Rob Kearney can do the sums in his head. Leinster are out.
The Ireland full-back won’t be taking out his calculator to check what sequence of results they need to get out of Champions Cup Pool 5.
Those that are that way inclined will tell you that, despite losses to Wasps, Bath and Toulon, the three-time champions are still in it. But they’re not really.
In most group table situations where it’s still mathematically possible to qualify, the players and management will make positive soundings to the media. Kearney doesn’t have the heart to play that game.
The Louth man and his team-mates are preparing to welcome Toulon, three-in-a-row winners of the competition, to the Aviva on Saturday (5.15pm).
Barring an unlikely bonus-point win, the final nail in the coffin will be firmly hammered in by the visitors.
Asked if they are taking qualification off the table, Kearney told RTÉ Sport: “Yeah, I think we have to.
“This week is all about a win. The chances of winning against Toulon and playing poorly are pretty slim, so if we do win you’re probably going to have a good performance with that.
“So qualification, mathematics, it’s probably a little bit out the window for us this week. It’s more important about getting a good performance and a win.
“The writing is on the wall for us in Europe.”
Leo Cullen’s side are certainly not used to this feeling. Being out of contention halfway through a European campaign is a new one for this group of players.
“It’s dark enough today,” said Kearney when asked about the feeling in the camp in the aftermath of the 24-9 defeat at Stade Mayol.
“We need time after a loss. You come in, you have to review the game, you have to see pictures, the vision that you don’t really want to see.
“This one’s probably a little bit more difficult, the fact that we’re probably as good as out of Europe. It does make it a bit tougher.
“It is dispiriting. It’s tough but playing for pride isn’t a cliché. It is a reality and that’s the situation we’re in now.
"Playing for pride isn’t a cliché. It is a reality"
"We need to play for pride this weekend and put a performance together that we’re proud of.
“We need a performance, we need a victory.
“They are definitely beatable. We did have a few opportunities, we didn’t take them. When you are away against Toulon, you can’t afford to do that.”
Meanwhile, Leinster and Ireland prop Cian Healy has been cited for an incident with Toulon's Guilhem Guirado during Sunday's game.
A disciplinary hearing will take place in Paris on Thursday and the sanction for 'striking an opponent with the knee' can be anything from three weeks to a year.
Healy was yellow-carded during the game but the match citing commissioner, John Byett from England, subsequently made a complaint to European Professional Club Rugby.
