By Tadhg Peavoy
Leinster v Ospreys, RDS Arena, Saturday, 1715 (TG4/Sky)
Trips to Treviso are fraught with danger and the potential of ending up with egg on your face when taking the Italian side for granted are very real. That is exactly what happened to Leinster last weekend as they were bossed around the park by a demonic display from the Italian pack that made the Irish eight look very ordinary indeed.
On the back of that, the Leinster backline lived off scraps and failed to gain any sort of meaningful line speed, and played with a lack of confidence and fragility throughout.
As it was Matt O’Connor’s men escaped with a draw and in truth can be very thankful to have got it.
A performance of a similar ilk this weekend against league leaders Ospreys will end in defeat; all of it has to improve for Leinster, and you would imagine O’Connor channeled his inner Alex Ferguson to ‘hairdry’ his charges in the wake of last weekend and ensure they know that is not good enough from the four-time champions.
However, it’s only half a hatchet job on the starting XV following the defeat, with just six changes in the starting XV: three up front and three out wide.
Fergus McFadden, Ian Madigan, Eoin Reddan, Dominic Ryan, Mike McCarthy and Bryan Byrne all come into the team.
However, the presence of Rhys Ruddock and Gordon D’Arcy on the bench adds another extra dimension as well, and gives the Dublin-based team two superb impact options.
Visiting Ospreys are massively reduced in strength due to international duty with Scott Baldwin, Dan Biggar, Aaron Jarvis, Alun-Wyn Jones, James King, Justin Tipuric and Rhys Webb all unavailable. Added to that they are missing a staggering amount through injury – 12 in total: Morgan Allen, Ashley Beck, Ryan Bevington, Ifereimi Boladau, Jeff Hassler, Duncan Jones, Ross Jones, Nicky Smith, Tom Smith, Jonathan Spratt, De Kock Steenkamp and Eli Walker.
With all those absentees taken into account, the Welsh side are not the same force and Leinster definitely go into the tie as favourites.
But they are still dangerous, especially in the centre, where Andrew Bishop and Hanno Dirksen are always a threat. Likewise Sam Davies offers superb tempo from out-half. Up front, Joe Bearman will be the key man at the breakdown as the Welsh side look to disrupt possession like Treviso did.
Leinster need to improve a lot of things to avoid another result that is going to dent their confidence. The scrum in particular needs to dramatically improve, that is issue No 1, and without it the rest of their game will struggle. In addition, fringe defence and first-up tackles around the breakdown must be better, and indeed securing quick possession from the breakdown on their own ball needs attention.
With those facets addressed, Leinster will have a far more secure platform to launch raids into the Ospreys half. When there Jimmy Gopperth must control the tempo with far more certainty and fluidity than he did in Italy. Ian Madigan’s presence outside him will help in that sense, with the first centre offering a second pair of hands to play-make. Add in home advantage and one would have to think Leinster will improve enough to claim a win.
Verdict: Leinster to win by eight.
Leinster: Zane Kirchner, Darragh Fanning, Fergus McFadden, Ian Madigan, Dave Kearney, Jimmy Gopperth, Eoin Reddan; Michael Bent, Bryan Byrne, Tadhg Furlong, Mike McCarthy, Kane Douglas, Dominic Ryan, Jordi Murphy, Jack Conan.
Replacements: James Tracy, Peter Dooley, Jamie Hagan, Tom Denton, Rhys Ruddock, Isaac Boss, Noel Reid, Gordon D'Arcy
Ospreys: Dan Evans, Aisea Natoga, Andrew Bishop, Hanno Dirksen, Tom Grabham, Sam Davies, Martin Roberts; Marc Thomas, Sam Parry, Dmitri Arhip, Lloyd Peers (captain), Tyler Ardron, Joe Bearman, Sam Lewis, Dan Baker.
Replacements: Scott Otten, Gareth Thomas, Cai Griffiths, Rynier Bernardo, Ieuan Jones, Tom Habberfield, Josh Matavesi, Dafydd Howells.
Connacht v Scarlets, the Sportsground, Saturday, 1930 (TG4/Sky)
The importance of this game for both sides cannot be underestimated. With seven automatic qualification spots available for the Champions Cup, Connacht currently sit in that seventh position, with Scarlets breathing down their neck. Just a point separate the sides and a win here for the Westerners would put a lovely bit of breathing space between the sides.
Of course there’s a long road to be travelled before close of business in the regular season on 17 May, but as well as four crucial points on offer here, a victory for either side will also be a significant mental boost in the battle ahead.
There is also previous in this encounter with last season’s clash at Parc y Scarlets effectively ending Connacht’s push for Europe, with the Welsh side coming out 32-30 victors in an enthralling game of running rugby.
In fact, even more damaging to Connacht’s aspirations was the 24-21 victory Scarlets secured in Galway the previous November. In short, these two sides are bitter rivals now and the game should be ferociously contested.
Pat Lam has the luxury of recalling Ireland internationals Kieran Marmion and Rodney Ah You for the tie; however, Robbie Henshaw is a late withdrawal with a hip flexor injury.
Along with Henshaw, Jason Harris-Wright is out and is replaced by Tom McCartney in the front row – another blow, but not an insurmountable one.
In addition, having Andrew Browne and Eoin McKeon back in the XV are also positive changes.
Scarlets have nine players out on international duty and this makes it a fantastic time for Connacht to face them. They still have plenty of talent on display though. Up front Phil John, John Snyman and John Barclay are the spine. And out wide Kristian Phillips, Regan King and Michael Tagicakibau are three potential match winners.
They have strength all over and play a very balanced style between both a tight game when conditions demand it and an ability to spread wide with a traditional Welsh desire for reckless abandon.
There is rarely much between the sides, and this one will be no different, with surely not much more than a score in the game. Lam will have targeted the game as a must-win when the fixture list came out and you can be sure they will have some special moves in the backline planned. Scarlets have won five on the trot against Connacht, but all signs this weekend point to that run coming to an end.
Verdict: Connacht to win by three.
Connacht: Mils Muliaina, Danie Poolman, Bundee Aki, Dave McSharry, Matt Healy, Jack Carty,
Kieran Marmion; Denis Buckley, Tom McCartney, Rodney Ah You, Quinn Roux, Andrew Browne, John Muldoon, Eoin McKeon, George Naoupu.
Replacements: Dave Heffernan, Ronan Loughney, Finlay Bealham, Mick Kearney, Willie Faloon, John Cooney, Craig Ronaldson, Darragh Leader.
Scarlets: Steffan Evans, Harry Robinson, Michael Tagicakibau, Regan King, Kristian Phillips, Steven Shingler, Aled Davies; Phil John, Kirby Myhill, Peter Edwards, George Earle, Johan Snyman, Aaron Shingler, James Davies, John Barclay (captain).
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Wyn Jones, 18 Jacobie Adriaanse, 19 Lewis Rawlins, 20 Rory Pitman, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Josh Lewis, 23 Gareth Owen
