Leinster v Bath, Aviva Stadium, 3.15pm
At the moment, Leinster head coach Matt O’Connor is the boy with his finger in the dyke. The tiniest increase in pressure could bring everything crashing down.
That pressure has built during a season in which the province have not managed a single result of note in the Pro12 and are fifth, outside the play-off places, as things stand.
Not for the first time this season, the Champions Cup could prove the perfect safety valve.
The return of a battalion of Irish internationals adds to the sense that this week could be the turning point in Leinster’s season.
The omens could hardly be better. Not only do Leinster have a raft of returning star names, they are getting their Ireland stars back in near perfect condition.
The trio of Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien and Luke Fitzgerald are returning in better shape than they have been at any stage this season. Tuned up after starring at the back end of Ireland’s RBS 6 Nations campaign, but far from exhausted.
Healy and O’Brien are of particular importance to this match-up as Leinster look to have a significant advantage in the pack. Dave Attwood and Francois Louw are formidable forwards from among the Bath ranks but the Irish province have the edge in the other positions.
The scrum could prove particularly useful. Paul James is a savvy operator on the loosehead side but Mike Ross should be able to do enough to tie him down and give Healy every chance of decisively winning his match-up with Kane Palma-Newport from loosehead.
Leinster also have, for the first time this season, a full battery of ball-carriers in Healy, Sean Cronin, Heaslip and O’Brien. It should make a difference up front and, just possibly, open things up for Jimmy Gopperth and co in the backline.
To begin with, though, O'Connor's side are likely to play a conservative game. The likes of Jonathan Joseph, Horacio Agulla and Anthony Watson can thrive in loose conditions. George Ford also has the quality to create problems for Leinster if given the opportunity in a fast-paced match.
The likes of Ross and Devin Toner are key in the set-piece, but very vulnerable in unstructured situations. Up against Joseph, the English game’s rising star, Ben Te’o needs to be note perfect in defence.
There are weaknesses in the Bath armoury as well. Ford is vulnerable in the defensive line and if Leinster can keep the error count down, they should be able to find him. Matt Banahanis is powerful on the front foot but can struggle to cope with testing kicking.
The danger, as Ireland found out, is that in taking a tight, forward-oriented approach, Leinster could become too conservative and narrow. Having Eoin Reddan in reserve to move through the gears and open the game up could prove crucial.
But it shouldn’t come too that. This is a different Leinster to the beleaguered domestic version and, as proved the case throughout the pool phase, they should have more than have enough to see off a credible but eminently beatable opponent.
Prediction: Leinster 28-18 Bath
Leinster: Rob Kearney; Fergus McFadden, Ben Te'o, Ian Madigan; Luke Fitzgerald; Jimmy Gopperth, Issac Boss; Cian Healy, Sean Cronin, Mike Ross, Devin Toner, Mike McCarthy, Jordi Murphy, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip (capt).
Replacements: Richardt Strauss, Jack McGrath, Marty Moore, Tom Denton, Dominic Ryan, Eoin Reddan, Gordon D'Arcy, Zane Kirchner.
Bath: Anthony Watson; HoracioAgulla, Jonathan Joseph, Kyle Eastmond, Matt Banahan; George Ford, Micky Young; Paul James, Rob Webber, Kane Palma-Newport, Stuart Hooper (capt), Dave Attwood, Carl Fearns, Francois Louw, Leroy Houston.
Replacements: Ross Batty, Nick Auterac, Max Lahiff, Matt Garvey, AlafotiFaosiliva, Peter Stringer, Sam Burgess, Tom Homer.
