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First up, the maths: Ireland can retain their Six Nations title but it's a long shot. Bonus-point wins over France today and Wales next week would leave them on 19 points.
However, England's victory over Italy means that a five-point win over Scotland at home next week would put Eddie Jones' men out of reach for Ireland.
The equation doesn't look good.
"We’ve probably got a slightly different brief this Championship as much as we want to stay right in the mix," said Ireland head coach Joe Schmidt on Friday, revealing that the sums aren't even worth doing.
The game is about righting the wrongs of the previous three games in order to gain a some degree of momentum before a slam-buster against Wales next week.
What Joe Schmidt craves more than anything is an improved performance, a visible and tangible sign that whatever went wrong in the opening three games was just a blip.
With three wins from five campaigns to date this Six Nations was always going to be about buttressing for the World Cup. But the failure to find anything like their 2018 form is still a worry.
The team may have taken criticism for failing to deliver the cohesion in the Italy game but that must be put to one side.
This game presents a great opportunity get back on the horse. Firstly, there's the Aviva factor.
"I've had four appeals over the last couple of days from people looking for tickets and I think the enthusiasm of our support has not changed and we're incredibly appreciative of that," said Schmidt ahead of what will be his Six Nations swansong at Lansdowne Road.
"We've got to get into this game, stay in this game and then we keep the crowd with us. It's a responsibility we're conscious of and one I hope we deliver on."
Secondly, Ireland are a better team than France.
On recent evidence, not by much, but in development terms, Ireland are targetting a World Cup in Japan, Les Bleus, it seems, are fully focused on the home tournament in 2023.
"I am looking for our younger players to progress in every game. They have shown a lot of calm against Scotland but this will be another test," said Jacques Brunel, whose team have won just two of their last 11 away games in the Six Nations, both against Italy.
Ireland have brought back the big guns for this one with 322 caps coming into the team from seven changes to the starting line-up.
The two teams have the best @SixNationsRugby scrum records to date #RTErugby #IREvFRA pic.twitter.com/LXLaABkpZb
— RTÉ Rugby (@RTErugby) March 9, 2019
Back come Cian Healy, James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Josh van der Flier, CJ Stander, Garry Ringrose and captain Rory Best, who yesterday said he's likely to retire after the World Cup.
Brunel has selected the same squad that beat Scotland comfortably in Paris two weeks ago and that was the first time in 76 games that the French have stuck rather than twisted in the selection process.
That XV includes the novel half-back pairing of Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, who will go toe-to-toe with the experienced Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton. Ireland must press the advantage here.
Further out Bundee Aki and Ringrose will be tasked with marshalling Gael Fickou (14st) and Mathieu Bastareaud (19st).
Which @irishrugby team will turn up? 'Hopefully not the one that lost against England' - @Ringrose_G talks to @MicilGlennon ahead of #IREvFRA @SixNations #rterugby - More here https://t.co/aGREDG8VAb pic.twitter.com/UHF4CSnJ6G
— RTÉ Rugby (@RTErugby) March 9, 2019
"He's a big man and has a serious turn of pace," Ringrose said of Stade Francais centre Fickou.
"He has beaten lads on the outside with his pace and having played on the wing has proved he's fast enough to play there. But equally he's really good at stepping in and taking your inside shoulder, which is always a challenge at 13 especially someone of his size and pace. That will be a massive challenge for me."
France lead the way in the line-breaks so far this tournament with 17, while the visitors have made 48 offloads, to Ireland's nine. They are also out front in tries from turnovers with three, so the usual caveat about loose kicking, a problem so far for Ireland, applies.
One of France's biggest threats is that they don't know when they are supposed to lose. They forgot last year and Ireland needed five magical minutes to rescue it at the death.
The general feeling is that Ireland are running out of time to find their form. The thoughts of going to the Principality Stadium cauldron on the back of a first home defeat to France since 2011 should serve to spur Schmidt's troops.
Verdict: Ireland by 10
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Ireland: Rob Kearney, Keith Earls, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale, Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray; Cian Healy, Rory Best (capt), Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, CJ Stander.
Replacements: Niall Scannell, David Kilcoyne, John Ryan, Ultan Dillane, Jack Conan, John Cooney, Jack Carty, Jordan Larmour.
France: Thomas Ramos, Damian Penaud, Mathieu Bastareaud, Gael Fickou, Yoann Huget, Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont; Jefferson Poirot, Guilhem Guirado (capt), Demba Bamba, Felix Lambey, Sebastien Vahaamahina, Wenceslas Lauret, Arthur Iturria, Louis Picamoles.
Replacements: Camille Chat, Etienne Falgoux, Dorian Aldegheri, Paul Willemse, Gregory Alldritt, Baptiste Serin, Anthony Belleau, Maxime Medard.
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
