Munster have history in their favour as they look to book a place in the Guinness Pro12 final on May 30 but must overcome an Ospreys side that has already won at Thomond Park this season.
No side has ever lost a home semi-final in the Pro12, but that statistic is something of a quirk and will not necessarily translate to this fixture. Home teams have, after all, been beaten in finals, while the league has been much more even and competitive this season with four teams finishing within a couple of points of eachother at the top of the table.
Ospreys have beaten Munster twice this season
What of the Ospreys victory in both the previous meetings? They secured that rare win in Limerick back in September and followed that up by doing the same at Liberty Stadium in March. But those matches are equally unlikely to have any great bearing on this result with significant changes to both line-ups in evidence and a generally higher intensity likely.
Recent form is more important. Munster and the Ospreys have been on excellent runs since the end of the Six Nations and the return of their best players. Munster have won four of their last five and would have made it five from five only for a slack five-minute spell at the end of their match against Ulster that resulted in that match ending in a draw. The Ospreys have also hit form as the weather has warmed up, winning their last six in a row.
In terms of the individual match-ups, these are quite similar teams, with both usually tending to rely on intimidating forward packs to get the job done. Work-rate, accuracy and intensity are the watchwords rather than sheer size and power. Those qualities are epitomised by second row talismans Paul O’Connell and Alun-Wyn Jones and that clash is one of several inviting subplots.
On balance, Munster may just feel they have an edge in the back five of the scrum with Donnacha Ryan alongside O’Connell bringing additional power to the engine room and the back-row perhaps having stronger ball-carrying. CJ Stander has been one of the players of the season in the league and should relish this chance to show what he can do before the focus turns to the Rugby World Cup. Munster will also hope that Peter O’Mahony is capable of eclipsing Dan Lydiate.
Key men in Ospreys backline
The Ospreys best hopes of causing an upset lie with a few key skill players at half-back and in midfield. As a combination, Dan Biggar and Rhys Webb are a superior half-back pair to Conor Murray and Ian Keatley with a greater variety of running threat, kicking and passing between them.
Wider out in the centres, Josh Matavsi can draw men and time and pass while Ben John has been an impressive addition to the centre and at 6’5 presents an awkward challenge for Denis Hurley and Andrew Smith. Justin Tipuric’s ability to create quick ball either as a support players or with quick clearouts in the wide channels is also a danger for a Munster defence that can get caught when the pace quickens.
But it has to be said that it bodes well for Munster that the Ospreys were unable to unlock Connacht’s defence when they needed to in the second half at the Sportsground last week, while the presence of Duncan Ryan and BJ Botha could prove important if a slight shift of momentum is needed in the second half.
In terms of sub-plots, the presence of Nigel Owens as referee in a match involving his countrymen could also become controversial if the match proves a close one. Favouritism for one side over the other is not in question but Owens has never shied away from making difficulty calls, sometimes a little too quickly for comfort. Hopefully, it will be one of those games where the referee facilitates the action instead of becoming central to it.
It won't be easy and Munster could be punished for mental lapses of the type that allowed Ulster to score late in both halfs in Ravenhill.
In fact, the Ospreys have an excellent chance of causing an upset. But, with O’Connell possibly playing in one of the final home matches of his career in red, Munster may just prove capable of getting the job done in front of the Thomond Park faithful.
Pro12 Prediction:
Munster 28-26 Ospreys
Munster: Felix Jones; Keith Earls, Andrew Smith, Denis Hurley, Simon Zebo; Ian Keatley, Conor Murray; Dave Kilcoyne, Eusebio Guinazu, Stephen Archer; Donnacha Ryan, Paul O'Connell; Peter O'Mahony (c), Paddy Butler, CJ Stander.
Replacements: Duncan Casey, John Ryan, BJ Botha, Billy Holland, Jack O'Donoghue, Duncan Williams, JJ Hanrahan, Ronan O'Mahony.
Ospreys: Dan Evans; Jeff Hassler, Ben John, Josh Matavesi, Eli Walker; Dan Biggar, Rhys Webb; Nicky Smith, Scott Baldwin, Dmitri Arhip; Tyler Ardron, Alun Wyn Jones (c); Dan Lydiate, Justin Tipuric, Dan Baker.
Replacements: Sam Parry, Marc Thomas, Aaron Jarvis, Rory Thornton, James King, Tom Habberfield, Sam Davies, Jonathan Spratt.
Referee: Nigel Owens (WRU)
