Andy Farrell takes charge of Ireland for the 30th time on Saturday night as they bid to sign off on a groundbreaking year with a ninth win from 11 games.
Having already taken the scalps of world champions South Africa and New Zealand, Ireland can complete a clean sweep of victories over the three southern hemisphere heavyweights in the same calendar year for only the second time.
Farrell was part of Joe Schmidt's coaching ticket when Ireland first achieved that feat in 2016. Victory over the Wallabies will also see the Englishman equal the record of 12 home wins that was set by his predecessor.
Farrell admitted he was embarrassed about being nominated for world coach of the year earlier this week but it is just rewards for the 47-year-old, who has forged his own path since replacing Schmidt after the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
Hark back to when Farrell was at the beginning of his tenure and plaudits were few and far between. Ireland appeared to be stagnating, unable to compete with physically-superior sides like France and England, while Mike Catt was copping heat for a misfiring Irish attack.
Farrell lost five of his first 11 games in charge but since dominating England at an empty Aviva Stadium in the final game of the 2021 Six Nations, they have been on an upward curve. This year alone has seen them win a Triple Crown, rise to No 1 in the world on the back of a series win in New Zealand, before downing the world champions in Dublin earlier this month.
There remains a nervous energy among Irish rugby fans, who remember Ireland’s dominant 2018 was followed by a limp Rugby World Cup exit in Japan, but there appears to be no such concerns among the players about peaking a year too soon. They believe there is still plenty of room for improvement.
Farrell enjoyed plenty of famous tussles against Australia during his playing days but this will be the first time he has faced them as a head coach. The Wallabies have copped plenty of flak back home after flopping in Florence and the pressure is mounting on head coach Dave Rennie, who has a win rate of 37% since taking charge in 2020.
Australia have lost eight of their 12 Tests this year and while many of those matches went down to the wire, their players ultimately found a way to lose, be it Bernard Foley’s dithering over a penalty against the All Blacks to Ben Donaldson’s missed conversion against Italy last weekend.
This year’s Rugby Championship summed up their inconsistent state. A five-try win over Argentina in their opening match was followed by a record loss to the Pumas. They beat South Africa in round three only to suffer a one-sided defeat against the world champions a week later. And having spurned a glorious chance to beat New Zealand in Melbourne, they then received an all-too-familiar hiding at Eden Park in their final outing.
Rennie has shouldered the blame for those failings despite the players being culpable for much of the above. It’s something Nic White admitted earlier this week when speaking to the media.
"We don’t have our heads buried in the sand, I understand the pressure that’s come on," said the scrum-half, who wins his 59th cap on Saturday.
"It’s disappointing as a playing group, letting him down, and that he’s got this sort of pressure because we absolutely love being coached by Dave. He is a phenomenal coach, I’ve said it a number of times now that our coaching staff is world class and that we as a playing group aren’t there yet."
Rennie was dealt a difficult hand by his employers this autumn. The Wallabies are the only touring team playing five Tests, which has tested the depth of his squad. A much-changed line-up disappointed against Italy but Rennie has reverted to the side that should have beaten France.
White and Bernard Foley form an experienced half-back partnership while, just like Fiji last week, Australia possess players who are more than capable of scoring breakaway tries from inside their own half.
Rennie has plenty of impact on his bench too, although it was a surprise to see Will Skelton kept in reserve given the disruption he has caused against Irish provinces while in a La Rochelle and Saracens shirt.
Farrell has also reverted to what is close to his strongest starting XV, with skipper Johnny Sexton back at out-half, but there were some big calls such as retaining Stuart McCloskey at 12 despite the return of Bundee Aki from suspension. Jimmy O’Brien wins his third cap, in his third different position, the 25-year-old named on the left wing after recent outings at centre and full-back, while highly-rated lock Joe McCarthy should make his debut from the bench.
Ireland have won four of their last five meetings against Australia but the margin of victory was five points or less in each of those successes.
The bookmakers are not predicting as close a contest on Saturday and that is largely due to Ireland’s discipline – and Australia’s lack thereof. The Wallabies conceded 42 penalties in their first three autumn Tests, including 16 against Italy. Since June 2021 they have received 20 yellow cards and three reds, which is in stark comparison to Ireland’s two yellow cards during the same period.
If Australia are to win in Dublin for the first time since 2013 they must target the breakdown and set-piece, but that’s a risky approach for a team that racks up so many penalties, against a team that is so good at exploiting them.
With the exception of the Fiji game, Ireland don’t tend to squander visits into the opposition 22, and any Australian indiscipline could result in a another Dan Sheehan special from a driving lineout.
Ireland will be keen to show they have plenty more strings to their attacking bow, however. They have yet to really hit their straps from phase play this autumn, where the final pass has sometimes been lacking. An Australian defence that coughs up penalties and – as recent history shows – is likely to be at a numerical disadvantage at some stage of the contest, presents Ireland with the chance to get their backline firing and turn penalties into points.
Ireland have never been such resounding favourites heading into a match against one of the southern hemisphere’s big three but that comes with the territory these days for Farrell’s men.
A 23rd win of his 30-game reign would cap off another 12 months of progression.
Verdict: Ireland
Ireland: Hugo Keenan; Jimmy O'Brien, Garry Ringrose, Stuart McCloskey, Mack Hansen; Johnny Sexton, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan; Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris
Replacements: Rob Herring, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Joe McCarthy, Jack Conan, Craig Casey, Jack Crowley, Bundee Aki
Australia: Andrew Kellaway; Mark Nawaqanitawase, Len Ikitau, Hunter Paisami, Tom Wright; Bernard Foley, Nic White; James Slipper (capt), Dave Porecki, Allan Ala'alatoa; Nick Frost, Cadeyrn Neville; Jed Holloway, Michael Hooper, Rob Valetini
Replacements: Folau Fainga'a, Tom Robertson, Taniela Tupou, Will Skelton, Pete Samu, Jake Gordon, Noah Lolesio, Jordan Petaia
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