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Defiant Joe Schmidt hopes fine margins swing in Ireland's favour against Wales

Action from last season's Six Nations clash between Wales and Ireland
Action from last season's Six Nations clash between Wales and Ireland

Over the course of his time fielding questions from the assembled media after naming his team to play Wales, Joe Schmidt honed in on why Ireland have failed to get the better of the Welsh in recent encounters.

The Irish have won just two of the last eight competitive games between the sides – the two 2015 Rugby World Cup warm-up encounters were evenly split – and are searching for a first win over Warren Gatland’s side since 2014.

The overall record is 68-50 in Wales’ favour, but given Ireland’s strength in recent times, there is something about Wales that has the men in green searching for answers. But what is it?

Ireland outhalf Jonathan Sexton has his eye on the ball

"Fine margins" was a phrase repeated again and again, and it is true that some of the games have swung on crucial moments. Last year Ireland failed to register a try in a 22-9 defeat in Cardiff, with the Welsh defence standing firm and Johnny Sexton spending time in the sin-bin.

On Wales' last visit to Dublin, neither side could steal a march in a 16-16 draw. Ireland have more often than not come out the right side of defensive pragmatism balanced against attacking verve, but Shaun Edwards’ defensive systems have proven very tricky to break down.

Still Schmidt reiterates there is little to choose between two quality sides. "Last year we make a great line break right at the start of the game and [Ross] Moriarty doesn’t release," he told RTÉ Sport.

"There is no yellow card for that one. On the back of that, if we get that ball quickly from Simon [Zebo], I think we could score.

"Even towards the end of that game, there is a great chance in the right-hand corner from a great attacking couple of phases of play. Seventy four minutes gone and we are inches away from scoring. When you get that close, I think you are capable of doing it. It’s just can you do it on the day."

Tries against top level teams in international rugby are increasingly difficult to engineer and Ireland have relied on a peerless defence as the foundation for success. With one try in two games against Wales – Gatland’s side have claimed four in that time – it was put to Schmidt whether a change in tactic may be required.

"What can you change? It’s a game of rugby," he replied.

"Sometimes we kick, sometimes we run wide, sometimes we go through the middle. I think if everyone tried to analyse what we do do, there is a lot of variety in what we do.

"The times that we have managed to not quite get the result against Wales, we have probably had as much of the game as they have had and haven’t been quite able to put the game away.

"Do we play slightly differently from two years ago? I think anyone who does analysis would say yes we do. There are some changes in what we do. I’m obviously not going to explain them, but that’s a challenge for you guys, I guess."

While Wales welcome Leigh Halfpenny, Liam Williams and Dan Biggar back into their team, Ireland have to contend with losing three Lions of their own. Robbie Henshaw is out for the rest of the campaign, while Tadhg Furlong and Iain Henderson should return for round four after failing to win their fitness battles for this one.

"It’s not ideal, but at the same time, if you want to learn, what better environment than what will be a white-hot atmosphere at the Aviva on Saturday," Schmidt offers.

Saturday’s visitors have impressed Schmidt and he is not expecting a ‘one size fits all approach’ as perhaps has been the case in the past with a physically imposing backline.

The 2018 crop are playing with more attacking zeal which adds to the challenge.

"The way they are playing at the moment and the width Rob Howley has them playing with, I think we have to be ready for whatever they throw at us," he said.

"I have no doubt that they will vary their game up. They drive a lot of lineouts and play the ball in the air a lot because they have good guys going after it."

The loss of Furlong is arguably the biggest alteration to the team, but Schmidt has great faith in Andrew Porter after his early introduction against Italy and is excited by what the tighthead can bring to the table.

"Andrew did sterling job for 76 and a half minutes," he said. "It’s not the same level. Nicola Quaglio a tricky customer. It’s all good learning experiences. They have got to learn somewhere and this is a really good opportunity."

Centre Chris Farrell too has earned his chance at this level – "I’ve been talking to Chris for three or four years. He’s been a long-term project" – and the clear message was that the focus is on the players available, rather than those absent.

The Italian result comes with an asterix beside it. Conor O’Shea’s side were not at the races in the opening 40 minutes at the Aviva, so it remains to be seen just what this relatively new-look Ireland team is capable of against a step-up in opposition. The build-up bears a similarity to the corresponding fixture two years ago, but Schmidt will be hoping for a different outcome after letting slip a 13-3 lead.

"It ended up as a 16-16 on the back of us having a number of players missing," recalls Schmidt. "History, if it does repeat itself, we are in a similar circumstance this time as well. We are going to have to demonstrate that there is a strength of squad."

The majority of the capacity crowd on Saturday afternoon will be certainly hoping the fine margins go their way.

Follow Ireland v Wales on Saturday (KO 2.15pm) via the live blog on RTÉ.ie/Sport and the News Now App, or listen live on RTÉ Radio 1, with commentary from Michael Corcoran and Donal Lenihan.

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