The auditions are almost over, and now Ireland head coach Andy Farrell has to make his call.
On Sunday afternoon we'll find out the 33 names that have made it into Ireland’s Rugby World Cup squad.
Saturday night’s final warm-up against Samoa in Bayonne is unlikely to provide any last minute curveballs in the Irish coach’s thinking. It’s quite likely he’ll have pencilled in his selections in recent days, and only injury or a potential suspension coming out of tonight's game will change them.
Injuries can always complicate selection, and while Ireland have had to deal with a few over this warm-up period, it looks like they’ve made their way through August in decent nick; foot injuries for Dan Sheehan and Jack Conan provided the biggest scares but the news seems positive on both. Particularly with Ireland’s two toughest games coming late in the pool stage, time is on their side.
One of the biggest decisions Farrell will have to make will be the split of forwards and backs.
The 33-man squad is an increase on the 31-man panel Joe Schmidt had to contend with four years ago and the most likely scenario is that those extra places will be filled by an extra prop and scrum-half.
Ireland are the last of the major Six Nations and Rugby Championship sides to announce their squad for the tournament, with almost all of them so far going for 19 forwards and 14 backs, New Zealand being the only tournament contender to go for an 18/15 split.
For much of the summer, it’s been expected that Farrell would opt for 19 forwards and 14 backs, but as the tournament creeps closer the argument for an 18/15 spit is compelling.
If, as expected, he takes three players in each position of the front row, the versatility of Ireland’s back-five forwards means he could still give himself multiple options in each position with 18 forwards, allowing him more security in midfield – a position where Ireland have had regularly picked up injuries.
Front Row
With two extra squad places in comparison to 2019, it’s expected the Six Nations champions will allocate one of those to prop, allowing them to be three-deep in each of the front row positions.
The temptation is still there to pick five props and use that extra space somewhere else, particularly given how versatile Ireland’s propping options are; Cian Healy, Andrew Porter and Finlay Bealham are all capable of playing both tight and loosehead prop, but the fact that Farrell has only played his props in their primary positions during the warm-up games would indicate he’s likely to take the safer option.
At tighthead, selection seems straightforward with Tadhg Furlong, Bealham and Tom O’Toole the established trio, while Porter and Healy will make the cut at loosehead.
The final prop spot appears to be between Dave Kilcoyne and Jeremy Loughman, with Kilcoyne having been sidelined for the last couple of weeks with injury. Loughman was called into the squad in the week of the England win and played the final eight minutes of the win against England off the bench. He's in line to come off the bench again this evening in Bayonne, but it looks like his place in the World Cup squad will largely depend on his Munster teammate's fitness.
Injuries will also dictate what happens at hooker. At the start of the summer it looked like Dan Sheehan, Rob Herring and Rónan Kelleher were in possession of the three spots, while rookie Tom Stewart was in camp to learn the ropes in case of injury.
Sheehan appears to be on track to recover from his foot injury, while Herring looks certain to travel. For the final spot, we have to make assumptions around the fitness of Kelleher who has been carrying a hamstring injury, while the Leinster hooker’s durability could be an issue having picked up a number of injuries in the last two seasons.
When fit, Kelleher has been a consistent selection in the Ireland squad under Farrell and that credit in the bank may just keep him involved, although Stewart looks more than capable of stepping up if needed.
Second Row and Back Row
Depending on whether Farrell goes for 18 of 19 forwards, the Ireland coach has left himself with either nine or ten players to pick from in the remainder of the pack.
Most of the World Cup contenders have taken 10 players across the second and back rows, but the versatility of Ireland’s pack means Farrell could take one fewer – freeing up an extra centre place – while not leaving his pack short changed.
At second row, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne and Iain Henderson are nailed on to be involved, as are back rows Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier, Peter O’Mahony and Jack Conan, if he’s fit.
Should Farrell go for a 19/14 split then there’s no decision to be made; Ryan Baird, Joe McCarthy and Cian Prendergast would all be selected. However, the growing belief that Farrell could take 18 forwards means one of those three may lose out, particularly with both Beirne and Henderson able to switch between second and back row.
Baird looks like the front-runner for one of those spots with the Leinster man having been a consistent presence in squad for the last two years, while his versatility means he can also cover both second row and blindside flanker.
Prendergast also brings versatility, but McCarthy’s physicality stood out in both warm-up games against Italy and England, and the 22-year-old looks to have played himself into contention after missing out on the Six Nations due to injury.
Half-Backs
We’re unlikely to see any major surprises at scrum-half and out-half.
At scrum-half, Jamison Gibson-Park, Conor Murray and Craig Casey have been the established trio, and although Ireland only brought two scrum-halves to previous World Cups, it would be a surprise to see Farrell do similar.
The out-half selection is equally straightforward. Captain Johnny Sexton is expected to be joined on the plane by Jack Crowley and Ross Byrne.
For a time this summer, it was thought that Ciarán Frawley’s versatility could see him squeeze in at the expense of either Crowley or Byrne, but with the Leinster man having played just once off the bench in the three warm-up games it now looks unlikely he’ll crash the party.
Centre
Ireland have real depth at centre, to the point that it’s created one of the main selection headaches.
When fit, any two of Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki have started in the centre, while there’s also cover available if needed through Crowley and Jimmy O’Brien who is likely to be included as a utility backline option.
For a long time this summer, it looked like Farrell was going to choose just 14 backs in his squad, and it looked like Stuart McCloskey might be the man to miss out behind other versatile options.
The Ulster centre has been a reliable option in the last 12 months though and has started seven of Ireland’s last ten games. His inclusion alongside Henshaw in the midfield against Samoa tonight looks like a pointed selection; Farrell has paired them together for two of the three warm-up games and it looks like this is a combination the head coach is likely to use at the tournament against either Romania or Tonga.
Wing and Full-Back
With James Lowe, Mack Hansen and Hugo Keenan locked in, Jimmy O’Brien and Keith Earls look like making the final squad, with Jacob Stockdale expected to lose out.
O’Brien has proven to be a useful addition to the Irish squad in the last 12 months, covering wing, full-back and centre across his seven caps. Having started two games at full-back this summer, he also looked like being the next cab off the rank in the event of an injury to Keenan.
It was always expected to come down to Earls and Stockdale for the last back-three place, and with Earls having now been picked in the squad for all three of Ireland’s warm-up games, and Stockdale not featuring since the first of those against Italy, it looks like the Munster man will take the final place in the squad, which would see him go to a fourth Rugby World Cup.
Predicted Ireland squad
Forwards (18)
Andrew Porter, Cian Healy, Dave Kilcoyne; Dan Sheehan, Rónan Kelleher, Rob Herring; Tadhg Furlong, Finlay Bealham, Tom O'Toole; James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson, Ryan Baird, Joe McCarthy; Josh van der Flier, Peter O'Mahony, Caelan Doris, Jack Conan
Backs (15)
Jamison Gibson-Park, Conor Murray, Craig Casey; Johnny Sexton, Ross Byrne, Jack Crowley; Bundee Aki, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Stuart McCloskey; James Lowe, Mack Hansen, Jimmy O'Brien, Keith Earls, Hugo Keenan
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