ireland will be fighting their own psychological battle with the World Cup tournament itself. They have never shied away from talking about the elephant in the room, the long looming disappointment of being knocked out prematurely in tournaments.
There's a lot of familiarity with Joe Schmidt now on the opposite side after leading Ireland through the 2019 World Cup where Andy Farrell was one of his assistant coaches. Greg Feek was also on Schmidt’s staff in Japan as the Irish scrum coach. Four years have passed and despite the game plan changing and the players evolving, there’ll still be a lot of knowledge of the Irish players in the All Blacks camp.
However, this is a different side now with a change in approach from Farrell and his coaching staff, under the psychological tutelage of Gary Keegan. Keegan has been around successful changing rooms and environments long before now, and he is tasked with Ireland’s greatest ever job of getting past a quarter-final, against one of the world’s most respected and successful teams.
New Zealand came up short already this year, being trounced by South Africa in the warm up games, in South Africa’s 7-1 split experiment, whatever that game counted for. The All Blacks were beaten up in the forward pack and therein lies the doubt in New Zealand rugby at the moment. Do their forwards have the hard edge to take on the top ranked sides?
They came unstuck again in the World Cup opener against the hosts. France were able to crank the pressure up a notch when they needed to and finished the game comfortably against an All Blacks side that didn’t have the answers, the power or the know-how to claw the game back, something you wouldn’t ordinarily say about the richest dynasty in world rugby.
Ireland may not have the raw power that South Africa and France have but the game details and knowledge allows them to play to their strengths, asking more questions of opposition defences. By running at space and not people, Ireland have shown how dangerous they are and how difficult they are to stop when they get into their flow. South Africa went a long way to disrupting the Irish game but the pleasing thing for Farrell is that they found a way.
Both sides can pull out a tactical masterclass when needed. Ireland already showed that they can attack differently between the Scotland and the South Africa game. They can adapt to the pictures shown by the opposition.
New Zealand are also elite when it comes to a one-off master stroke. The first Lions test in 2017 still stands out in my memory. All the talk was about how dangerous New Zealand were and how they would strike in the wider channels. They punched closer to the ruck in closer combat and comfortably won the first test. Joe Schmidt will add to this strategy with well-crafted, bespoke set piece plays that will attempt to manipulate the Irish flaws in defence, if they can find any.
Ireland’s defence has been outstanding, shutting out the evasive Scottish attack until the 65th minute when the game was over as a contest. They also kept South Africa to just 8 points in a low-scoring affair. Confidence in the system must be at an all-time high coming off the back of a long defensive spell against Scotland in the first half, one passage of play lasted 18 phases without Ireland showing signs of cracking.
Andy Farrell has spoken about the resilience that they’ve been building in their camp through the foundations of honesty and personality. He has sought and reveled in adversity since taking over as head coach.
Thankfully he has the Irish players and camp prepared for the worst because they’re in an inferior position to their opponents when it comes to injuries and fatigue. The injury report will be ever-changing this week as players like Lowe, Hansen, Ryan and Furlong go through their rehab protocols, as well the hamstring injuries to Earls and Henshaw.
Obviously, not all of those players can fit into the same squad because of the duplication of positions, but good news is needed on a number of fronts to be closer to full strength ahead of a career defining weekend for this Irish camp.
Ireland’s lineout was vastly improved last week, throwing closer to the front of the lineout. Henderson and O’ Mahony continuously changed the picture of their set up as they entered the lineout. They walked into the lineout showing the opposition their hand, then quickly shuffled their deck and then prompted the throw. New Zealand will still fancy themselves to turn over a couple of lineouts, but Ireland will have grown massively since the South African performance.
New Zealand have been on their own impressive road to redemption since they lost to France. They’ve scored 240 points and conceded 20 since the first game, albeit to much lesser opposition in Namibia, Italy and Uruguay. Do they have the stomach for the tough stuff?
Their playing style will change, their structures will tighten up and their resolve up front will be tested, yet they are the most dangerous side to play against when their backs are to the wall.
The early World Cup draw means that there’s been speculation and predictions made about this game for quite some time. Finally, this week is upon us and Ireland have the chance to create their own history.
It might be a nervy week building up to Saturday night for players and supporters alike. However, this team are more than prepared for the battle in Paris at the weekend, the wondering is nearly over. It’s time to find out exactly what they’re made of.
