By Brendan Cole
The Champions Cup may have gotten off to a more low-key start than the old Heineken Cup used to but it is throwing up fascinating head-to-head clashes just as its predecessor did.
Ulster v Toulon is just such a clash, even though last week’s defeat in Leicester means Ulster are now rated as outsiders in terms of being able to negotiate their way to the knockout stages of the competition (it will be a major surprise if Toulon fail to do the same).
But right now, these two sides are relatively evenly matched and Toulon can expect a searching examination in front of an amped-up Ravenhill crowd.
Ulster's track record against big French sides is also worth remembering, with the likes of Stade Francais and Toulouse falling victim to the northern province when in their pomp.
Aside from all that, Toulon have shown some average form this season and no longer boast that perfect blend of Jonny Wilkinson, the best game manager in rugby, and the club game's most powerful pack.
Matt Giteau now holds the reins at 10 and while the Australian is a buzzier presence and a better improviser, it remains to be seen whether or not he is the right type for this particular team.
Toulon have also brought Leigh Halfpenny in at full-back to primarily act as a place-kicker. As has been pointed out, Halfpenny carries a lot less than some other full-backs.
And even though that tendency was spotted in international rugby, Toulon will likely be just as happy to let Mathieu Bastareaud have the outside channels to himself in this clash.
Aside from the unique challenge of controlling Bastareaud and matching the pack’s sheer power, Steffon Armitage’s turnovers also provide Toulon with a crucial means of asserting control.
Can Ulster resist being caught in the Toulon vice? Do they dare run the ball with Armitage and that strong Carl Hayman-led scrum lying in wait?
The temptation to try to release the likes of Tommy Bowe and Jared Payne, two of their best, early and often is obvious. But Ulster may well be better served by refusing to be sucked into running the ball too often, and instead back their own tackling and turnover capacity against a Toulon side that will not enjoy taking hard hits and battling for ruck ball in front of a baying Ravenhill crowd.
If Ulster can make it painful enough, they may find that Toulon lack the will for this particular lunchtime encounter.
But while the opportunity to win is there, and for all that Ulster have so far adapted well to the loss and injury-enforced absence of some of their most influential performers, they may find the gap in class in key areas that bit to big to bridge.
Prediction: Ulster 15-29 Toulon
Ulster: Ludik; Bowe, Payne, Olding, Gilroy; Jackson, Marshall; Warwick, Best (capt), Herbst; Stevenson, van der Merwe; Diack, Henry, Wilson
Replacements: Herring, Black, Fitzpatrick, Ross, Williams, Heaney, Humphreys, Cave
Toulon: Halfpenny; Armitage, Bastareaud, Mermoz, Habana; Giteau, Claasens; Menini, Guiardo, Hayman (capt); Suta, Taofifenua; Fernandez Lobbe, Armitage, Masoe
Replacements: Burden, Barcella, Chilachava, Botha, O'Connor, Williams, Tillous-Borde, Smith
