by Brendan Cole
Having got their team selection wrong in key areas in the first Test, the Lions need to use this 80 minutes against the Emerging Springboks wisely.
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Saturday saw the Test side narrowly failing to complete what would have been one of the greatest comebacks the game has ever seen. Now, their chance of winning the Test series hangs by a thread.
It is important not to let the closing flourish colour the thinking too much.
Prior to that brilliant final quarter; weak tackling, dreadful maul defence, poor scrummaging and poor finishing effectively cost them the match. Bad decision making from the bench – with Phil Vickery given far too long to sort himself out in the scrum – also cost them dearly.
There are now places up for grabs across the team. In the forwards, Graham Rowntree – the Lions forwards coach – spoke about changes in every row of the scrum in the aftermath of that Test defeat. Out-half and the left wing will also come under the microscope this evening.
Obviously, some of the changes will be made regardless of what happens against the Emerging Springboks. It is guaranteed that Adam Jones will replace Vickery as the starting tighthead. However, with Andrew Sheridan's back not 100%, Tim Payne could yet find himself on the bench in the second Test. John Hayes is not a realistic option at loosehead and with his height making him vulnerable at tightead this may turn out to be the only match he figures in. That said, if he does well and the lineout really fires, the coaching staff may have to think again.
Hooker has also been cited as a likely selection change by some. That looks a touch unfair. The dodgy logic behind punishing Lee Mears for failing to survive against a loosehead in Tendai Mtawirira that had Vickery, thoroughly – if illegally - dominated will not escape anyone with even mild experience of the front row.
Tighthead is the cornerstone of the team, and the front row in particular. It is one of the oldest rules in rugby that without a solid foundation there, any team is sunk and having done little wrong, Mears deserves a chance to play alongside a functioning one. But it is all up for grabs and Matthew Rees will get a chance to make a case tonight.
In the second row, Simon Shaw should still be a strong candidate though he is on the bench this evening with Donncha O'Callaghan and Nathan Hines the men given the chance to shine in the starting jerseys. O'Callaghan did well on Saturday, coming on as the Lions' sails were filling. The Lions may seek to boost Paul O'Connell's form by fielding the Ireland Test partnership.
At number eight, Andy Powell will also hope he can make an impact though his ability to do well against the South African scrum back five's strong tackling is questionable. Much like Sebastian Chabal, he is too frequently a 'lightning rod liability'.
David Wallace and Jamie Heaslip are seen as vulnerable by some but if there are changes, it may be that Tom Croft is the one to lose out, despite his brace of tries. The young Englishman was at fault for John Smit's early try – coming up sideways off his line and slipping off the tackle. The need to stiffen the pack against the Springbok maul is also hard to ignore. Looking at improving their own strengths, the Lions may think again about combining Martyn Williams and Wallace in the wing-forward positions.
Mike Phillips will start the next Test at nine but out-half Ronan O'Gara will be glad of a chance to play alongside a speedier scrum-half than Mike Blair with Harry Ellis set to play tonight. O'Gara may just be able to force his way into the Test team, most likely with a top drawer display of tactical kicking.
In the centres, Gordon D'Arcy and Riki Flutey have zero chance of making the side after the heroics of the Roberts/O'Driscoll pairing on Saturday though substitute duty may be up for grabs with injuries and form affecting two thirds of the back three.
Both Lee Byrne and Ugo Monye are doubts. Byrne's injury may heal sufficiently but if it doesn't, Rob Kearney can step in and do a very good job in his stead and he is rested this evening. Monye's place is threatened by his failure to finish two key chances on Saturday. The Harlequin looked a fish out of water on two occasions in the fast and tight environs near the corners with ball in hand and the nimbler and smarter Luke Fitzgerald and Shane Williams are both possible replacements.
Starting on the left wing tonight, Fitzgerald is the more likely to come in having shown plenty of good form so far on this Tour though Williams can't be written off with the Lions needing some spark.
At full-back, Keith Earls can continue to embellish his reputation and should again benefit from the extra time and space available in the position.
The individual goals are clear but, obviously, the Lions need to play as a collective if they are to function and that has been well flagged by captain Ronan O'Gara in the build up.
That is particularly the case in light of the fact that this opposition is strong and may scent blood after Saturday's opening hour. Not many of these players have a reputation to speak of in European rugby circles but with four Blue Bulls at the heart of the pack, the Lions forwards can certainly expect them to be a handful at the breakdown.
In the backs, Zane Kirchner, who was expected by some to start the Tests at 15, is another Bulls star capable of doing significant damage. Fly-half Earl Rose, also seen as a Test contender, will also be keen to show what he can do against international class opposition in his favoured position.
In 1997, the Lions won this fixture 22-51. A similarly high points total is on the cards tonight with both sides likely to be keen on playing as much rugby as possible. O'Gara will, of course, also be keen on showing off the effectiveness of his boot.
Aside from taking the win, the Lions need their Test candidates to stake a claim
