15. Lee Byrne v Francois Steyn
Byrne has set an exceptional standard at full-back over the last two years in Europe. Bar one or two errors, he has maintained that level on Tour. He saved the Lions from what would have been an ignominious defeat in the first game. Tackling is occasionally the Achilles heel.
Steyn is something of an enigma in South African rugby. Powerful and possessed of exceptional skills, his positional sense and team play have been questioned. The 22-year-old has been fitted in across the backline without making any position his own in his career so far. Still, iconic plays such as the two drop goals to beat Australia in the Tri-Nations opener in 2007 – one of which was a mammoth 42-metre success - mark him out as one to watch.
Verdict: Both have big boots. Byrne is consistently excellent and can excel on both the front and back foot, but Steyn’s strength and eye for the big play make him a danger. Plenty to offer from both men.
14/11. Tommy Bowe v Brian Habana
Like Byrne, Monaghan native Bowe has lit up the Tour since day 
one, galloping through South African midfield defences in match after match. This is a big step up, with the toughest challenge he has ever faced opposite him in Brian Habana. That said, it isn’t all about the head to head and Bowe could easily make an impression arriving between the centres.
The Springbok wing has blistering pace and, crucially, he knows how to use it. Capable of scoring from anywhere on the field he is a master of the intercept and keeping the ball away from him may be the best policy. A man to keep a lid on rather than target.
Verdict: Bowe is in the form of his life but Habana’s proven quality must represent an edge for the Boks.
13. Brian O’Driscoll v Adrian Jacobs
O’Driscoll is arguably the Lions’ key player – the man charged with making the plays that will ensure the South Africans are denied width and potentially their key points-generator. A welcome aspect of this Tour has been how O’Driscoll has repeatedly shown that the myth he is now primarily a defensive weapon is just that. Needs must, and with Ireland, and latterly Leinster, playing conservative rugby he simply hasn’t has as many chances in attack. But he is an attacking talent to savour, and this series – against quality opposition but with a strong team around him – may be his best chance to cement that reputation.
The selection of Adrian Jacobs is possibly a hint that the Boks are set to play it fairly safe out wide. Frequently a sub for both his province and country in his career so far, he is a scuttler and a safe carrier. The idea may be to play close to the gainline, denying O’Driscoll chances to make telling hits, and retain the ball with carries back towards the Springbok back five (forwards). That isn’t to say Jacobs can’t play – just that his brief will likely be to minimise the impact of the Lions’ best back in both attack and defence.
Verdict: Huge advantage for the Lions. O’Driscoll is a class above and if he gets in the game, the Boks are in trouble.
12. Jamie Roberts v Jean De Villiers
Roberts is another who has played himself into the Test side with a series of brilliant displays on tour. Again, this is a cut above and he must prove that he can cross the gainline against the full Springbok Test side. Big positive is his obviously good relationship with O’Driscoll, who doesn’t always gel with is centre partners. If they can link up, the Lions will be in good shape.
The big, blond De Villiers has been the subject of furious speculation about a move to Munster for much of the season, though that now appears unlikely. Another man with size and a bit of class to his game, he is very highly thought of in South Africa. But he is short of games in recent months and that may be key. If the Lions are wary of going wide and fancy themselves to beat the Lions through winning the physical battle and the boot, the Springboks will build their backline play around his power and pace, angling everything inwards and away from O’Driscoll.
Verdict: De Villiers’ lack of game time could count against him, and with Roberts in a rich vein of form the centre may prove a productive area.
11/14. Ugo Monye v JP Pietersen
A contentious selection for the Lions with Luke Fitzgerald left out. 
Monye has power and pace but his handling and decision-making in defence are sometimes suspect. But it has to be said that Monye’s form on tour so far has been excellent and his try-scoring record is very good.
Pietersen is the epitome of under-rated, with the vast majority of the attention falling on the man over the far side, Brian Habana. Just 22, Pietersen seems to have been around forever. He’s safe, big, strong and can play. Kicking is sometimes seen as a weakness and may be tested.
