Could Leinster really become European Champions Cup finalists after the season they have had so far?
Stranger things have happened, though not very often.
It is safe to say that victory in Toulon will require Leinster’s best performance of the Matt O’Connor era, and one of their best ever.
Plenty of people this week are tipping them to produce just that but, on any realistic assessment, they are huge underdogs.
After all, Leinster have not registered a victory of note in their main domestic competition all season, and have avoided all the heavyweights in reaching this stage in Europe.
The main reason for the optimism is that Leinster can now field the majority of their key players. The dirt-trackers have had a bad season, but can any team that includes Rob Kearney, Cian Healy, Sean Cronin, Mike Ross, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip be written off?
The star quality in the Leinster front row, back row and back three actually matches up pretty well with what Toulon bring to the table. It is at half-back, second row and in the centres that there are major question marks over Leinster’s ability to compete.
The main issue in the win over Bath was defence. Leinster were filleted up the middle by George Ford and with Frederic Michalak and Matt Giteau at out-half and first centre this time there must be every chance of the exact same thing happening again.
There is also the added complication of Mathieu Bastareaud, who is big and powerful enough to cause havoc a channel further out, even if Leinster do have their defensive ducks in a row.
Poor tactical kicking was also a major issue against Bath and with Leigh Halfpenny, Delon Armitage and Bryan Habana manning the backfield for Toulon, Leinster simply cannot afford the unplanned, speculative punts that allowed Bath to get back into the game.
The third problem has been scoring points. Leinster’s attack has been blunt, and even though Ben Te’o has shown encouraging signs since returning from his arm injury there is little to suggest Leinster will suddenly explode into life with ball in hand. Retaining the ball through phases has been identified as a key. Do Leinster look capable of producing ten or more quick, well organised phases?
There is optimism about the Leinster scrum. Cian Healy has been among the most destructive looseheads in Europe this season, while Mike Ross is more than capable of tying down his side. But Healy will be taking on Carl Hayman and Bakkies Botha on the tighthead side of the Toulon scrum. That is an order of magnitude different to bullying Bath at Lansdowne Road.
There is also little to indicate that the Leinster lineout will suddenly become a major asset either offensively or defensively.
The final factor is gameplan. O’Connor is between a rock and a hard place because while it's clear that Leinster have too many weak defenders to play a loose game, and do not have real attacking incisiveness either, they also cannot expect set-piece dominance.
He has set out Leinster’s stall and indicated that a relatively conservative approach is likely, and that will probably be mixed with quick bursts of raised tempo in the style of Joe Schmidt’s Ireland. That will require a tactical kicking performance that looks beyond Leinster’s half-backs and a set-piece performance that it is difficult to see Leinster producing.
Toulon may not be as good as last season’s version, and miss Jonny Wilkinson, but they are a different proposition with the scent of silverware in their nostrils and should have enough front-foot ball to find Leinster’s weaker defenders at their weaksest.
All told, they look capable of building a lead and then frustrating Leinster with supersub Steffon Armitage breaking up any rhythm that threatens to develop in the final quarter.
Prediction: Toulon 28-12 Leinster
Leinster: Kearney; McFadden, Te'o, Madigan, Fitzgerald; Gopperth, Boss; Healy, Cronin, Ross; Toner, McCarthy, Murphy, O'Brien, Heaslip (capt).
Toulon: Halfpenny; Armitage, Bastareaud, Giteau, Habana; Michalak,Tillous-Borde; Chiocci, Guirado, Hayman; Botha, Williams; J Smith, Fernandez-Lobbe, Masoe.
