With three of the four rounds complete in the Heineken Champions Cup pool stage, eight of the last 16 teams are now confirmed, but there's still a lot of jostling to be done for the final seedings this weekend.
Leinster are qualified and almost certain to have a home tie, while things are less sure for Munster and Ulster.
Munster are well placed to finish in the top eight of Pool B, but will need some luck elsewhere if they're to stand a chance of getting home advantage in the last 16, while the permutations are relatively simple for Ulster, who remain in the hunt thanks to their losing bonus points.
POOL A
LEINSTER
The only team in the competition with three bonus point wins from three, their qualification for the last 16 is already secured, and they look a safe bet to be playing in Dublin in the next round and beyond, ahead of welcoming Racing 92 to the Aviva Stadium this Saturday (3.15pm, live on RTÉ Radio 1, RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player).
Another bonus point win would guarantee a first place finish in the pool, and give them a significant advantage in the knockout stage, allowing them to play every remaining game in the capital, including the final if they get there.
Given their huge points difference advantage over the Cell C Sharks and Saracens, Leinster would also realistically finish top of the pool if they beat Racing 92 without a bonus point.
In the unlikely event of a draw (or even a situation where Leinster finish with two bonus points), Leo Cullen's side would earn home advantage in the Round of 16, and finish third place in the pool at worst, and if they were to lose with a bonus point, they would also still finish inside the top four and have a home game in the next round.
Even if they were to lose against Racing without picking up a bonus point, they would probably still get a home last-16 game, barring a set of results so extreme it would likely lead to an investigation from competition organisers. All of the following would need to happen:
- The Sharks would need to win, draw or lose with two bonus-points away to Harlequins
- Exeter would have to beat Castres with a bonus-point
- Edinburgh would have to beat Saracens with a bonus point, while Saracens would also have to score at least four tries, and finish within seven points of the Scottish side
POOL B
MUNSTER
Graham Rowntree's side haven't guaranteed qualification yet, but it's entirely possible they could be through to the next round before they even kick-off away to Toulouse on Sunday.
If any of Montpellier (home v London Irish), Clermont Auvergne (away v Stormers) or Sale Sharks (away v Ulster) are beaten, Munster's passage to the next round will be confirmed, regardless of what happens in their meeting with the five-time champions.
A losing bonus point is likely to be enough to get through to the next round anyway. If they lose by seven points or less, the only scenario that will see them eliminated would be wins for Montpellier, Clermont and a bonus point victory for Sale away to Ulster, while there would also need to be a 19-point swing on the differential between Munster and Sale.
A draw would guarantee them a place in the last 16, and it could potentially be enough for a home game in the next round, but they would need Stormers and Ospreys (away v Leicester Tigers) to lose by more than seven points, and they would also be hoping Montpellier lose, draw or win by fewer than 12 points, while also scoring fewer than four tries.
There are several other ways for them to to secure a home game in the last 16, but all of those outcomes rely on results elsewhere. If they win without a bonus point, they would also need both the Stormers and Ospreys to lose, or for the pair to draw without a try-scoring bonus.
Should Munster win with a bonus point (while also denying Toulouse any bonus points), they would still be hoping for Leicester to avoid defeat at home against the Ospreys in order to finish inside that top four.
ULSTER
Ulster have the shortest list of permutations to worry about, but Dan McFarland's side have to win against Sale in order to reach the last 16. A draw or a defeat will not be enough.
In the event of a bonus point win, they will still be hoping for at least ONE of the following two outcomes:
- Clermont Auvergne lose to the Stormers and score fewer than four tries
- Montpellier lose to London Irish by more than seven points, and score fewer than four tries
If Ulster win without a bonus point, they would also need ONE of these two outcomes:
- Clermont lose by more than seven points to the Stormers and score fewer than four tries
- Montpellier lose to London Irish by enough to make up the points differential between them and Ulster (see table above), while scoring fewer than four tries
CHALLENGE CUP
With three wins from three, Connacht are already guaranteed a last-16 game in this season's Challenge Cup, but will be hoping to stay inside the top four to ensure they're at the Sportsground in the next round.
Following Wednesday's confirmation that Bristol Bears have been deducted five points for fielding an ineligible played in their first two games versus Perpignan and Zebre, Connacht's task this weekend has been made even simpler.
A losing bonus point is all Andy Friend's side need in order to guarantee themselves a home tie in the next round.
Even if Connacht were to lose by more than seven points away to Newcastle, Bristol would still have to secure a bonus point win against Perpignan on Friday night, while also hoping for a 24-point swing in the differential in order to pip the province to the top four.
Finishing top of the pool seems beyond Connacht though, with Toulon expected to be easy winners versus Zebre, but if Cardiff were to miss out on a bonus-point win at Brive, Connacht could overtake them into second place with a big win of their own. Finishing second would see Connacht at home in the last 16, as well as a potential quarter-final, should they advance.
