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Leinster must assume London Irish will take eight points from their back-to-back games against Brive, and that makes their clash with Llanelli must win on Saturday, writes Brendan Cole.
The pair of fixtures against Llanelli looked like it might provide a source of fairly easy points for Leinster a month or two ago but with key man Jonny Sexton ruled out and Llanelli in good form, Michael Cheika's team could be vulnerable to slipping up.
As he showed for Ireland against South Africa, the young St Mary’s man has become a real player of stature over the last year, plugging the gaps in his game and improving the already strong facets.
Aussie utility back Shaun Berne is a solid pro but can’t be expected to have the same impact as the man he replaces. Sexton's contribution to making the ‘thin blue line’ one of the best defences in Europe should in particular not be underestimated.
That means more pressure for the rest of the team’s key players. From Jamie Heaslip, Rob Kearney and Brian O’Driscoll, Leinster need the big plays even more while Leo Cullen’s obdurate leadership and Nathan Hines’ steel will be crucial. Across the team, each man will have to work harder.
Llanelli – open approach
In front of a home crowd and with an open approach to the game, Llanelli must be denied room to play. That means controlling their supply of ball, getting in out-half Stephen Jones’ face and putting the Scarlets pack on the back foot.
The Leinster eight are a confident pack with plenty of substance but Llanelli, led by a very canny operator in Simon Easterby, will require plenty of subduing in front of a home crowd. Captain and number eight David Lyons – the massive Australian carrying specialist – is another obvious threat.
In tandem with Heaslip and the second row pair, Kevin McLaughlin’s tackling and Sean O’Brien’s excellent rucking and carrying should help make that happen.
In terms of scoring points, Berne’s lack of running threat will no doubt have been noted by the Llanelli brains trust. But Brian O’Driscoll will have Sean Lamont opposite him instead of the high class – but injured - Regan King.
The Ireland captain’s offloading and ability to draw defenders, along with Eoin Reddan’s capacity to spot gaps near the ruck and work the blindside, are among the potential trump cards.
If either can link with the back three trio of Rob Kearney, Shane Horgan and Isa Nacewa, Leinster will have themselves a promising source of scores.
Leinster may need eight points over two fixtures
Given the lie of the land, Leinster might at this point accept playing well over two games and coming away with five points or so, depending on how London Irish fare over the course of their two games with Brive. However, they must assume the worst – a double for Irish – and target at least eight points and preferably nine from this pair of fixtures.
A big ask, but Leinster are the current Champions, in fine form from one to fifteen and backed by a strong bench.
You suspect they may just be able to pull it off.
Prediction: Llanelli 13-21 Leinster
Llanelli Scarlets: Daniel Evans; Andy Fenby, Sean Lamont, Jonathan Davies, Lee Williams; Stephen Jones, Martin Roberts; Iestyn Thomas, Ken Owens, Deacon Manu, Lou Reed, Dominic Day, Simon Easterby, Richie Pugh, David Lyons (capt).
Replacements: Emyr Phillips, Phil John, Jamie Corsi, Vernon Cooper, Rob McCusker, Tavis Knoyle, Rhys Priestland, Gareth Maule.
Leinster: Rob Kearney, Shane Horgan, Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy, Isa Nacewa, Shaun Berne, Eoin Reddan, Cian Healy, John Fogarty, CJ van der Linde, Leo Cullen (capt), Nathan Hines, Kevin McLaughlin, Sean O'Brien, Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: Bernard Jackman, Mike Ross, Stan Wright, Malcolm O'Kelly, Stephen Keogh, Paul O'Donohoe, Fergus McFadden, Girvan Dempsey
