Munster v Glasgow Warriors, Ravenhill, 6.30pm (Live commentary on RTÉ Radio 1)
This won’t be easy.
Munster have shown over the last few months that they can produce a big performance when they need to.
Contributions have come from unexpected quarters with the likes of a pair of storming performances from the props and an excellent outing from the evergreen Denis Hurley proving extremely valuable against the Ospreys in the semi-final.
But there is no getting away from the fact that injuries to both Conor Murray and Peter O’Mahony seriously weaken Munster.
Those absences do so in positions that are vital to the outcome in what is likely the key battleground in this game.
When fit, Murray is unquestionably the senior partner to Ian Keatley at half-back – as well as being accurate and influential as a playmaker, he is physically a hugely important asset in the close exchanges.
O’Mahony is also a major player for Munster. The team captain and a massive influence in defensive situations, his absence combined with that of Tommy O’Donnell’s means Munster must field Billy Holland in the second row, Donnacha Ryan at six and Paddy Butler at seven.
There is no question that Holland and Butler are good replacements. Butler has already had a superb game in the semi-final. In fact, had they been on the bench their impact late in the game might have been critical but Munster are also weakened on the bench.
But this selection is an improvised XV and the combined effect is to weaken Munster in positions that will determine how things will play out five yards either side of the ruck - key territory for Glasgow.
'Manic aggression' key for Munster
It is not all doom and gloom. Glasgow tend to struggle for long patches, especially when the pace quickens in big one-off games.
Players like Leone Nakawara and Niko Matawalu – on the bench to start with but a potential match winner in the last quarter – set the tone with offloads, one-handed carries and extravagant stepping. Munster can’t stand off. They must get among the Glasgow ranks and knock them off stride.
"Manic aggression" is a phrase Paul O’Connell used almost 10 years ago to fire up an Ireland team and it is exactly what is needed to disrupt this unorthodox Glasgow attack.
Munster will also target the Glasgow scrum. World Cup winner BJ Botha has often had to be content with a bench place this season. But it can take a big prize to get the very best out of high-class older players and Munster will bank on getting something special from their South African Rugby World Cup winner.
If Botha can cause problems for Gordon Reid and Dougie Hall at scrum-time, Dave Kilcoyne may well be capable of forcing penalties out of Roussouw De Klerk on the other side.
Munster also have more potential in the lineout, with Ryan’s presence at six giving them an extra top class operator to contest with.
Alongside defence and set-piece, the final ingredient is control from half-back. Duncan Williams and Keatley have not always shone when paired together and Williams in particular can expect to come under massive pressure.
Glasgow will not fear the Munster back division and could opt to flood the ruck. Williams did well in the semi-final. Munster need another career-best performance.
Overall, if Munster can dictate the pattern of the game, cause plenty of set pieces and deny momentum and flow to the Glasgow attack, they have every chance. The O'Connell factor is undoubtedly important. The Ireland captain is the highest-class player on the pitch and an incredibly effective leader to boot. In terms of playing influence, CJ Stander is not far behind.
But those key absentees could just prove too much to surmount and Glasgow, who would be deserving winners having played a unique and highly-entertaining style over the last few seasons, may just shade it in the final quarter.
Prediction:
Glasgow Warriors 28-19 Munster
Munster: F Jones; K Earls, A Smith, D Hurley (captain), S Zebo; I Keatley, D Williams; D Kilcoyne, E Guinazu, BJ Botha; B Holland, P O'Connell; D Ryan, P Butler, CJ Stander.
Replacements: D Casey, J Cronin, S Archer, S Dougall, J O'Donoghue, C Sheridan, JJ Hanrahan, R O'Mahony.
Glasgow: S Hogg, Tommy Seymour, Richie Vernon, P Horne, DTH van der Merwe, F Russell, H Pyrgos, G Reid, D Hall, R de Klerk, L Nakarawa, J Gray, R Harley, R Wilson, J Strauss (captain).
Replacements: F Brown, J Yanuyanutawa, J Welsh, A Kellock,
C Fusaro, N Matawalu, D Weir, S Lamont.