Verdict: Pietersen is the more proven man and Monye must show he can live with the step up. Errors will kill either side in this match, and the England wing has made more than a few to date.
10. Stephen Jones v Ruan Pienaar
Jones’ selection may be a hint that the Lions will try to stretch the Springboks with at least some ball-in-hand play and, given the quality they have in the centre, they have little choice. The Welshman is naturally a ‘heads up’ player and is adept at helping his side control possession. As with the old Wasps style, if the Lions get any sort of lead they may seek to hang on to the ball as much as possible in a bid to take the shape and sting out of their opponents.
The Boks hope Pienaar is the answer to what is seen as the problem position for them. Superb in the November series, he is classy and fluent – and a stark contrast to the all-action style of his predecessor Butch James. Like De Villiers at 12, question marks hang over his form with a recent injury hindering his preparation. Goal-kicking is also not always rock solid.
Verdict: Jones endured a difficult day’s kicking in his last outing and must sort it out but the Lions will expect him to produce and can build a game around him. How Pienaar will fare is more of an unknown. While he shone in November, he won’t have an armchair ride here. Not guaranteed to perform by any means but having the help of Du Preez at scrum-half is immensely important.
9. Mike Phillips v Fourie Du Preez
There are some who doubt Phillips but this Tour has proved beyond doubt that he is the best the four nations have to offer. 6’3” with superb hands, a good eye, and plenty of pace, he is a massive threat to any fringe defence. Hall-mark of his career is that he has taken chances as they have arisen and this may prove no different. Alongside O’Driscoll, and possibly Heaslip, at the top of the list of potential match-winners for the Lions.
In Fourie Du Preez, Phillips faces the man some consider the current best rugby player in the world. It’s not hard to see why. Du Preez is virtually error-free in the most pressurised skill position on the park and has a near-perfect combination of size, power, speed and game management.
Verdict: Both sides are strong and it may come down to whichever pack can consistently win the breakdown. The Springboks may just have the edge there.
1/3. Gethin Jenkins v John Smit
Can Jenkins upset Smit? The Lions have become accustomed to 
dominating the scrum on this Tour and the power advantage shown in the provincial games should not be dismissed out of hand. South African scrummaging was once a hallmark but the game has changed, especially in the South – call it ‘Australia-fication’. The Super 14 and Tri-Nations are arguably not as testing as the European equivalents. Aside from that clash, Jenkins’ work around the park is top drawer and he can play a role in the work-rate and hitting battle.
Smit is a World Cup-winning captain and a world-class operator in many facets of the game. However, the Boks were pressured by Wales at the scrum in November and the jury is out on how he will fare at tighthead against this composite English and Welsh Lions front row. Not as big a play contributor as Mtawira or Du Plessis, but his leadership is considered key by the Boks.
Verdict: Absolutely vital clash. If Jenkins can gain the Lions a toehold against the Boks captain and tighthead, they will be in great shape to pull off a first Test win. The Welshman may just have the power.
2. Lee Mears v Bismarck Du Plessis
Mears’ throwing should be a quietly effective weapon for the Lions and should help nullify the Springbok lineout threat and, indirectly, allow the Lions to press through the maul. Though he is not supersized, he can play and his contribution around the park may tell. Has made the odd poor decision but overall, a solid foot soldier.
Du Plessis has been accommodated by Smit’s move to tighthead and will be expected to contribute dynamism around the park with his tackling and carrying usually significantly higher. Like many a dynamo hooker, he can also make the odd error. Lineout throwing is reasonable, but Smit may well take the darts and allow the younger man to focus on the game on the ground.
Verdict: Unlikely to be a decisive area but both men can make plays and there is a chance one will end up on the highlight reel.
3/1. Phil Vickery v Tendai Mtawira
Huge contrast between the veteran out for one last shot at glory and the young ‘beast’ Mtawira.
