Stephen Ferris says Connacht's BKT URC quarter-final hopes against Ulster rest on the shoulders of out-half Jack Carty, who must "play out of his skin" for the westerners to have any hope on Friday night.
Andy Friend brings his team to Kingspan Stadium for what could be his last macth at the helm. It's been a long goodbye for Friend, who confirmed his season-ending departure last November.
Ferris fancies his old team to do the business on home soil, but if Carty is in the groove, he believes the visitors are in with a shout.
"For Connacht to stand a good chance of winning of this game, Jack Carty is going to have to play out of his skin," he told RTÉ 2fm's Game On.
"They are a quality outfit. This could possibly be Andy Friend's last game as he moves on. Something they'll be talking about is their discipline and making sure they don't give away cheap penalties becasue they know how strong this Ulster maul is.
"I think they've got the best stats in the whole of European rugby when it comes to how effective their maul can be.
"A lot of it has to come down to the controlling of the game and Jack... we've seen him play some brilliant rugby this season but also some mediocre rugby."
Connacht have twice been beaten by Ulster this season, the aggregate score 58-30 with six of eight tries conceded coming directly from penalty concessions.
"One thing with Connacht is they will never, ever, ever back down from a challenge."
In total Friend's men have conceded 23 penalties and one yellow card in this season’s fixtures against Ulster. That simply has to change, warned Ferris.
"When you give away penalties it's usually becaue you're comng under pressure. That's what Ulster are very good at doing.
"Connacht, when they give away a penalty or two they add more to that and give away another couple. Then all of a sudden they find themselves down on the scorebard.
"But one thing with Connacht is they will never, ever, ever back down from a challenge. When you bring guys back in, winners like Bundee Aki and Mack Hansen, and even somebody like Tiernan O'Halloran who has won a Pro12 as it was back then... they're going to be a match for anybody when they're fully loaded.
"It's just the bench that they've brought on in their last few games hasn't been up to the same standard. Even their last match against Glasgow, they were in it the whole time, but when they brought on their bench they seemed to go into their shells a little bit.
"Connacht had a good result in Belfast in 2018 and another one in April 2021, so they can come to Belfast and win.
"They've got a really strong squad announced - Finlay Bealham, who has been exceptional all season in the Connacht green and the green of Ireland. They're really going to put it up to Ulster but I just think that home advantage will be really significant in the outcome of the game."
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