Vickery was not expected to claim the Lions tighthead spot but his
displays on Tour – not least his game as captain against Western Province (Lions w23-26) – have won him this spot. Lions will need leaders and Vickery’s quick realisation that crossing the gainline was key for the pressured Lions saw him take it upon himself to do so several times in quick succession. The Lions will need plenty of that.
Mtawira is one of the next generation of props. Like Jenkins, he is a powerhouse and will be expected to make plays around the park. That said, and despite the crowd’s cry of ‘Beast’ whenever he gets on the ball, his carrying doesn’t always add up to a huge hill of beans.
Verdict: Undoing the experienced Vickery’s technique may prove a bridge too far in the scrum, but Mtawira’s dynamic rucking and tackling could be key. The Lions will hope Vickery can show the same energy he did against WP.
4/5. Alun-Wyn Jones and Paul O’Connell v Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield
Botha and Matfield have done virtually everything it is possible for a South African player to do, except win a Test series against the Lions. Neither has shown any sign of age and the blend of the class of Matfield and the hard edge of Botha still makes them the type of lock combination opposition coaches dream about.
For Lions captain O’Connell, and Jones, this match is about finding some form, quickly. Neither has set the world alight against the provincial sides. Must be said that evenly matched games at the top level are where the second rows can really make a difference. The Test series will be attritional – a huge physical and mental test. This pair is the best the four nations can offer. Can they play as a pair?
Verdict: Springboks come in holding all the aces and the younger Lions pair has it to do. Destiny of the Test series may rest on whether they can be effective together over three games. O’Connell’s will to win should not be underestimated, though his tendency to ‘overtry’, sometimes in the wrong areas of the field, must be curbed.
6/7. Tom Croft, David Wallace and Jamie Heaslip v Heinrich Brussow, Juan Smith and Pierre Spies
Brussow will wear six but operate as an openside and having posed huge problems for the Lions when playing against them for the Cheetahs, the Lions will have to ensure their contact work is 100%. Smith is one of those ‘no mistakes, ever’ players that are so invaluable to any coach; work-rate and self-less playing style make him a key cog in the Boks’ machine.
Spies is the magnet for much ‘superman’ nonsense from the South African media but he may prove less effective if this series is tight. That said, he is big and remarkably quick. If the Lions are getting over-run, he will be leading the charge.
This is the Lions’ most balanced looking back row but is it their 
best? Croft adds a lot to the lineout and with Mears’ superb throwing, the Boks may struggle to get enough men in the air to really take the Lions apart. The test is for him to prove himself on the ground. He has shown pace and flashes of quality but the Lions need him to grind and eliminate the loose play. Tired, sloppy-looking play will not cut it against the super efficient Boks.
The argument for playing both Williams and Wallace, possibly with the more versatile and instinctive Williams at six, may yet win out.
For Heaslip – under-rated by some - the challenge is to generate the odd bit of panic by getting in behind the Boks and, just maybe, get on the score-sheet. Some players have the try-scoring knack and the Lions will need every point they can get.
Verdict: With Stephen Ferris a massive loss, this area must go down as advantage Springboks, even with Schalk Burger out of the picture. Like the second rows, this Lions 6/7/8 combo will have to dig deep and find something special.
Overall Verdict: The Lions are stronger in the centre and can focus their attacking play through there. The back five of the Springbok scrum, along with Fourie Du Preez, is exceptional however and if the Lions mix it with them too frequently, they could be in trouble. A mixture of solid kicking and raiding up the middle when it's really on may be the best bet.
For the Boks, the idea may be to keep the play away from O'Driscoll by pointing their centres in at the Lions out-half and back-row. There, power at the breakdown can generate chances for Fourie Du Preez to really test the Lions' tackling and organisation. They will also hope to establish a strong kicking game.
The Lions hardened scrum and maul may allow them to get the Boks on the back foot at key points.
All in all, it is vital for the Lions to match the Boks from numbers 4-8 but if they can do so, and generate enough zip in attack themselves, the first Test can be theirs with the Boks lack of match-practice possibly telling.
by Brendan Cole
